It's a big Week 10 in college football, with the biggest game taking place in the Big Ten. Ohio State travels to Happy Valley to take on Penn State in a top-five showdown.
For the rest of the college football landscape, it's an interesting week from a betting perspective, especially in the totals market.
Welcome to our Week 10 Pace Report, where we'll focus on Tulane vs. Charlotte, Stanford vs. NC State and UCLA vs. Nebraska.
Here are the pace numbers for each team through Week 9.
If you're new to our Pace Report, we'll take an in-depth look at the totals market using yards per play, Success Rate, Finishing Drives, plays per minute and more.
Using those metrics — along with a look at the weather and key injuries — the goal is to hopefully help bettors beat the market before Friday and Saturday morning.
Let's kick Week 9 off with three totals to target.
Tulane vs. Charlotte Prediction
| Tulane Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-16 -110 | 55.5 -110o / -110u | -750 |
| Charlotte Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+16 -110 | 55.5 -110o / -110u | +525 |
The pace of this game is going to be slow, but that's not the only factor to consider when betting totals.
Tulane should be able to do whatever it wants offensively on Thursday night because Charlotte is horrible defensively. The 49ers rank 87th nationally in EPA/Play allowed, but their biggest weakness comes against the run.
For the season, Charlotte is allowing 5.2 yards per carry and ranks 100th in Rushing Success Rate allowed. That's terrible news against a Tulane team that runs the ball on 64.4% of its offensive plays and does so very successfully.
Last weekend against North Texas, Tulane ran for 297 yards and 6.3 yards per carry as a team because it has one of the best Group of Five running backs in Makhi Hughes.
Last season, Hughes had some of the best rushing numbers in college football and has only improved this season. He's averaging 5.7 yards per carry and 4.1 yards per carry after contact.
Because he's been so successful on the ground, he has allowed quarterback Darian Mensah to find a lot of openings in the passing game. Mensah has attempted over 20 passes in only four games this season but is averaging 9.6 yards per attempt.
Tulane uses one of the highest rates of play-action in college football, which works well for Mensah because his yards per attempt almost doubles in play-action (12.3) versus normal dropback situations (6.6).
On the other side, Charlotte's offense hasn't been very good from a Success Rate standpoint, but it's explosive. The 49ers sit outside the top 100 in Success Rate but are sixth in the nation in Explosiveness.
That's mainly because the quarterback position is complete chaos for other 49ers. It's either a big play down the field, or they're turning it over to the defense — and it doesn't really matter who's under center.
About that time to post a MASSIVE graph on PFF Big time throw rates and turnover worthy plays for FBS QBs with 80+ dropbacks. Idk where to start. DJ LAGWAY! Doesn't matter who the QB is for Charlotte, those dropbacks are CHAOTIC #CFB#CollegeFootballpic.twitter.com/McOPyvOVQZ
— CFBNumbers (@CFBNumbers) October 24, 2024
Defensively, Tulane hasn't been great at preventing big plays, ranking 76th in Explosiveness allowed. Don't be surprised to see the 49ers pick up a lot of chunk plays on Thursday night.
I have 59.8 points projected for this game, so I like the value on over 55.5 points.
Pick: Over 55.5 (bet365)
Stanford vs. NC State Prediction
| Stanford Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+9.5 -108 | 46.5 -108o / -112u | +270 |
| NC State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-9.5 -112 | 46.5 -108o / -112u | -340 |
The totals in Stanford games continue to be too low given how fast it's playing and how terrible it is defensively.
Once again, the Cardinal will have to travel across the country to take on an ACC opponent. The last time they traveled to the Eastern Time Zone, Notre Dame hung 49 points on them.
Stanford is allowing 6.2 yards per play this season, which is 107th in the nation. That average rises even more to 6.5 when playing outside Palo Alto.
The problem is twofold: the Cardinal can't limit their opponent's scoring opportunities, and their secondary is terrible.
Stanford ranks 120th in Finishing Drives Allowed with their opponents averaging 4.5 points per scoring opportunity. Their opponents score at least three points 90% of the time after entering the red zone.
Opposing teams have also thrown all over the Cardinal secondary this season. Stanford is allowing nine yards per attempt to opposing quarterbacks and ranks 124th in passing success rate allowed.
Grayson McCall has retired from football, but CJ Bailey has actually been the better quarterback for NC State this season. He's started eight games thus far averaging 8.2 yards per attempt with a better quarterback rating than McCall.
He played his best game of the season against Cal before the bye week, throwing for over 300 yards with four big-time throws, and a PFF Passing Grade of 89.2.
Stanford has without a doubt had trouble moving the ball this season, but it's playing at the 54th-fastest pace in the country. NC State's defense hasn't been elite by any means, ranking 88th in Success Rate Allowed.
I have 56.6 points projected for this game, so I like the value on over 46.5 points.
Pick: Over 46.5 (DraftKings)
UCLA vs. Nebraska Prediction
| UCLA Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -110 | 40.5 -110o / -110u | +200 |
| Nebraska Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -110 | 40.5 -110o / -110u | -250 |
This total is such a low bar to clear for these two offenses.
Nebraska quarterback Dylan Raiola has all the talent in the world and has performed much better at home than he has on the road. When playing in Lincoln, his PFF Passing grade is 10 points higher, and he's also averaging 7.6 yards per attempt compared to just six yards per attempt on the road.
He's been playing a lot of elite secondaries recently and now will get a bit of a relief because UCLA hasn't been able to stop anybody lately.
The Bruins are downright terrible against the pass, ranking 113th in EPA/Pass allowed and 130th in Passing Explosiveness.
The other thing about Raiola is he's a pretty decent quarterback when he has time to throw. His numbers are around FBS average when throwing from a clean pocket, but his PFF Passing Grade falls to 52.7, and his completion percentage drops over 20% when he's under pressure.
UCLA is going to provide very little pressure because it ranks 93rd nationally in Havoc and has the fourth-worst PFF Pass Rushing grade.
UCLA has tried to be a rush-heavy offense, but that has completely failed because it has some of the worst rushing metrics in the country. That means that it's been throwing the ball more with Ethan Garbers, but it's actually been working.
Garbers played his best game of the season against Rutgers before their bye, throwing for 383 yards and four touchdowns with a PFF Passing grade of 87.6.
Nebraska's secondary hasn't been elite by any means, ranking 51st in EPA/Pass allowed, so Garbers could have another big day if UCLA decides to air it out again.
Even though the pace is going to be slow here, both quarterbacks will be airing the ball out, which creates a more high-event game than expected. I have 47.9 points projected for this game, so I like the value on over 40.5 points.
Pick: Over 40.5 (BetMGM)
