With a 7-0 lead and catching five points in the Shula Bowl, it seemed like we were headed for a monster payday on our Week 3 parlay (+1249).
But FIU faded away into the Boca Raton night, surrendering 420 yards and 38 points to the once-grounded Owl offense.
This week, it’s back to the drawing board with the help of a few G5 friends.
It’ll start in Bloomington with the Hoosier-49er nonconference tilt before we load up on two road dogs — one taking the fight to La Tech in the Sportsman's Paradise and the other in the thin air of Fort Collins.
Let's dive into my college football parlay and Group of Five picks for Week 4.
College Football Group of 5 Parlay for Week 4
- Indiana -28.5 vs. Charlotte
- UTEP +9.5 vs. Colorado State
- Tulsa +3.5 vs. Louisiana Tech
Parlay Odds: +597 (bet365)
Charlotte vs. Indiana Pick
Indiana doesn’t have much of a track record as a big favorite. In fact, before bringing head coach Curt Cignetti on board, the Hoosiers had been three-touchdown or larger favorites against an FBS opponent just twice in the previous six seasons.
Cignetti, meanwhile, has been a bettor’s best friend since moving up from the FCS ranks. He's 17-10 ATS and has been known to drop the hammer on inferior competition.
In James Madison’s two seasons of FBS football, Cignetti beat eight teams by four or more touchdowns. He’s a run-it-up type of coach.
Need further proof? Two weeks ago against Western Illinois, IU was leading 42-3 at halftime. Did he empty his bench? Pare down his playbook in favor of vanilla looks? No. He ran it up, scoring another 35 points in the second half en route to a 77-3 blowout.
When Indiana bumped up in weight class last week, we got the same Cignetti. His team played with a killer instinct and rudely welcomed UCLA to the Big Ten, whooping the Bruins, 42-13.
Cignetti’s quarterback, Kurtis “Maple Missile” Rourke, looks beyond comfortable in Mike Shanahan’s system.
In the past two games, Rourke has gone 40-for-50 for 575 yards, six touchdowns and no picks. This is the best quarterback play Bloomington natives have seen since Michael Penix led them during the 2020 COVID-19 season.
On the other side of this matchup is an overmatched Charlotte team without its starting quarterback. Max Brown has been ruled out for this game, which is going to compound its issues on that side of the ball.
The 49ers rank bottom-10 nationally in rushing and pass protection and needed a 21-point fourth-quarter comeback to fend off FCS Gardner-Webb last week.
Charlotte’s lone calling card has been its ability to generate chunk plays. The 49ers average three plays of 30 yards or more from scrimmage per game. Can they be explosive against the Hoosiers? Bad news there. IU is one the best teams in the nation in limiting explosives.
I would play IU up to the edge of 31 at -30.5.
Pick: Indiana -28.5 (Play to -30.5)
UTEP vs. Colorado State Pick
This starts with a situational angle but gets better as you dig into the numbers and injury report.
Starting with the situational side of things, Colorado State is coming off of its Super Bowl. Not only did it expend a tremendous amount of emotional capital, but it also played really poorly against Colorado.
The Rams were humbled, scoring just three points in the first 3.5 quarters against a mediocre Colorado defense. They ran their mouths and then were run off their own field.
Then you take a look at this injury report, and Tory Horton’s name appears in bold, triple-underlined font. He’s the best player on this roster by a country mile and makes this whole offense work.
With Horton on the field, defenses have to roll coverage to him or double him on every play. That’s the kind of attention that 3,382 career receiving yards and 27 total touchdowns generate. Without his services, the Rams’ underwhelming receiving corps is going to be exposed.
In recent years, they had other options like Justus Ross-Simmons (transferred to Syracuse) and tight end Dallin Holker (NFL), but their replacements have struggled to separate from defenders downfield.
The issues in their receivers’ room have been felt acutely by sophomore quarterback Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi, who's in the midst of a real slump. His completion percentage has dipped below 60%, despite his aDOT and yards per attempt average coming way down.
Safer throws are supposed to be completed, but in the case of BFN, opponents have adjusted. They’re jumping routes and squeezing the young passer. His QBR on the season is 12.7, one of the lowest figures among starters in the entire country.
At 0-3, I’m not sure many people are sprinting to the window to place a bet on the new-look, uptempo Miners. Scotty Walden’s rebuild is in Year 0, but their defense hasn’t been nearly as bad as experts feared in August.
ESPN's Bill Connelly has them 115th in defensive SP+, but the Miners have a few calling cards, namely that they’re creating negative plays (60th in TFLs), and they’re halfway decent in the red zone, ranking 49th in scores allowed inside their own 20.
Against a lifeless Rams offense, there’s a chance they give Colorado State some issues and hold them below 31 points.
If the defense does its job, I have faith in the UTEP offense to finally turn a corner with Skyler Locklear leading the way. Locklear and this offense have flashed at times but struggled with consistency and avoiding negative plays.
The good news here is that Colorado State’s pass rush is non-existent (91st per PFF, 121st in sacks). With time to operate against Southern Utah, this offense generated 423 total yards and protected the football without turning it over. The Thunderbirds will be in the mix for an FCS Playoff berth this season, so that glimpse of productivity from the Miners wasn’t a mirage.
I would wait to grab +10 in this spot, and if necessary, pay up to -135 to buy the half-point.
Pick: UTEP +10 (Play to -135)
Tulsa vs. Louisiana Tech Pick
In the preseason, I predicted that Sonny Cumbie would be fired this fall. I’m not moving off of that position due to one good half of football against NC State.
In the Bulldogs’ opener, they went 15 rounds with Nicholls. They needed a fourth-quarter rally to beat their in-state FCS rival. Then, you had the scare they threw into an ACC opponent.
The NC State game, while impressive on paper, was a bit fluky. They were gifted a 71-yard catch-and-run touchdown and banged home a 57-yard field goal to take the lead into the locker room. Then, reality caught up to La Tech. It was outscored, 24-3, in the second half against the Wolfpack.
Those two games have solidified my opinion that this passing attack hasn’t improved much year over year.
Jack Turner and Blake Baker both struggle with accuracy. As a team, Louisiana Tech is averaging just 2.5 yards per carry. It's skating by on chunk plays and especially strong special teams play. This is when its luck runs out.
Unlike La Tech, I’ve been pleasantly surprised by the Tulsa offense in the early going.
Kamdyn Benjamin has been impressive as a big-play threat and has chemistry with quarterback Kirk Francis. Kevin Wilson is using Cardell Williams in his goal-to-go, packages which gives the Bulldogs another element to prepare for.
It’s true that Tulsa got decimated by Oklahoma State last week, but if I’ve learned anything in the past 20 years, it’s that Mike Gundy is impossible to nail down. One week, his Pokes almost lose to Arkansas, the next they look like a College Football Playoff threat.
What I do know for certain is that La Tech isn’t in Oklahoma State’s league on either side of the ball — nor can it rely on a meaningful home-field advantage. The Bulldogs are 20-22 ATS as a home favorite in the past 10 years.
I’ll close with one more element of this game that I believe is trending toward Tulsa. Yes, La Tech placekicker Buck Buchanan has looked great this year, but special teams is about more than just kicking.
Tulsa can absolutely turn this matchup in the return game.
Only Oregon, Central Michigan and Tulsa have both punt and kickoff return touchdowns this year. Benjamin and freshman running back Lloyd Avant can take it the house anytime they touch it, and I’m banking on them stealing momentum away from the home team at least once on Saturday.
I would play this at +3.5. If it dips below that, make a pivot to a Tulsa ML play.
Pick: Tulsa +3.5 (Play ML if Line Dips)
