We begin the Week 4 slate with five Saturday afternoon college football picks, featuring Arizona State vs. Texas Tech and more.
My primary goal of this piece is to simply share a few key angles, notable matchups and injury situations for each particular game that hopefully will make you a better bettor.
For full reference of all my spots for Week 4, here's the full piece.
- 2022-23: 99-70-1 (58.6%)
- 2024: 4-9 (30.8%)
- Overall: 103-79-1 (56.6%)
College Football Picks for Week 4: Saturday Afternoon Bets
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 12 p.m. | Louisiana +3.5 |
  | 3:30 p.m. | Buffalo +14 |
  | 3:30 p.m. | Navy +10 |
  | 3:30 p.m. | Texas Tech -3 |
  | 4:15 p.m. | Vanderbilt +21 |
Louisiana +3.5 vs. Tulane
12 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPNU
This is probably the best pure situational spot on the board.
While the Ragin' Cajuns will benefit from coming off of a bye week, Tulane will hit the highway for a second straight road game after playing a pair of Power 4 conference opponents in back-to-back weeks in Kansas State and Oklahoma.
Both of those contests were super physical and close throughout, so I wouldn't be shocked if Tulane came about a little flat and wore down late.
The Green Wave also have a pretty big home game on deck against South Florida to kick off conference play.
It's difficult to really gauge this 2024 Louisiana team due to a lack of quality data points after starting the season with games against Kennesaw State and Grambling. However, it did at least take care of business with relative ease in both victories.
More importantly, quarterback Ben Woolridge stayed healthy, which has been an issue in the past.
While I didn't learn much against two significantly inferior opponents, unlike many teams across FBS, Louisiana was a known commodity coming into 2024 with a top-15 returning production rank nationally.
It did lose four impact players in left tackle Nathan Thomas (seventh-round draft pick), wide receiver Peter LeBlanc (signed with Bears as UDFA), linebacker Kendre Gant (transferred to Houston) and quarterback Zeon Chriss (also transferred to Houston after taking over as the starter last season due to injuries).
However, the rest of the roster essentially returned intact.
I also really fancied the hiring of new defensive coordinator Jim Salgado, who should help improve an experienced secondary that had coverage issues last season.
Conversely, Tulane came into the season with extreme roster and staff turnover, which made the Green Wave trickier to rate.
New quarterback Darian Mensah has opened up some eyes through three games, and the team did exceed my expectations against Kansas State and even Oklahoma to an extent.
However, the offensive line and secondary appear to have taken a step back after mass attrition at both position groups. They also still lack the same edge-rushing prowess we saw from Devean Deal (transferred to TCU), Keith Cooper Jr. (transferred to Houston) and Darius Hodges (drafted by Panthers).
This nonconference matchup does have an interesting wrinkle worth noting. New Tulane head coach Jon Sumrall has plenty of familiarity with Louisiana (and vice versa) since he and his coordinators held the same positions at Sun Belt foe Troy in 2022 and 2023.
That may give a slight edge to Tulane since I rate Sumrall as the superior coach, but I can't pass up this spot or price in a game I project closer to a PK even after upgrading Tulane's power rating a few points through three weeks while keeping Louisiana relatively stable.
Tulane's Notable Nugget
Over the past 10 seasons, no team has had more ATS success in home games than Tulane at 38-20-1 (65.5%). However, the Green Wave have gone exactly .500 (26-26) against the number away from Yulman Stadium over that span.
Pick: Louisiana +3 or Better
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Buffalo +14 at Northern Illinois
3:30 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN
A little post-Notre Dame market inflation? I believe so.
Coming into the season, I wasn't very high on Buffalo, but new head coach Pete Lembo (who has won in the MAC before) looks like a massive upgrade over Maurice Linguist, who I had rated as one of the worst head coaches in FBS last season.
It's a much cleaner operation this season, and he will definitely clean up a special teams unit that has been a major area of weakness in recent seasons.
Quarterback C.J. Ogbonna has fared better as a passer than I could've ever imagined — although the offense is still extremely limited across the board. It's just not a very talent-rich group.
The defensive line remains a major question with a severe lack of size, which concerns me a bit against NIU's offensive line and rushing attack. However, the secondary has talent, and linebackers Shaun Dolac and Red Murdock clean everything up at the second level.
The Huskies are a real contender in the MAC, but how will they handle coming off their biggest win in program history?
They did at least have a bye week following that upset victory in South Bend, but maybe they're peaking ahead a bit to next week in what now looks like a much more winnable game against NC State, which would really ramp up the discussion around NIU's chances of grabbing the Group of Five's College Football Playoff berth.
I primarily just show value in this number in a spot where NIU could get caught feeling itself a bit too much.
Additionally, the Huskies are an extremely slow rush-heavy offense, which makes them much more intriguing as an underdog than a favorite laying two touchdowns.
Plus, it's not like the MAC has massive home-field advantages. Home favorites in conference play have cashed at just a 45% clip since 2005.
NIU's Notable Nugget
Against FBS competition, NIU head coach Thomas Hammock is just 4-16 ATS (20%) as a favorite, failing to cover by over a touchdown per game on average. That includes a 1-5 ATS mark as a favorite of more than a touchdown.
Pick: Buffalo +14 or Better
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Navy +10 vs. Memphis
3:30 p.m. ET ⋅ CBS Sports Network
This is a tough spot for Memphis after pulling off a huge upset win on the road at Florida State (although, should we even call beating the Noles an upset anymore?). That victory could prove paramount for its College Football Playoff chances.
Now, the Tigers must stay focused for a second straight road game against a Navy team that will benefit from coming off of a bye week.
I doubt Ryan Silverfield spent any time preparing for Navy's triple-option attack (with some new wrinkles) prior to the Florida State game.
Plus, the Midshipmen have had extra time to install and work on their modified option attack under new offensive coordinator Drew Cronic.
Catching double digits with a service academy is always worth a look — especially in a superb situational spot — since they will almost always play in games with limited possessions. That makes it a much more arduous task for favorites to build bigger margins.
Admittedly, I was hoping to get 14 or more here (service academies are 60% ATS historically when catching 14-plus), but this was a fairly sharp opener that got hit early in the week after a service release.
I've had this spot circled since the summer, so it made the cut, but I would need double digits to get involved and will look for a 14 or better live.
And it's not like I don't have concerns about this particular matchup.
The Memphis defense has graded out in the 90th percentile or better in both Stuff Rate and Line Yards — two key categories to look at when analyzing how a defense will fare against Navy's offense.
The Tigers have also been dominant on early downs, and forcing Navy into third-and-long situations is usually a death sentence for the Mids.
Additionally, Navy has only played Bucknell and Temple so far this season, which aren't the best data points in terms of evaluating how it'll fare against a high-powered offense.
Can the secondary actually contain Seth Henigan and an excellent set of wide receivers? Last year, the Midshipmen got beat handily by Notre Dame, South Florida and SMU — allowing an average of over 48 points per game in losses by 45, 39 and 14.
Most of their wins or close games came against quarterbacks who could not or did not pass (they even lost by 14 to EJ Warner and Temple) except for their one matchup with Memphis on the road in a four-point 28-24 loss.
The Navy secondary actually fared OK in that one, but that was the exception to the rule when it came to facing competent passing attacks in 2023. Navy actually outgained Memphis, 432-408, thanks to a rushing attack that averaged six yards a pop on 50 attempts.
Can it replicate that success and eat up the clock against an improved Memphis front? We'll find out in Annapolis on Saturday afternoon, but the situational spot couldn't be any better.
Navy's Notable Nugget
Navy is the most profitable underdog in college football since 2005 at 65-41-4 (61.3%).
Pick: Navy +10 or Better (smaller) · +14 or Better Live is Preferred
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Texas Tech -3 vs. Arizona State
3:30 p.m. ET ⋅ FS1
Arizona State is significantly improved this season, as evidenced by its 3-0 start.
After a disastrous injury situation in 2023, things were bound to improve with better health alone. Now it's clear that head coach Kenny Dillingham has this program trending in the right direction.
However, while the start has been impressive, let's take a closer look at who the Sun Devils have beaten to start the season:
- Mississippi State (just got blown out at home vs. Toledo)
- Wyoming (0-3 with a home loss to FCS Idaho and yet to cover a game)
- Texas State
Two of those victories came by one possession, and the first two look much less impressive when examining other results.
It also hasn't hurt that the Sun Devils have gone 5-of-6 on fourth down and own a +6 turnover margin with three defensive scores through just three games.
Michigan State transfer Sam Leavitt has provided a spark at quarterback after a disastrous season under center for the Sun Devils.
Leavitt remains limited as a passer (107th EPA per Dropback), which should serve as a welcome relief for a Texas Tech secondary that has really struggled against opposing pass attacks. Even Abilene Christian's Maverick McIvor threw for over 500 yards against the Red Raiders in Week 1.
While the aerial attack won't overwhelm opponents, Leavitt can extend plays and create with his legs, while Cam Skattebo runs as hard as any back in the country.
Leavitt's legs are a particular concern against a Tech defense that allowed Washington State quarterback John Mateer to run for nearly 200 yards in a Week 2 loss in Pullman. However, that experience should serve as a valuable tune-up for this one with the focus all week being on a more contained pass rush.
Texas Tech didn't get off to a promising start this season with a one-point win over Abilene Christian at home in Week 1 followed by a blowout loss at Washington State.
However, that 21-point loss to the Cougars was an extremely misleading final score and doesn't look as bad after Wazzu upset rival Washington last week. The Red Raiders actually finished with 75 more net yards but were done in by four turnovers (-3 margin) and a 1-for-5 performance on fourth down while Washington State went 2-of-3.
It's worth noting that Texas Tech games will usually have plenty of fourth-down variance under head coach Joey McGuire, so let's hope TTU's due for a few conversions after a slow start to the season.
Most importantly, Texas Tech has dealt with as many injuries as any team in the country to start the season.
Star running back Tahj Brooks didn't suit up in Pullman, and four more starters left with an injury over the course of that contest, including the entire left side of the offensive line.
While starting left guard Vinny Sciury was lost for the season, the Red Raiders should get left tackle Sterling Porcher back on Saturday.
The defense has also dealt with a plethora of health issues but should be closer to full strength this week (despite still being without Charles Esters III), assuming their top two defensive backs in safety C.J. Baskerville and cornerback Bralyn Lux do go.
Both are listed as questionable but did play last week when Tech had its best performance of the season by far in a 66-21 rout of North Texas.
Quarterback Behren Morton, who struggled with injuries throughout last season, finally looks 100% healthy with 974 passing yards and 10 touchdowns through three games. That's a massive development for this explosive Zach Kittley offense, which I think now has a better overall group of pass-catchers.
It could be a long day for an Arizona State secondary that ranks 97th in Defensive Passing Success Rate in 2024.
Give me the better quarterback at home laying only a field goal — the same price Texas State closed at last week at home vs. ASU.
For reference, coming into the season, I had Texas Tech power rated about a touchdown better than the Bobcats, who really should've beaten the Sun Devils if not for some costly turnovers and penalties.
Texas Tech's Notable Nugget
Over the past 10 years, Texas Tech is the most profitable home favorite in FBS with an overall ATS record of 22-11-1 (66.7%).
Pick: Texas Tech -3 or Better
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Vanderbilt +21 at Missouri
4:15 p.m. ET ⋅ SEC Network
This is a good buy-low spot on Vanderbilt after an outright loss at Georgia State as more than a touchdown favorite. Plus, Missouri might be a bit flat after a hard-fought win over a ranked opponent with a bye on deck.
Most importantly, anytime you can get Vanderbilt at a big price this season, the Commodores will warrant a look since they profile similar to a service academy.
They will try their hardest to slow this game down and limit the overall number of possessions.
Admittedly, I'm just a bit worried about the secondary holding up against Missouri's passing attack. The Tigers also had a tremendous defensive game plan to contain Thomas Castellanos' legs last week against Boston College, which they can carry right over to Saturday against quarterback Diego Pavia.
However, I still have questions about Missouri's defense, which lost a ton of talent from last year's squad.
Vanderbilt's Notable Nugget
Vanderbilt quarterback Diego Pavia is 7-1 ATS over the past two seasons as an underdog in games that he starts and finishes.
Pick: Vanderbilt +21 or Better
Note: I'm going to be greedy and hope to get better than three touchdowns pregame or live.
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