Week 9 is already here, and another beautiful Saturday slate gives us another full slate of NCAAF player props and picks.
Our staff came through with four wagers, including picks for Michigan State's Aidan Chiles and Indiana's Justice Ellison, Mississippi State's Michael Van Buren Jr. and more.
Here are our five favorite player prop picks for Saturday, Oct. 26.
NCAAF Player Props, Picks
In the table below, you'll find each of our college football staff's top player prop picks from Saturday's slate of Week 9 NCAAF games. Click on any pick or team logo to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Time (ET) | Player Prop |
|---|---|
| 12 p.m. | |
| 12:45 p.m. | |
| 7:30 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
Washington vs. Indiana Player Prop
Denzel Boston & Justice Ellison ATD Parlay (+228)
By Alex Hinton
I cashed a touchdown combo with Justice Ellison and Kalel Mullings a few weeks back.
This week, I’m going back to Ellison with a different partner.
Since then, Ellison has not stopped scoring. He has scored in each of his last six games, including twice against Nebraska last week.
Ellison has been integral to Indiana’s rise into the spotlight (and possible CFP contention) this season. He leads the team with 514 yards and eight touchdowns on seven yards per carry.
This week, his presence will be even more necessary for the Hoosiers with starting quarterback Kurtis Rourke sidelined.
This may have been his week, regardless. Washington has allowed 143.2 rushing yards per game and seven touchdowns compared to 123 passing yards per game and five touchdowns.
However, offensively, things are flipped for the Huskies.
They are averaging 294 passing yards per game. They've thrown 15 touchdown passes — 13 from starter Will Rogers — this season. A staggering nine of them have gone to receiver Denzel Boston, who has 40 receptions for 540 yards.
Boston has also scored in six of seven games this season. Six of his touchdowns have come inside the red zone. Should Washington reach the red zone, taking Boston away will likely be Indiana’s top priority.
However, he has also found the end zone against top defenses like Michigan and Iowa.
Combining the touchdown leaders for each team, we get +228 odds on FanDuel.
Pick: Justice Ellison & Denzel Boston ATD Parlay (+228 · Play to +200)
Arkansas vs. Mississippi State Player Prop
Michael Van Buren Over 231.5 Pass Yards
By Cody Goggin
Michael Van Buren has played in four games this season and has 792 passing yards since taking over at quarterback for Blake Shapen.
However, his passing volume has increased over the last two weeks, with Van Buren posting 242 passing yards against Texas A&M and 306 yards against Georgia on 41 and 37 attempts, respectively.
In Van Buren’s first two games, he had only 13 and 23 attempts, as he was still gaining experience.
Mississippi State has scored 31 and 24 points in these last two games, so I think we will see them continue to pass. Van Buren hasn’t been an efficient passer, but all four games were against teams in the top 40 in Pass Success Rate allowed this season.
This week, the Bulldogs will take on the Arkansas Razorbacks, who rank 96th in Pass Success Rate allowed and 73rd in EPA Per Pass allowed. Arkansas ranks 93rd in PFF’s Pass Rush Grade and 123rd in PFF’s Coverage grades this season.
It simply hasn't been a good defensive unit against the pass.
Part of the reason for Van Buren’s uptick in passing volume over the last couple of weeks is that they have been having to fight to stay in games.
His defense ranks 123rd in Success Rate allowed and 131st in Pass Success Rate allowed. Arkansas’ offense ranks 23rd in Success Rate this season and will likely be able to score on the Bulldogs, again causing Van Buren to throw the ball more.
Jeff Lebby has consistently shown us that he wants to throw the ball on offense since his time as an offensive coordinator.
They have found success doing this the last couple of weeks with Van Buren, and I think this will continue to become part of the game plan, especially against a bad Arkansas secondary.
Van Buren’s passing yardage prop is listed at only 231.5 yards this weekend, but I think he will be able to exceed this total.
Pick: Michael Van Buren Over 231.5 Pass Yards (Play to Over 250)
Michigan State vs. Michigan Player Prop
Aidan Chiles to Throw an Interception (-130)
This line is way too low.
Aidan Chiles is the definition of "chuck it deep and hope for the best." He has 10 interceptions on the season and has thrown a pick in five of Michigan State’s seven games.
It gets worse, though. He has committed 18 turnover-worthy plays, the most in college football. He’s also committed a turnover-worthy play in every game this season.
What tends to happen is that Michigan State is unable to run the ball and he’s forced to try and beat defenses over the top, but he ends up throwing it up for grabs more often than not.
Michigan State will likely struggle to run the ball in this game because Michigan is in the top 45 in Defensive Line Yards and EPA per Rush allowed.
The Wolverines only have six interceptions on the season, but they have the best PFF Pass-Rushing grade in the nation. This means Chiles is going to constantly be under pressure, so he’s more likely to throw an interception. Seven of his 10 interceptions this season have come in a crowded pocket.
Two weeks ago, against Oregon, this line was -200. I get that Michigan has a worse secondary, but there shouldn’t be this big of a discount for the nation's leader in turnover-worthy plays.
