College Football Picks, Predictions: Collin Wilson’s Week 9 Bets for Saturday’s NCAAF Slate

College Football Pick: Collin Wilson's Week 9 Bets

Game	Time (ET)	Pick
	12 p.m.	Notre Dame -13 · First-Half Over 26.5
	3:30 p.m.	Under 55 (-125)
	7:30 p.m.	LSU +2.5
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game.

Week 9 of the college football season is upon us, and it has some fun matchups in store.

While there aren't any top-5 matchups like Georgia vs. Texas or Ohio State vs. Oregon on the schedule, there are still many notable games taking place across the country.

The biggest is a top-15 clash between the No. 8 LSU Tigers and No. 14 Texas A&M Aggies with major SEC Championship and College Football Playoff implications.

But before we get there, I'm going to break down 2 other Top 25 matchups.

First, the No. 13 Notre Dame Fighting Irish will take on the No. 24 Navy Midshipmen in East Rutherford, New Jersey, in a game that unexpectedly also has CFP ties.

Then, the No. 20 Illinois Fighting Illini will travel 2 time zones over to the West Coast to face the No. 1 Oregon Ducks in a ranked Big Ten battle.

It will be yet another fun week of college football, so let's dive into the college football predictions and picks in my Week 9 Action Network betting card below.

Saturday, Oct. 24

12 p.m. ET

ABC

Notre Dame -13 · First-Half Over 26.5

In 96 previous meetings between the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (6-1) and the Navy Midshipmen (6-0, 4-0 AAC), the stakes have never been higher. Now, there will be College Football Playoff implications on the line on Saturday at 12 p.m. ET on ABC.

The neutral site of MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey is sure to be filled by both fan bases, as Notre Dame entered the market as a 13-point favorite.

The total has been knocked down at several shops, opening just above the key of 55 before settling at 52.5.

Notre Dame's lone loss against Northern Illinois would be forgiven with a sweep of the remaining schedule, while Navy has its hands in several pots, aiming for an American Athletic Conference Championship appearance before the annual showdown with Army for the Commander-in-Chief's Trophy.

Where does the betting value lie? Let's dive into my Notre Dame vs. Navy predictions and college football picks for Saturday, Oct. 26.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Head coach Marcus Freeman was clear in his weekly press conference: Notre Dame has been preparing for months to take on this Navy offense.

There are plenty of wrinkles in the Midshipmen offense that have been added this season, but the most important aspect of this game is the discipline of Irish defenders.

No matter if the triple option comes from under center or shotgun, the defense must plug the A-gap and set outside contain.

Howard Cross III and Rylie Mills will serve as the defensive interior to stop the fullback dive. Of all defensive interiors to play at least 100 run defense snaps, Cross and Mills rank just outside the top 140 of individual defenders.

Notre Dame supports a Stuff Rate outside the top 80, suggesting short-yardage situations may favor Navy.

The next item to handicap is outside contain when it comes to defending the quarterback run outside the tackle when the fullback dive is not used.

The Irish have used four different edge players in defensive rush snaps. Of defensive ends who have logged at least 50 snaps against the rush, Joshua Burnham is the only player to rank in the individual top 200, per PFF.

The numbers do not suggest Notre Dame will consistently defend the quarterback keeper, as three of the defenders named have higher-than-average missed tackle rates.

The final handicap of the Notre Dame defense comes against the play-action pass.

The Irish have seen 62 play-action attempts this season, giving up a mid-FBS Success Rate of 50% while generating a low number of negative plays.

Notre Dame has been elite in terms of not giving up the big pass play so far this season, but numbers against play action suggest Navy could find success.

The Irish are allowing a big-play rate of 23% against play action, which is notable against a Navy offense that uses one of the highest rates of play-action nationally.

Navy Midshipmen

The Navy offense has blitzed every opponent on the schedule after minor tweaks to the offensive scheme. The triple-option offense has taken on a few wrinkles under coordinator Drew Cronic.

While the fullback dive, quarterback keeper and running back pitch are still a staple of the offense, pre-snap formations have a new look for Navy.

The Wing-T, spread option, RPO and plenty of play-action have created a boom in the stats for quarterback Blake Horvath.

Navy's run concept usage has changes, with inside zone, power and fullback run getting as much usage as the triple option.

The numbers suggest this is one of the most efficient and explosive offenses in the nation, but a strength of schedule at 132nd means Notre Dame will be Navy's toughest game of the season.

The Midshipmen have struggled on defense, specifically ranking outside the top 100 in rushing analytics such as Success Rate and Line Yards. Opposing rushing attacks have destroyed Navy with man and inside zone read concepts.

Coordinator P.J. Volker has struggled to find resistance in early downs versus passing downs, as Navy's Success Rate moves from 102nd to sixth.

Notre Dame vs. Navy Prediction

The bread and butter of the Notre Dame offense has been the usage of inside zone read concepts. The Irish run the ball at a 56% rate with quarterback Riley Leonard and workhorse running back Jeremiyah Love.

Backup running back Jadarian Price has seen increased attempts over the past two games as well, totaling 20 carries against Georgia Tech and Stanford.

The trio have been electric after first contact, with Love at 4.2 yards to Price's 5.2 yards.

There's no run concept that has gashed the Midshipmen defense worse than inside zone, as Navy averages a 38% Success Rate and a poor bottom-20 rank in Defensive Stuff Rate.

The explosives for Notre Dame are all expected to come on the ground against a Navy defense that raks 103rd in Opponent Rush EPA and 123rd in Defensive Line Yards.

The biggest question comes with a Notre Dame defense and the ability to stay disciplined in its assignments. Navy's new-look offense includes more than triple option, with power and fullback dive serving as the most successful run concepts for the Midshipmen.

The Irish have struggled against a number of run plays in Navy's arsenal, particularly inside zone and power.

There are advantages for both offenses early in this game, as offensive splits by half and quarter suggest an early blitz of scoring opportunities.

Notre Dame has seen a decrease in opponent scoring in the second half of every game this season, just as Navy's offense has seen a decrease in points in the second half of games.

Navy is the second-highest point scorer in the first half of all teams in FBS. Look for the Midshipmen to empty the bag early against the Irish defense, while the Notre Dame rush attack picks up whatever it wants.

Pick: Notre Dame -13 or Better · First-Half Over 26.5 or Better

Saturday, Oct. 24

3:30 p.m. ET

CBS

Under 55 (-125)

The march to the College Football Playoff continues for the Illinois Fighting Illini (6-1, 3-1 Big Ten) and Oregon Ducks (7-0, 4-0), who find themselves on a Week 9 collision course.

Oregon logged a win in one of the biggest marquee games of the season, knocking out Ohio State, 32-31, in Week 7. That energy from Autzen Stadium will be needed once again when the Fighting Illini make their lone West Coast trip this weekend.

Head coach Bret Bielema is headed for a breakout season with Illinois, already eclipsing a preseason win total of 5.5. The lone loss for the Fighting Illini came in a 21-7 defeat against Penn State, but a 2-touchdown victory over Michigan in Week 8 has Illinois in the thick of the Big Ten race.

An opener of 23.5 was quickly knocked down to Oregon -21.5, where there has been no movement throughout the betting week.

The same goes for a total of 54.5, a number that has been stable on the odds board sitting just below the biggest key number in college football totals of 55.

Let's take a look at my Illinois vs. Oregon predictions and college football picks for Saturday, Oct. 26.

Illinois Fighting Illini

Despite a 6-1 record, there's reason to believe Illinois may have already overachieved from a second-order win total perspective.

Penn State soundly beat the Fighting Illini on Sept. 28, but the results in multiple other wins are under a microscope.

Illinois defeated Kansas in nonconference action but generated a 43% post-game win expectancy thanks to four turnovers from the Jayhawks. Purdue raced back from a 24-3 Illinois halftime lead to nearly win the game in overtime. Finally, Bielema's team struggled to put Michigan away at home in Week 8 because of renewed focus and efficiency in the Wolverines' passing game.

One of the biggest problems plaguing the Illinois offense is a rank of 115th in Havoc Allowed. The offensive line has given up 53 tackles for loss, while quarterback Luke Altmyer has seen 91 pressures in just 223 dropbacks this season.

The fourth-year signal-caller from Ole Miss has posted a career-high in mistakes with a crowded pocket, nearly doubling the number of turnover-worthy plays than big-time throws with pressure.

However, when Altmyer is not under duress, there's a good chance of pass explosives to targets Zakhari Franklin and Pat Bryant.

The 2-4-5 defense has had severe struggles against the opponent rush. Illinois ranks as a bottom-15 team in all of FBS concerning opponent rush efficiency.

The numbers fall even further in terms of Line Yards, a measurement of how well offensive lines have created running lanes for running backs. Despite horrific numbers in defensive rush analytics like Stuff Rate, Illinois has been fantastic at eliminating opponent explosive plays.

Defensive coordinator Aaron Henry has been fantastic when opponents look to score, giving up an average of 2.9 points in 38 opponent trips inside the extended red zone.

Oregon Ducks

Oregon experienced no hangover in its first road trip that crossed two time zones. While other former Pac-12 teams have struggled in the original Big Ten, the Ducks defense blanked Purdue's offense.

Even more impressive is the schedule, as Oregon traveled to West Lafayette with just six days to prepare after beating Ohio State.

The rushing attack has helped stabilize the team in any environment, dominating with multiple run concepts including zone read, counter and straight-up power formations.

Jordan James logged two touchdowns against the Boilermakers, averaging 3.7 yards after first contact this season.

Head coach Dan Lanning has produced one of the best Havoc defenses in the nation, thanks to a top-20 pass rush and a secondary that swats anything in the air.

Defensive interior Derrick Harmon ranks 15th in PFF's individual pass-rush productivity ranks, a calculation of sacks, hits and hurries.

The coverage unit grades out as the second-best in FBS, led by cornerbacks Jabbar Muhammad and Brandon Johnson with 11 combined forced incompletions.

If there's an area to attack Oregon, it's on the ground. A Success Rate outside the top 50 correlates to mid-FBS ranks against the run concepts of zone read and man blocking.

Illinois vs. Oregon Prediction

The main driver of Illinois points comes from big plays in the passing game, as the Illini rank top-20 in passing downs EPA.

However, producing explosives could be fruitless against an Oregon defense that's 21st in Opponent Passing EPA. Outside of the outstanding play at cornerback, safeties Kobe Savage and Tysheem Johnson are both top-60 of all coverage players at their position.

The challenge for Oregon in a home game with a spread of three touchdowns is the ability to create explosives. The Ducks have produced just two rushing attempts of 30 yards or more all season.

Conversely, Illinois has allowed only two 30-yard runs on the season.

Quarterback Dillon Gabriel will be expected to lead his offense into scoring position, but a pesky Illinois defense has been successful in creating contested catches this season. The plan for Gabriel could be short passing, as the season-long average depth of target sits at 6.7 yards.

Our Action Network projections are closely aligned with the market, putting Oregon at -20 with a total of 54. Because each defense has the ability to limit quality drives and explosives, scoring opportunities will be at a premium.

Neither offense has played clean in the extended red zone with a rank outside the top 45 in Finishing Drives.

The under is the play, but the market sits a half-point shy on the biggest key number in college football totals. Buying a half point in the totals market is never suggested unless 55 is the number.

Look to shop for the key of 55 no higher than -125.

Pick: Under 55 (-125) or Better

Saturday, Oct. 24

7:30 p.m. ET

ABC

LSU +2.5

The SEC is set to enter cannibalization mode with a number of national title contenders ready to face off.

There are six teams in the conference standings sitting at 6-1, and two of them will face off when the LSU Tigers (6-1, 3-0 SEC) hit the road for a second consecutive week to play the Texas A&M Aggies (6-1, 4-0). The game will kick off at 7:30 p.m. ET on ABC.

The opening line made Texas A&M the favorite by 3 points, a number that was hit early by LSU wagers. The current number of Texas A&M -2.5 has seen resistance in favor of the Aggies, while the total hasn't moved since opening at 53.5.

Week 9 will serve as an SEC knockout game for the College Football Playoff, sending LSU or Texas A&M to two losses and in need of a sweep in November.

So, here are my LSU vs. Texas A&M predictions and college football picks for Saturday, Oct. 26.

LSU Tigers

The LSU defense continues to provide the Havoc needed to gain an extra edge on opponents. New defensive coordinator Blake Baker has massively improved the Tigers' defense in a number of areas, specifically against the rush.

The nickel defense has been exceptional against counter and power run concepts, helping the Tigers achieve a top-30 mark in Success Rate against the rush.

Tackling fundamentals continue to be a staple, ranking top-25 ranking, as linebackers Whit Weeks and Greg Penn III have led the team in the absence of Harold Perkins Jr.

Baker's complex scheme flashed an "I Formation" defensively against Arkansas, disguising a quarterback spy.

LSU is looking to get creative against opponents in known passing downs, as it's fallen outside the top 100 in Success Rate against the pass. A mix of man, Cover 1 and Cover 3 have produced limited results with a coverage grade of 88th, per PFF.

The great news for LSU is its ability to produce Havoc, as it generates the 13th-best pass rush in the nation.

Opponents are also averaging less than three points across 41 possessions when crossing the LSU 40-yard line, giving Baker's defense a rank of 13th in Finishing Drives.

Offensively, the rise of Caden Durham at running back continues to pay dividends. The freshman tallied three rushing touchdowns against Arkansas while raising his average to 3.2 yards after first contact.

Meanwhile, quarterback Garrett Nussmeier has been one of the most efficient quarterbacks nationally in Passing Downs Success Rate. The senior has more than doubled his big-time-throw-to-turnover-worthy-play rate, generating 18 passing touchdowns and more than 2,200 yards through seven games.

However, explosive plays can be sparse, with only a single run and pass going for more than 20 yards against Arkansas.

Slot Aaron Anderson and wideout Kyren Lacy average over two yards per route run from an explosiveness standpoint, but they've combined for seven drops on the season.

Texas A&M Aggies

Quarterback Conner Weigman produced the worst results of his career against Mississippi State, generating four turnover-worthy throws on 25 passing attempts.

Timing and inaccuracy issues were cited as the reasons for the mistakes in Starkville, as Weigman continues to recover from a shoulder injury from earlier in the season.

The great news for the Texas A&M offense is it has a trench that's moving the pile against every opponent. In fact, the Aggies rank 11th in Line Yards and 10th in Stuff Rate.

Running back Le'Veon Moss has enjoyed the boost in Line Yards provided by the offensive line, as they've opened up some of the largest rushing holes in the SEC.

Similar to LSU, this is one of the most chaotic defenses in college football. The nickel package rotates between three- and four-man fronts depending on down and distance, and the Aggies are 10th-best in Havoc.

Missed tackles have been a constant for the Aggies this season and are a key indicator in close games. The Aggies missed 27 tackles in close contests against Arkansas and Mississippi State while limiting the number to just 13 in bigger margins of victory against Florida and Missouri.

LSU's ability to create missed tackles will be paramount to getting chunk yardage at the second level against the Texas A&M defense.

LSU vs. Texas A&M Prediction

There aren't many soft spots in the Texas A&M defense, but the middle of the unit is the place to attack for opposing offenses.

The Aggies' defensive EPA is top-35 — along with one of the best pass rushes in the nation — but the unit lacks a strong coverage grade thanks to passes over the middle.

Nussmeier has one of the highest passing grades nationally on throws between 10 and 19 yards, per PFF.

Additionally, nearly half of Anderson's 46 targets have come in the last three games, producing an average depth of target of 17 yards per catch over the past two outings. Despite a drop in all of the past three games, Anderson's receiving yards prop is worth an investment.

The biggest question circles around Weigman against an LSU pass defense that's shown improvement. PFF graded the South Alabama and UCLA games as disasters from a coverage standpoint, while a Week 7 win over Ole Miss was by far the best game the LSU defense has played against the pass.

The hot pass coverage then continued against Arkansas.

Weigman may find pockets of success, but the Tigers have been ruthless when it comes to opponent scoring attempts.

The Action Network projections make Texas A&M a favorite by a point, prompting opening wagers on LSU over a field goal. While the point spread has less value on LSU under the key number of 3, the Tigers still have advantages offensively with Nussmeier leading the team.

A rising defense, led by Weeks, should be the difference in a rowdy Kyle Field upset.

Pick: LSU +2.5 or Better

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