Week 10 College Football Best Bets, Picks for Saturday Night
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7 p.m. | |
  | 7:30 p.m. | |
  | 7:30 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
No. 10 Texas A&M is hitting the road to face South Carolina as part of an intriguing evening slate in college football — but that's far from the only intriguing game on the slate.
Including that Aggies vs. Gamecocks matchup, we have college football Week 10 best bets and picks for the evening games.
 |  |  |
Arizona State vs. Oklahoma State Best Bet
By Matt Wispe
This line opened with Oklahoma State as a short favorite, but money has quickly moved this line to the Arizona State side and across a key number.
Mike Gundy’s team has struggled mightily on defense this season. The Cowboys have allowed 29.9 points per game, which ranks 102nd nationally, and 6.9 yards per play, which ranks 131st.
They rank inside the bottom 50 in Success Rate allowed, but most notably, they allow a 17.5% explosive play rate, which ranks as the worst in the FBS.
What has elevated this rate is their propensity to allow long running plays. They allow the second-most 10+ yard runs and the most 20+ yard runs. Their line allows an average of 3.47 Line Yards per rush and only forces a 13.2% Stuff Rate.
Arizona State runs the ball 60.7% of the time and ranks inside the top five nationally with a 52.9% Rushing Success Rate. The Sun Devils' line generates 3.51 Line Yards per attempt and allows just a 13.9% Stuff Rate, which ranks inside the top 40.
Cameron Skattebo averages nearly 6.0 yards per carry and should be at the center of the Arizona State offensive game plan.
Arizona State’s defense, while not elite, allows 23.1 points per game and 4.9 yards per play. It allows just a 9.4% explosive play rate.
My numbers have Arizona State as a 7.5-point favorite, so I'll be moving on this number until it passes 4.5.
Pick: Arizona State -3.5 (Play to -4.5)
Texas A&M vs. South Carolina Best Bet
By Cody Goggin
Texas A&M is a three-point favorite in Columbia, South Carolina, this weekend. Williams-Brice Stadium is a tough place to play, but I think that Texas A&M is the better team in this matchup and can pull out a victory.
South Carolina’s defense — specifically its pass defense — has carried it to a 4-3 record. It's 45th in Success Rate allowed and eighth in EPA Per Play allowed. The Gamecocks are also sixth in Pass Success Rate allowed and fourth in EPA Per Pass allowed.
One of the main reasons for this is their insane pass rush, which is among the best in the nation.
However, Texas A&M wants to attack on the ground, as it's 10th in the nation in run plays per game and 123rd in pass plays per game. South Carolina’s defense ranks only 111th in Rush Success Rate allowed this season and 66th in EPA Per Rush.
Meanwhile, Texas A&M is 27th in EPA Per Rush and 51st in Rush Success Rate.
On the other side, South Carolina is also a rush-heavy offense, ranking 19th in run plays per game. Overall, this South Carolina offense hasn’t been effective, as it ranks 103rd in Success Rate and 110th in EPA Per Play, including 87th in Rush Success Rate and 103rd in EPA Per Run.
Texas A&M’s defense is 21st in Success Rate allowed and 31st in EPA Per Play allowed this season. It's best against the run, ranking 14th in Rush Success Rate allowed and 13th in EPA Per Rush allowed.
I think that the mismatches in this game all give Texas A&M the upper hand, as South Carolina’s tendencies play to the strengths of the Aggies in this matchup.
I like taking A&M to defeat the Gamecocks by more than a field goal, but I don’t want to go far past the current number, as this will likely be a lower-scoring game.
Pick: Texas A&M -3
Wisconsin vs. Iowa Best Bet
By Joshua Nunn
I love Iowa in this spot at home against Wisconsin. The Badgers have feasted on weaker Big Ten teams (blowout wins against Purdue, Rutgers and Northwestern) before coming back to reality last week against Penn State.
The Wisconsin offense has struggled to produce during long stretches this season, as it has issues registering explosive plays. The Badgers rank 132nd nationally in Offensive Explosiveness and 123rd in Rush Play Explosiveness.
Iowa is allowing just 3.5 yards per carry and 104 rushing yards per game on the season. The Hawkeyes are the No. 1-ranked team in the country in Defensive Rush Play Explosiveness surrendered.
The quarterback play of Braedyn Locke is going to be put to the test here at Kinnick Stadium.
Locke is completing just 57% of his passes with a 7:6 touchdown to interception ratio, but as we saw when Wisconsin played Penn State, the downfield passing game isn't going to have success.
Iowa locks down in the secondary, ranking 22nd nationally in Defensive EPA Per Pass and 16th in Defensive Passing Down Success Rate allowed, so it could be a long night for the Wisconsin offense here.
Offensively, Iowa has turned to Brendan Sullivan to replace Cade McNamara at quarterback, and his play last week was solid. He came in and led two scoring drives in the second half, giving him confidence to step in this week.
Kaleb Johnson is having a great season and should find holes to run through in this game.
Wisconsin is just 104th nationally in Defensive EPA Per Rush and 107th in Defensive Rush Play Success Rate, so when Iowa has possession, I would expect it to sustain drives on the ground and convert on third down at a high rate.
Iowa has historically struggled to punch it in when in the red zone, often times settling for field goals. This has been the case somewhat this season, but defensively, Wisconsin is just 102nd in Defensive Finishing Drives.
The Wisconsin defensive front seven has created as little Havoc as I've seen from this group in years, so I wouldn't expect negative runs or sacks to occur in the red zone.
This should lead to Iowa punching in scores down near the goal line, rather than lining up for field goals.
Pick: Iowa -3
