It's been a long day of college football. Are you ready to bet on more college football?
NCAAF Week 8's night slate is filled with elite matchups, headlined by No. 5 Georgia playing No. 1 Texas in Austin.
However, our staff has also come through with NCAAF Week 8 best bets and picks for LSU vs Arkansas and Iowa vs Michigan State.
Read about our staff's three favorite plays for Saturday's evening slate below.
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NCAAF Week 8 Best Bets & Picks for Evening Games
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7 p.m. | |
  | 7:30 p.m. | |
  | 7:30 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
LSU vs. Arkansas Best Bet
By Greg Waddell
Arkansas and LSU are trending in the right direction, as both teams are coming off marquee victories.
Arkansas knocked off Tennessee the last time we saw it, and LSU snuck past Ole Miss.
Arkansas is coming off an extra week to prepare for this one, while LSU is in a tough spot after a brutal overtime matchup.
LSU received some lucky swings in the Ole Miss win, with critical penalties, injuries, and a few fourth-down conversions all contributing positively to the Tigers' success.
Thinking back to earlier in the season, luck also played a significant role in LSU’s win over South Carolina, with the Gamecocks making a quarterback swap mid-game due to LaNorris Sellers’ injury.
The bye week should allow the Razorbacks to get fully healthy, meaning quarterback Taylen Green should be back. Green wasn’t listed on the Razorbacks’ injury report, which is a great sign.
LSU’s pass defense has been its weakness this season, as the Tigers rank just 101st nationally in Pass Success Rate allowed.
This is a great situational spot to buy into Arkansas, and if Green can make a few big plays through the air against the porous LSU secondary, the Razorbacks at plus money on the ML is a steal.
Pick: Arkansas ML (Play to ML)
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Georgia vs. Texas Best Bet
Yeah, Texas is elite. The Longhorns are probably the nation’s best team.
But they haven't played anybody yet.
They crushed lower-end Group of 5 teams like Colorado State, UTSA and Louisiana-Monroe. They also have ranked wins over Michigan and Oklahoma, two overrated teams that I power rate far lower than the market.
Georgia doesn’t look as dominant as in years past, but it’s put together some solid performances – at least in hindsight.
The blowout win over Clemson looks much better now that the Tigers have dropped 40 four times during their five-game win streak. The one-point road win over Kentucky looks much better after the Wildcats upset Ole Miss.
Sure, the loss to Alabama hasn’t aged well. But lest we forget, the Bulldogs out-scored the Tide 34-13 over the game’s final 40 minutes.
The Bulldogs are still filled with two-way talent. They’ve flashed moments of championship-caliber ball in between inconsistent performances. Carson Beck is still capable of slinging it – he ranks eighth nationally among FBS quarterbacks in sack-adjusted yards and 15th in Pass Success Rate. The team still ranks 15th nationally in EPA per offensive drive.
I also wonder if Texas’ inability to run the ball will eventually come back to bite the ‘Horns – they grade out closer to the nation average in EPA per Rush and Rush Success Rate. The Bulldogs rank seventh nationally in Passing Downs Success Rate allowed and second in Passing Downs PPA allowed, so Georgia has a decent shot at stopping Texas if it can force Quinn Ewers into obvious passing situations.
Ultimately, Kirby Smart is a master motivator, and the Longhorns haven’t faced a team this talented yet.
I’m betting this game comes down to a late field goal.
Pick: Georgia +5 (Play to +4)
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Iowa vs. Michigan State Best Bet
Michigan State was run through the wringer, playing Ohio State and Oregon in consecutive weeks at the end of September.
Luckily, the Spartans had their much-earned Bye last week, providing 15 days for first-year head coach Jonathan Smith to build chemistry with his new roster while scheming for this home matchup with Iowa – a considerable step down in competition from the past few top-five matchups.
Smith is an excellent game planner, and extra time is valuable to someone like him. Smith-led teams are 10-2 ATS with eight or more days between games.
While Iowa’s offense is improving, Cade McNamara still can’t throw the ball downfield, ranking 113th nationally in EPA per Dropback and 112th in Pass Explosiveness. That’s tough, considering Sparty’s defensive backfield is uber-vulnerable.
Instead, Iowa is still over-reliant on superstar running back Kaleb Johson in the ground-and-pound game. That’s tough, considering Smith has already reformed Michigan State’s front seven, as the Spartans rank among the top 30 FBS teams in Rush Success Rate allowed, Power Success Rate allowed and Stuff Rate.
I don’t know how Aidan Chiles moves the ball against Iowa’s always-elite defense. But Hawkeye games are nothing if not low-scoring, and I’ll happily grab over five points with the home pup in a points-at-a-premium battle.
Pick: Michigan State +5.5 (Play to +5.5)
