College Football Week 9 Best Bets for Saturday Night
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7 p.m. | |
  | 7:30 p.m. | |
  | 8 p.m. | |
  | 10:30 p.m. | |
  | 11:59 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
It's been a fun day of college football, but it's not over yet — far from it.
Saturday night's slate of NCAAF really picks up and features a number of quality games, including No. 8 LSU vs. No. 14 Texas A&M. While our staff certainly has picks for that game, our Saturday night best bets target five other games.
Among those are three in-state conference rivalries in Miami vs. Florida State, Michigan vs. Michigan State and Kansas vs. Kansas State.
So, no matter what you're looking to bet, our staff has you covered.
Keep reading for our top five college football Week 9 picks and best bets for Saturday night's college football games — and be sure to check out our favorite picks for the noon and afternoon kickoff windows.
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Florida State vs. Miami Best Bet
You know who knows a thing or two about not kneeling at the end of games? Mario Cristobal.
And in what’s likely the last regular-season national-spotlight game for Miami, Cristobal is going to do everything in his power to earn as many style points as he can to both bolster the Hurricanes’ playoff resume, as well as strengthen the case for Cam Ward’s Heisman bid.
This matchup features two offenses on completely different ends of the spectrum. Miami is top-10 in both Rush and Pass Success, while Florida State is 111th and 129th in those categories, respectively.
Ward has been on an absolute tear, leading the nation in passing yards per game (362.6) and passing touchdowns (24). The Seminoles’ defense ranks just 116th in Pass Success Allowed and is 94th in PFF Coverage.
There’s zero chance Florida State can keep pace with Miami’s scoring. The Hurricanes are averaging over 48 points per game, while the Seminoles have yet to cross 16 points in a single game this season.
It’s quitting time in Tallahassee, and Miami has every reason to look as impressive as it can. Florida State beat Miami 45-3 in Cristobal’s first season as the Hurricanes’ head coach, so he’ll be more than happy to return the favor and top the Seminoles by more than 21 points.
Pick: Miami -20.5 (Play to -21)
Michigan State vs. Michigan Best Bet
By Greg Waddell
Any way you cut this up, it’s my top play on the board this week.
I’ve written about it in our game previews and in my round robin parlay for Week 9.
For the sake of the safest “best bet” possible, I’ll take the points this time and grab Michigan State on the spread.
This is the first rendition of Jonathan Smith vs. Sherrone Moore, and the Ann Arbor faithful are getting restless.
If this game goes south, you could see the Wolverines’ home crowd turn into a disadvantage as pressure mounts.
The Michigan State run defense looked spectacular last week in its win over Iowa and superstar RB Kaleb Johnson. Outside of one breakaway touchdown run late, Johnson was held to just 23 yards rushing on 13 carries.
That’s a great sign for the Spartans, who will be able to stack the box against a Michigan team that straight up can’t pass the football.
The Wolverines have already passed the torch from Davis Warren to Alex Orji to Jack Tuttle, although using the word “pass” in a sentence with any of those three names is a stretch.
Offensively, this game will come down to Michigan State QB Aidan Chiles’ ability to avoid turnovers.
Chiles is coming off the best performance of his young career, in which he threw for 256 yards while completing 22-of-30 passes against the Hawkeyes. He threw one touchdown to one interception.
If Chiles gives the Spartans that exact line again, it’ll be more than enough to get a road cover against a Michigan team that can only run the football into the teeth of a strong MSU run defense.
Pick: Michigan State +5 (Play to MSU ML +140)
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Kansas vs. Kansas State Best Bet
Kansas State has won 15 consecutive games in the Sunflower Showdown, and you’ve gotta think Lance Leipold and company are sick and tired of hearing that fact.
The Jayhawks had a great chance of ending the streak last year in Lawrence, even without their top two quarterbacks, before squandering a fourth quarter lead.
Kansas is 2-5 on the season but is quite literally three or four plays away from being 5-2 or 6-1. The Jayhawks just haven’t been able to catch a break in a close game, but this team is far better than its record suggests.
What would be the best way to salvage some of those heartbreaking losses? Beating your crosstown rival to end a decade-plus losing streak against them.
QB Jalon Daniels has been sharp as of late and can have plenty of success against a mediocre Wildcat secondary.
Kansas State will have some success on the ground in this one, but I like the Jayhawks to be able to keep pace throughout in what should be a back-and-forth affair.
Ultimately, I see a ton of value on KU as sizable underdog here, and I would also endorse a small play on the moneyline, as I give Kansas a real shot to pull off the upset. Rock Chalk.
Pick: Kansas +9.5 (Play to +8.5)
Washington State vs. San Diego State Best Bet
I think because it’s floating in no man’s land, people don’t realize how good this Washington State team has been playing.
The Cougars have beaten Texas Tech, Washington, San Jose State, Fresno State and just crushed Hawaii last week.
Sophomore quarterback John Mateer took over for Cam Ward and has looked terrific as a dual-threat weapon. He has 16 passing touchdowns and eight rushing touchdowns on the year, and he’s averaging 270 yards passing and 75 yards rushing per game.
The Cougars are top-40 in offensive Success Rate. They’re averaging 6.6 yards per play, good for 24th in the country.
This offense is very good, very fun to watch and should light up this San Diego State defense.
The Aztecs have faced Oregon State, Cal, Central Michigan, Hawaii and Wyoming. Which team has the best offense of that bunch? They haven’t faced an offense even close to what the Cougars can do.
Washington State isn’t anything special on defense, but San Diego State ranks 128th in offensive Success Rate.
The Aztecs haven’t scored more than 27 points against an FBS school all season. They’re one-dimensional with running back Marquez Cooper, and Washington State has been much better against the run than the pass.
It’s always dangerous to play the transitive property game in college football but it can be helpful to understand power ratings and how teams should be viewed by the market.
San Diego State was a 1.5-point favorite at home over Hawaii a few weeks ago, meaning it’s power rated about the same.
Well, Washington State was an 18.5-point favorite against Hawaii last week and won by 32. Now it’s only a 14-point favorite against San Diego State? That’s too low.
Pick: Washington State -14 (Play to -17)
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Nevada vs. Hawaii Best Bet
By Joshua Nunn
Nevada has competed well this season in Mountain West play, and it’s much better than expected.
The Nevada defense has outperformed expectations thanks in part to a strong pass defense. Nevada is 53rd nationally in Pass Explosiveness allowed, and Hawaii is one of the least explosive pass offenses in FBS, checking in at 132nd nationally.
Hawaii has struggled with negative plays, and the offensive line play has been poor. The Bows have surrendered 24 sacks, and their team rushing average is just 3.4 yards per carry.
Nevada is 46th nationally in defensive Havoc achieved and should be able to exploit a weak Hawaii offensive line.
Hawaii is converting just 34% of its third-down attempts on the season and has settled for eight field goals in the red zone. It’s struggled all season to consistently sustain drives.
With the Nevada quarterback situation up in the air, the team has flipped from a slam favorite to the underdog in this game, but I really like the Wolf Pack’s run game and their stout pass defense.
Those elements usually travel pretty well.
I believe this game will be close, but Hawaii hasn’t defeated an FBS team this season, and I don’t believe it will here, either.
Take Nevada ML +105.
Pick: Nevada ML +110 (Play to +105)
