Editor's Note: The start of Colorado vs. UCF has been delayed until at least 4:05 p.m. ET due to lightning in the area, according to our own Brett McMurphy.
The Colorado Buffaloes (3-1, 1-0 Big 12) and UCF Knights (3-0, 1-0) — two teams that have gotten off to 1-0 starts in Big 12 play — square off on Saturday afternoon in Orlando.
The game was originally scheduled to kick off at 3:30 p.m. ET on FOX, streaming live on YouTube TV, the FOX Sports app and other streaming platforms, but has been delayed.
UCF enters as a consensus 13.5-point favorite on the spread over Colorado (UCF -13.5), with the over/under set at 61.5 points. UCF is a -537 favorite to win on the moneyline, with Deion Sanders, Travis Hunter, Shedeur Sanders & Co. +395 underdogs to pull off the upset on Saturday.
Both Central Florida and Colorado won their conference openers in dramatic fashion, overcoming fourth-quarter deficits to take the lead late — or in Colorado's case, in overtime. Who wins in Week 5?
Read my Colorado vs UCF predictions and college football picks for Saturday, Sept. 28.
Colorado vs. UCF Pick
- UCF vs. Colorado Prediction: UCF Team Total Over 38.5
My UCF-Colorado best bet is on the Central Florida team total over. Check out our live NCAAF odds page for the best odds.
Colorado vs. UCF Odds, Spread, Over/Under
| Colorado Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+13.5 -110 | 61 -110o / -110u | +360 |
| UCF Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-13.5 -110 | 61 -110o / -110u | -480 |
- Colorado vs. UCF spread: UCF -13.5 | Colorado +13.5
- Colorado vs. UCF over/under: 61
- Colorado vs. UCF Moneyline: UCF ML -480 | Colorado ML +360
Colorado Buffaloes vs. UCF Knights Betting Preview
Colorado Football
No team generates more box office theater than Deion Sanders and Colorado. Something crazy happens seemingly every game, and last week against Baylor was no different.
You have to give quarterback Shadeur Sanders a ton of credit for continuing to find receivers down the field while it feels like he's always running for his life.
Colorado needs to do a better job in pass protection, and it also needs to find more balance offensively.
It can't keep relying on Sanders and do-everything star Travis Hunter to make "scramble drill" type of plays as it gets into the heat of Big 12 play. That balance will be hard to find against a UCF defense that's stout against the run.
On the other side of the ball, the secondary remains a major concern, ranking outside the top 85 in the country in Pass Success Rate.
Yes, UCF is a run-first offense, but it's more than capable of throwing the ball down the field as well.
If Colorado is to remain competitive in the Bounce House, the defense will likely need to create a turnover or two.
UCF Football
What has made UCF a very good football team in 2024 is the fact that it runs the ball efficiently and stops the run on defense.
The numbers don't lie — UCF ranks second nationally in Offensive Rush Success Rate and Line Yards. On the defensive end? First and sixth.
That formula is going to make Gus Malzahn's team hard to beat all season.
Where the Knights need to clean it up is in the secondary. TCU quarterback Josh Hoover threw for over 400 yards against UCF and consistently found open receivers down the field.
Malzahn went to the transfer portal to address this position group in the offseason, and he's certainly hoping that the new faces will start to gel with each other as the year goes on.
Sanders and the Buffaloes offense obviously love to throw the ball, so this will be a challenging test against the likes of Hunter and LaJohntay Wester.
When the Knights have the ball, they should absolutely feast against a weak Colorado defense.
Malzahn's run game concepts have long been amongst the best in the sport, and with mobile Arkansas transfer quarterback KJ Jefferson coming over, it has been a perfect marriage so far.
Jefferson and running back RJ Harvey should have massive rushing lanes all afternoon and should have the opportunity to break some long runs that go all the way to the end zone.
That should also open up the play-action game where Jefferson is a capable passer.
UCF vs. Colorado Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how UCF and Colorado match up statistically:
Colorado Offense vs. UCF Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 42 | 1 | |
| Line Yards | 108 | 6 | |
| Pass Success | 55 | 126 | |
| Havoc | 101 | 91 | |
| Finishing Drives | 71 | 9 | |
| Quality Drives | 79 | 31 | |
UCF Offense vs. Colorado Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 2 | 42 | |
| Line Yards | 2 | 39 | |
| Pass Success | 52 | 86 | |
| Havoc | 11 | 74 | |
| Finishing Drives | 82 | 55 | |
| Quality Drives | 3 | 62 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 2 | 11 |
| PFF Coverage | 48 | 77 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 118 | 72 |
| Middle 8 | 41 | 44 |
| Seconds per Play | 25.3 (31) | 25.6 (33) |
| Rush Rate | 39% (134) | 73% (5) |
How to Bet My Colorado vs. UCF Prediction
There will be plenty of quick possessions in this game, either from big plays or just the sheer uptempo nature of the offenses. That will lead to plenty of points, but I'm far more confident in UCF consistently finding the end zone than I am Colorado.
As a result, I'm playing the Knights' team total, as I don't see Colorado having any answer for Jefferson and this dynamic offense.
UCF has had two weeks to prepare for this game, whereas Colorado enters coming off an emotional high after the crazy comeback against Baylor.
The Knights can move the ball a plethora of different ways and should have no trouble breaking 40 at home against a mediocre defense.
Pick: UCF Team Total Over 38.5
How to Watch Colorado vs. UCF
| Location: | FBC Mortgage Stadium, Orlando, FL |
| Date: | Saturday, Sept. 28 |
| Kickoff Time: | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | FOX / YouTube TV, FOX Sports App |
UCF vs. Colorado kicks off at 3:30 p.m. ET on Saturday. The game is airing on FOX and streaming live on YouTube TV, the FOX Sports app and other streaming platforms.
UCF vs. Colorado Betting Trends
- 75% of bets and 71% of the money are on Colorado to cover the spread against UCF.
- 55% of bets but only 30% of the money are on the over.
- 97% of bets and 98% of the money on the moneyline are on UCF to win outright.
Colorado vs. UCF Weather
