The Duke Blue Devils (5-0) will head to Atlanta to take on the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (3-2) in a Saturday night ACC bout. Kickoff is set for 8 p.m. ET on the ACC Network from Bobby Dodd Stadium.
The Blue Devils edged their arch rival North Carolina Tar Heels last week, 21-20, while the Yellow Jackets lost to Louisville, 31-19, in their last outing.
Duke will be looking to keep its win streak alive, but it's 10-point underdogs on the spread to Georgia Tech in a game with a total of 54.5 points. Georgia Tech is also -350 on the moneyline.
Here's my Duke vs. Georgia Tech predictions and my college football picks for Saturday.
Duke vs Georgia Tech Odds, Lines, Pick
| Duke Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+10 -110 | 53 -110 / -110 | +280 |
| Georgia Tech Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-10 -110 | 53 -110 / -110 | -360 |
- Duke vs Georgia Tech Point Spread: Georgia Tech -10
- Duke vs Georgia Tech over/under: 53 points
- Duke vs Georgia Tech moneyline: Georgia Tech -360
- Duke vs Georgia Tech pick: Duke +10
Duke vs Georgia Tech Preview
Duke Football
The Blue Devils are 5-0 this season, but they've won three one-possession games against UConn, Northwestern and North Carolina to start the year.
Manny Diaz’s squad has mainly gotten things done with its defense, which ranks 24th in success rate allowed, 19th in explosiveness allowed, 20th in finishing drives and eighth in Havoc.
Duke’s passing defense has been most impressive. The Blue Devils are 11th in PFF coverage grade and 16th in PFF pass rushing grade this season, and this is how it's generated a ton of Havoc.
This has helped the Blue Devils to rankings of 41st in passing success rate allowed, 22nd in passing PPA allowed and first in passing explosiveness allowed.
On the ground, they're 27th in success rate and 39th in PPA allowed, but they're 113th in rushing explosiveness allowed. The Blue Devils also rank just 85th in PFF run defense grade and 113th in tackling grade.
Offensively, they rank 107th in success rate, 98th in explosiveness and 119th in finishing drives. The Blue Devils pass at the 20th-highest rate in the country and are 39th in passing success rate. However, they're just 99th in explosiveness and 75th in passing PPA.
Quarterback Maalik Murphy has 10 touchdowns to four interceptions, but he's taken six sacks and is averaging -0.03 EPA per drop back this season.
The running game has provided no assistance for this Duke offense, as the Blue Devils rank 133rd in rushing success rate, 133rd in rushing explosiveness and 132nd in rushing PPA.
This has been one of the least productive rushing offenses in this country this season.
Georgia Tech Football
Georgia Tech sits at 3-2 this season, with its only losses coming by a field goal to Syracuse and against the ranked Louisville Cardinals.
The Yellow Jackets rank 18th in offensive success rate and 13th in finishing drives this season, as well as 37th in Havoc allowed. They prefer to run the ball (ranking 54th in rush rate) and have done so with great success, ranking 23rd in rushing success rate and 33rd in rushing PPA.
When they do choose to pass, they're efficient but not explosive. Georgia Tech ranks 14th in passing success rate and 13th in passing PPA, but it's 82nd in explosiveness.
Its ability to limit Havoc generated may bode well against a Duke defense that's thrived on Havoc this year. But the Yellow Jackets' ranking of 81st in PFF pass blocking grade is slightly concerning against this Duke front.
Georgia Tech ranks 87th in defensive success rate this season and 86th in finishing drives. It's 45th in rushing success rate allowed and 34th in rushing PPA allowed, which will provide a good matchup against a bad Duke rushing attack.
The Jackets' passing defense may be an issue in this matchup, however, as they rank 109th in passing success rate allowed and 95th in passing PPA allowed.
They're 36th in passing explosiveness allowed this year, but the defense ranks 124th in PFF coverage grade and 113th in pass rushing grade.
Duke vs Georgia Tech Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Duke and Georgia Tech match up statistically:
Duke Offense vs. Georgia Tech Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 116 | 27 | |
| Line Yards | 111 | 4 | |
| Pass Success | 65 | 119 | |
| Havoc | 56 | 85 | |
| Finishing Drives | 85 | 78 | |
| Quality Drives | 117 | 78 | |
Georgia Tech Offense vs. Duke Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 48 | 28 | |
| Line Yards | 112 | 21 | |
| Pass Success | 7 | 10 |  |
| Havoc | 31 | 3 | |
| Finishing Drives | 27 | 14 | |
| Quality Drives | 34 | 19 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 116 | 86 |
| PFF Coverage | 10 | 124 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 38 | 69 |
| Middle 8 | 63 | 7 |
| Seconds per Play | 23.7 (12) | 26.2 (48) |
| Rush Rate | 49% (90) | 52% (61) |
Duke vs Georgia Tech Prediction
Georgia Tech prefers to keep the ball on the ground, and I think it'll have success doing so in this matchup against a Duke team that struggles to stop the run or tackle.
The Jackets may have more trouble passing the ball than normal against a good Blue Devils’ pass rush, but their success on early downs on the ground should help to mitigate too many issues that they'll have through the air.
Duke leans on its passing attack, which should be able to find success down-to-down against a poor Georgia Tech secondary.
However, the Yellow Jackets have been good at preventing big plays through the air, and Duke hasn't generated many of those. We may see Duke's drives play out as more long and methodical rather than being of the quick-strike variety.
Duke isn’t the best team in the ACC and won’t stay undefeated for much longer, but I think that these two teams have less than nine points of difference between them.
I won’t play the over, as these are two slower-moving offenses, but I think both will find some success in this game.
Instead I like taking Duke at +10, as I believe it'll keep this matchup within a touchdown.
Pick: Duke +10 (Play to +7.5)
How to Watch Duke vs Georgia Tech Live: Start Time, TV Channel, Location
| Location: | Bobby Dodd Stadium, Atlanta, GA |
| Date: | Saturday, Oct. 5 |
| Kickoff Time: | 8 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ACC Network |
Duke vs Georgia Tech Betting Trends
- 59% of the bets are on Duke to cover the spread while 66% of the money is on Georgia Tech to cover.
- 55% of the bets are on the over while 65% of the money is on the under.
Duke vs Georgia Tech Weather
