The Duke Blue Devils (6-2, 2-2 ACC) are off to an impressive start this season, but they're big underdogs this week, as they head south to face the Miami Hurricanes (8-0, 4-0) this weekend. Kickoff is set for 12 p.m. ET on ABC from Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida.
Led by Heisman Trophy contender Cam Ward, the Hurricanes will look to avoid a scare as they attempt to continue their perfect season.
The Blue Devils, meanwhile, have fallen off after their hot start to the season. In fact, Duke has lost 2 of its last 3 to fall to .500 in conference play.
Miami enters Saturday as a 20-point home favorite on the spread with an over/under of 54.5 total points.
Let’s take a look at my Miami vs Duke predictions and college football picks for Saturday, Nov. 2.
Duke vs Miami Betting Lines and Prediction
- Duke vs. Miami Pick: Miami -21
My Miami vs. Duke best bet is on the Canes to cover the spread, with the best line currently available at bet365, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Duke vs Miami Odds, Betting Lines
| Duke Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+21 -110 | 55 -110 / -110 | +850 |
| Miami Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-21 -110 | 55 -110 / -110 | -1400 |
- Duke vs Miami Spread: Duke +21 (-110) · Miami -21 (-110)
- Duke vs Miami Over/Under: 55 Points
- Duke vs Miami Moneyline: Duke +850 · Miami -1400
Duke vs Miami Game Preview
Why Miami Could Win: The Impact of Cam Ward
Miami has been stellar on both sides of the ball this seasonm and it has propelled it to an 8-0 record and an inside track toward the ACC Championship.
The Hurricanes rank fifth in Success Rate and second in EPA Per Play this season, along with marks of seventh in Pass Success Rate and fourth in Rush Success Rate.
Quarterback Cam Ward has been powering this success, averaging an outstanding 0.37 EPA Per Dropback this season. Ward has been one of the most impactful transfer quarterbacks in college football this season, and his presence has taken Miami’s offense to another level.
Miami has scored at least 36 points in every game this season, dominating most of the teams on its schedule.
Things have gotten tighter in ACC play, where it has played three one-score games, but the Hurricanes are now getting into an easier portion of their conference slate.
Miami’s defense ranks fifth in Success Rate allowed and 26th in EPA Per Play allowed.
This defense is perceived to be a problem by many due to the high scores some of their opponents have managed, but much of this is driven by pace. Miami runs the 12th-most plays per game on offense and their opponents run the 20th most plays per game.
The Canes defense ranks fourth in Pass Success Rate allowed and 15th in EPA Per Pass allowed, along with marks of 12th in PFF Pass Rush grade and 32nd in PFF Coverage grade.
The weak spot in Miami’s defense is its rushing defense, as it ranks 48th in Rush Success Rate allowed and 97th in EPA Per Rush allowed. The Canes are 12th in PFF Run Defense grade but only 94th in PFF Tackling grade, which has led to them allowing big plays.
Luckily for them, they have faced the fewest rushing plays per game, as they're mostly playing from ahead, but this may be a flaw to watch for when they face a tough rushing attack or if the game script is not in their favor in future matchups.
Why Duke Could Win: Overall Record Far Exceeds Performance
Duke started this season 5-0 and now sits 6-2, but the Blue Devils' record far exceeds their performance on the field. Just last week, SMU turned the ball over six times on the road in Durham and still defeated the Blue Devils in overtime.
Duke ranks 114th in Success Rate and 119th in EPA Per Play this season while averaging the 42nd-most pass plays per game. It also ranks 85th in Pass Success Rate and 101st in EPA Per Pass.
The Blue Devils’ rushing game has been one of the worst in the Power 4 conferences, ranking 127th in Rush Success Rate and 128th in EPA Per Rush. They also sit 86th in PFF Run Blocking grade and will likely struggle to block the athletes Miami has.
Defense has carried Duke thus far, as it's 15th in Success Rate allowed and fifth in EPA Per Play allowed. This defense has been best against the pass, ranking seventh in Pass Success Rate allowed and EPA Per Pass allowed.
The D-line and secondary have both been exceptional, ranking 28th in PFF Pass Rush grade and fourth in PFF Coverage grade.
While this passing defense has been impressive, I don’t think it’s infallible. The Blue Devils have faced only two opponents that rank in the top 90 in Pass Success Rate this season, and both of them — SMU and Georgia Tech — posted above-average Offensive Success Rates and were at least around average in EPA Per Dropback.
Duke’s run defense ranks eighth in EPA Per Rush allowed but only 49th in Rush Success Rate allowed. It's also 46th in PFF Run Defense grade and 72nd in PFF Tackling grade, so this is a fine but not great rushing defense overall.
Duke vs Miami Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Duke and Miami match up statistically:
Duke Offense vs. Miami Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 127 | 42 | |
| Line Yards | 127 | 25 | |
| Pass Success | 80 | 12 | |
| Havoc | 36 | 12 | |
| Finishing Drives | 116 | 57 | |
| Quality Drives | 125 | 64 | |
Miami Offense vs. Duke Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 3 | 52 | |
| Line Yards | 4 | 30 | |
| Pass Success | 7 | 4 |  |
| Havoc | 9 | 4 | |
| Finishing Drives | 3 | 10 | |
| Quality Drives | 1 | 14 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 76 | 92 |
| PFF Coverage | 4 | 32 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 98 | 24 |
| Middle 8 | 87 | 16 |
| Seconds per Play | 24.8 (24) | 28.5 (97) |
| Rush Rate | 48% (98) | 48% (105) |
Betting Lines & Duke vs Miami Predictions
Miami’s offense has been one of the best in the country this season behind Ward. Duke’s defense is good on paper, but it's worse than its overall numbers show, as its schedule has not featured many good offenses.
I think the Canes will once again be able to push 40 points, as nothing has been able to slow them down yet.
Duke’s offense is outright bad and will face an uphill battle in this matchup. Miami’s rush defense has been its primary weakness, and I don’t believe the Blue Devils will be able to take advantage of that.
With the most likely game script being Duke trailing, I think they'll have to lean on Murphy to throw the ball, which will be tough against a good Miami passing defense.
Based on records alone, this spread feels high, but I love backing the Hurricanes this weekend. I believe they're one of the best teams in college football right now.
Pick: Miami -21 (-110, bet365)
Duke vs Miami Start Time, Channel, Streaming, How To Watch
| Location: | Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL |
| Date: | Saturday, Nov. 2 |
| Kickoff Time: | 12 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ABC |
Duke faces Miami in South Florida on Saturday at 12 p.m. ET on ABC.
Miami vs Duke Betting Trends
- 86% of bets and 84% of the money are on Duke to cover the spread
- 88% of bets and 34% of the money on the moneyline are on Miami (FL) to win outright
- 74% of bets and 73% of the money are on the over
Betting trends via our live, updating NCAAF public betting & money percentages page.
Miami vs Duke Weather
