The East Carolina Pirates (3-3, 1-1 AAC) head to West Point on Saturday for a matchup against the undefeated Army Black Knights (6-0, 5-0). Kickoff is set for 12 p.m. ET on ESPN2.
The Black Knights have been a cash cow and enter this matchup 6-0 against the spread. They've also been one of the best stories in college football. However, the Pirates match up quite well and could give Army a scare.
Army enters this game as a -16 favorite with the over/under set at 51.5.
So, where does the betting value lie here? Let's dive into my East Carolina vs. Army predictions and college football picks for Saturday, Oct. 19.
East Carolina vs Army Odds, Lines, Pick
| East Carolina Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+17 -105 | 53.5 -110o / -110u | +575 |
| Army Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-17 -115 | 53.5 -110o / -110u | -850 |
- East Carolina vs Army spread: Army -17
- East Carolina vs Army over/under: 53.5 points
- East Carolina vs Army moneyline: Army -850
- East Carolina vs Army pick: East Carolina +17
My East Carolina vs Army best bet is on the Pirates spread, with the best line currently available at bet365, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
East Carolina vs Army Betting Preview
I'm starting the day out by fading Army, which has gone 6-0 against the spread to start the season. What could possibly go wrong?
Well, for one, ECU could turn the ball over a million times, which the Pirates have done all season. I'm hoping a bit of positive regression hits in that area with ECU ranking 118th (-6) and Army in the top 10 (+7).
I also don't expect the Army defense to continue its outrageous success in the red zone with opponents scoring on only 41% of trips inside the 20 this season, which leads the nation. For reference, the Texas defense ranks second at 57%.
Army's offense has also scored touchdowns on an unsustainable 22-of-24 red-zone trips, while ECU has had one of the worst-performing red-zone offenses in the entire country in a metric that has plenty of short-term variance.
An extremely soft schedule that ranks 156th in the country including FCS teams has certainly helped juice up a lot of its metrics across the board. Army's six wins have come against the following teams:
- Lehigh
- Florida Atlantic
- Rice
- Temple
- UAB
- Tulsa
Not a single one of those five FBS opponents ranks inside the top 100 of my current power ratings with an average ranking outside the top 120. That's as easy as it possibly gets through six weeks.
ECU will also benefit from coming off a bye week (after an embarrassing loss to Charlotte), which is always beneficial against a service academy offense.
Army has gone back to its basic triple-option attack with a bit more modern principles, which this ECU defense should have plenty of familiarity with since it has faced Navy in each of the past five seasons.
From a metrics standpoint, ECU also fits the profile of a defense that can slow down Army's vaunted ground game led by quarterback Bryson Daily. The Pirates rank in the top 10 nationally in Rush Success Rate, EPA per Rush, Line Yards and Stuff Rate. That's the formula for containing this Army offense.
I also still have questions about the Army defense, which has played a bunch of carcasses, yet still ranks outside the top 90 in Success Rate.
While ECU has not been the model of consistency on offense primarily due to killer turnovers, it has flashed at times and has playmakers at the skill positions.
East Carolina vs Army Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how East Carolina and Army match up statistically:
East Carolina Offense vs. Army Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 112 | 90 | |
| Line Yards | 116 | 114 |  |
| Pass Success | 66 | 26 | |
| Havoc | 121 | 109 | |
| Finishing Drives | 126 | 2 | |
| Quality Drives | 111 | 3 | |
Army Offense vs. East Carolina Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 2 | 5 | |
| Line Yards | 1 | 4 | |
| Pass Success | 44 | 86 | |
| Havoc | 2 | 32 | |
| Finishing Drives | 3 | 86 | |
| Quality Drives | 1 | 36 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 66 | 54 |
| PFF Coverage | 24 | 52 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 19 | 46 |
| Middle 8 | 88 | 8 |
| Seconds per Play | 21.0 (1) | 33.6 (134) |
| Rush Rate | 50% (90) | 88% (1) |
East Carolina vs Army Prediction
To me, this is the very tippy-top of the market on Army. And not only am I selling high on the Black Knights, but I'm buying low on the Pirates after the debacle against Charlotte.
This is still a team that's two blown 17-0 leads against Liberty and App State away from sitting at 5-1 overall. It doesn't hurt that it's coming off of a bye and has a plus-run defense.
For what it's worth, service academies have historically covered at just a 41% clip as favorites of 14 or more points.
I have this game projected well under two touchdowns, so I'll happily take the points with the Pirates here.
Pick: East Carolina +17 (Play to +14)
East Carolina vs Army Start Time, Channel, Streaming, How to Watch
| Location: | Michie Stadium, West Point, NY |
| Date: | Saturday, Oct. 19 |
| Kickoff Time: | 12 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPN2 |
The East Carolina Pirates travel to West Point, New York, on Saturday to take on the Army Black Knights at 12 p.m. ET on ESPN2.
East Carolina vs Army Betting Trends
- 60% of bets and 62% of the money are on Army to cover the spread
- 98% of bets and 65% of the money on the moneyline are on Army to win outright
- 79% of bets and 68% of the money are on the over
East Carolina vs Army Weather
