Liberty (3-0) and East Carolina (2-1) meet on Saturday night (6 p.m. ET, ESPN+) in Lynchburg, Virginia, for a pivotal matchup between Group of 5 programs.
The Flames are looking to continue their long run of wins that started with a perfect season in 2023. Meanwhile, the Pirates dropped their first game of the year last week, but they've shown a lot of improvements to open 2024.
The Flames are the favorites at -7.5 on the spread with an over/under of 54.5. Liberty is -305 on the moneyline while East Carolina is a +240 underdog.
This is a game that could have major ramifications on the Group of 5 representative in the College Football Playoff, so here's my East Carolina vs Liberty prediction and pick.
East Carolina vs Liberty Predictions
- East Carolina vs Liberty Picks: East Carolina +7.5
My East Carolina vs Liberty best bet is on the Pirates spread with the best line currently available at Caesars Sportsbook, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
East Carolina vs Liberty Odds
| East Carolina Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+7.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 / -110 | +240 |
| Liberty Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-7.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 / -110 | -305 |
- East Carolina vs Liberty Spread: East Carolina +7.5 (-110) · Liberty -7.5 (-110)
- East Carolina vs Liberty Total: Over/Under 54.5 (-110/-110)
- East Carolina vs Liberty Moneyline: East Carolina +240 · Liberty -305
East Carolina at Liberty Preview
East Carolina Pirates Betting Preview: Turnovers Galore
Coming into last season, coach Mike Houston had to replace an entire offense, and it showed on the field. The Pirates finished with just two wins in a year in which they had to replace the program’s most-prolific quarterback, a 1,000-yard rusher and a pair of 1,000-yard receivers.
Houston made some big changes in the offseason on that side of the ball, which included shifting to the Air Raid offense with tempo. He also brought in multiple transfers at quarterback from Power Four programs.
Missouri transfer Jake Garcia earned the start in the first three games, and there's been some good and bad in his play so far.
Garcia has averaged just under 300 yards per game through the air in the victories, but the bad has been the eight interceptions he's thrown.
The Pirates have turned the ball over 12 times through the opening contests. Houston has to get this cleaned up before heading into conference play.
Liberty Flames Betting Preview: Injury Concerns?
When coach Jamey Chadwell made the jump from Coastal Carolina to Liberty, there were many that thought this was a head-scratching move.
However, Chadwell is proving he made the right decision.
He's guided the Flames to a program-record 15 straight wins in regular season games. This goes along with his 47-7 coaching record since the start of 2020.
The strength of the Liberty squad returned for another season as the duo Kaidon Salter and Quinton Cooley is back on offense.
However, one of the stars could be missing for this game.
In the win over UTEP last week, Cooley left the contest with an injury in the first quarter, and he never returned. Chadwell didn’t sound too confident that he would be back for this matchup.
Cooley’s replacement did have an impressive showing in relief in the victory, rushing for over 100 yards.
Even after that performance, it would be a huge loss if Cooley isn't able to suit up on Saturday.
East Carolina vs Liberty
Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how East Carolina and Liberty match up statistically:
East Carolina Offense vs. Liberty Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 97 | 53 | |
| Line Yards | 96 | 7 | |
| Pass Success | 31 | 56 | |
| Havoc | 114 | 58 | |
| Finishing Drives | 122 | 62 | |
| Quality Drives | 88 | 53 | |
Liberty Offense vs. East Carolina Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 40 | 7 | |
| Line Yards | 43 | 2 | |
| Pass Success | 68 | 69 |  |
| Havoc | 15 | 10 | |
| Finishing Drives | 76 | 31 | |
| Quality Drives | 82 | 18 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 117 | 89 |
| PFF Coverage | 15 | 76 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 8 | 114 |
| Middle 8 | 63 | 65 |
| Seconds per Play | 21.0 (1) | 28.4 (82) |
| Rush Rate | 52% (68) | 63% (23) |
East Carolina vs Liberty Pick & Prediction
This matchup feels like a game between two teams that are headed in different directions, and it leads me to take a side in this spot.
My best bet is to take East Carolina at +6.5, which I would play down to +4.5. I also don’t hate a sprinkle on the moneyline at anything +160 odds or better.
There are a couple of advantages I like for the visitors here, starting with how the Pirates are at stopping the run. Coming into this game, ECU ranked in the top 10 defensively in rush success and line yards.
With or without Cooley, Chadwell’s offense works best when it can establish the run, especially for a team that ranks in the top 25 in rush rate. I don’t trust Salter with his new weapons to be able to do it all through the air.
On the other side of the ball, I’m expecting Garcia to have success passing the ball against a weakened Liberty secondary. This is a unit that ranks outside the top 70 in coverage by Pro Football Focus.
This has also been a Flames squad that's underperformed compared to expectations at the betting window so far. They've failed to cover a spread in any game, which has come against much less competition in UTEP, New Mexico State and Campbell.
I've been impressed with how East Carolina has started this season, and I’m betting that to continue here in Week 4.
Pick: East Carolina +6.5 (Play to +4.5)
How to Watch East Carolina vs Liberty Live: Start Time, TV Channel, Location
| Location: | Williams Stadium (VA) |
| Date: | Saturday, Sept. 21 |
| Kickoff Time: | 6 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPN+ |
East Carolina vs Liberty Betting Trends
- 56% of the bets and 27% of the money is on Liberty to cover the spread against East Carolina on Saturday.
