It's time to highlight some lesser-exposed FCS games that provide a betting edge in Week 2.
We'll cover the angles, situations and mismatches that allow for profitable wagers to be considered. So, without further ado, let's dive into our FCS picks and predictions for Saturday, Sept. 7.
Here's my FCS predictions, including Week 2 picks for Duquesne vs. Boston College and more.
Duquesne vs. Boston College
There's a lot to like about what we saw Monday night from Boston College, and there's not as much to like about what we saw from Duquesne against Toledo.
BC pulled an absolute shocker in destroying Florida State on its home field as a 17-point underdog. The Eagles completely controlled the game and never trailed.
Thomas Castellanos played smart football, held onto the ball and made plays with his arm and legs to extend drives and put the ball in the end zone. Kye Robichaux ran the ball well as well.
The defense created in the face of DJ Uiagalelei, and he could not rise above it. The script for BC was textbook.
Meanwhile, Duquesne was blown out by Toledo and really struggled to get things going offensively. Quarterback Darius Perrantes ended up 15-of-26 for 143 yards, and the rushing attack was average.
Duquesne struggled on third down, going 3-of-12, as every drive in the second half ended with a punt. It did throw an interception going in to score before half that could have given it some momentum, but it was not to be.
Defensively, the Dukes played OK all things considered. Three of the Rockets' scoring drives were on short fields due to turnovers or special teams errors. Kick coverage was concerning for the Dukes, as Toledo recorded 161 combined return yards on kickoffs and punts.
Boston College is projected as a 39.5-point favorite in this matchup, which will include a talent disparity. The situation, however, may warrant a play on the Dukes.
BC will be playing this game less than five days after lining up against the Seminoles. It takes time to recover physically after a game, and oftentimes, teams will spend the day after watching film, getting in the weight room a bit and being in recovery before diving right back into full pads for the next week.
For BC, practice time will certainly be limited due to the scheduling situation. In addition, the Eagles play at Missouri the following week, and I would imagine they sneak some prep into that one and are likely not solely focused on Duquesne.
I'm not suggesting Duquesne wins this game or that it's even relatively close. I am suggesting that BC could get ahead by three scores and work through the two-deep and beyond to limit the load for the starters.
I would guess we don’t see Castellanos or the starting offensive line beyond the first half and that the approach will be run-heavy throughout.
If this line is released at 39.5 or higher, I will seriously consider playing the Dukes in this contest.
Target: Duquesne +39.5 or Better
Drake vs. Eastern Washington
Drake saw its season opener against D-II Quincy University get canceled and declared a “no contest” after severe weather in Des Moines created nearly a three-hour weather delay.
Both teams agreed to pull the plug and call it a night.
What we do know about the game is that Drake and Quincy played a first half. Drake led the game, 10-0 — not a great sign against a middling Division II team that has struggled since moving up to the D-II level.
It's also worth noting that the Bulldogs play in the Pioneer Football League, which is a non-scholarship league. While it is a Division 1 league, the PFL rarely sees its participants achieve wins against scholarship-level foes.
PFL members will often schedule local NAIA or lesser-ranked Division II opponents in the nonconference to bolster the record before conference play starts.
Eastern Washington, meanwhile, is a scholarship program — and the Eagles took it to Monmouth to start the year. The Eagles were extremely efficient on offense, racking up 547 yards of offense and scoring touchdowns on four of their five first-half possessions.
Kekoa Visperas went 25-of-28 passing for 275 yards and five touchdowns, while the run game also proved to be strong. Efton Chism III was rock-solid in the receiving department, grabbing 12 passes for 173 yards and three scores.
The defense did give up some yards against Monmouth, but that's a much stiffer test than Drake figures to be.
Drake is power-rated in the bottom half of the Pioneer Football League this year, and Eastern Washington is right up there with Montana and Montana State in the Big Sky Conference. The talent disparity between these two programs is massive.
To that end, we should be getting a massive spread, but the projected lines don't reflect that. There's no line currently available, but I see projections of Eastern Washington -19.5 all the way up to -27.5.
I don’t think it's enough either way.
Last year, Drake played three MVFC teams and lost by a combined score of 191-17.
If this line is released at Eastern Washington -19.5, I will be first in line to max bet the game at multiple books. I would play the Eagles all the way up to -35.
Target: Eastern Washington -35 or Better
Elon vs. NC Central
Elon actually had a solid defensive showing in its season-opening loss at Duke.
The Phoenix blew some early chances to get on the board, and while they weren’t going to win the game outright, they did the right thing late by avoiding the shutout and gaining a cover in the 26-3 loss.
Elon also frustrated Duke quarterback Maalik Murphy for much of the first half, and the Duke run game never got going and averaged 2.2 yards per carry for the game.
The problem for Elon is that it couldn't move the ball. It racked up all of 140 total yards and 11 first downs — a great indicator of how the evening went. The Phoenix were also 3-of-15 on third-down conversions.
NC Central overwhelmed Alabama State early and hung on for a 31-24 win on Sunday in the Orange Blossom Classic. Central was experiencing some turnover at key positions on offense, including replacing its star quarterback and some key defensive pieces.
The NCCU defense played well and created numerous third-and-long situations for Alabama State who was not equipped to convert.
Early projections have this line released at Elon -8.5, and if that's the case, that line is not a reflection of how even these teams are. I was impressed with both teams over the weekend, but my numbers have this game priced around a pick'em.
If Elon is released as a favorite of 7.5 or greater, a play on North Carolina Central is warranted.
Target: NC Central +7.5 or Better
Maine vs. Montana State
Montana State enters its third game of the season after dismantling Utah Tech last Saturday. The Bobcats are 2-0 and poised to make another run at the Big Sky Championship this fall.
They escaped Albuquerque with a narrow win over New Mexico in Week 0 and seemingly cleaned up some of the defensive issues that showed in that game.
Utah Tech, playing at home, picked up just six first downs and went 1-of-11 on third down. The Trailblazers had the ball for just 15:24 and ran only 40 total plays.
Montana State controlled the line of scrimmage, running for 329 yards in the contest. It now hosts Maine in its first home game of the season.
The Black Bears make the cross-country trip to Bozeman after narrowly escaping Colgate in the season opener. The Maine rushing attack could not get going, running for 101 yards on 37 attempts.
It was more efficient through the air with Mercer transfer quarterback Carter Peevy completing 17-of-22 passes for 186 yards.
The major concern for Maine is the offensive line. Last year, the unit was the worst in the CAA, as the Black Bears rushed for just 80 yards per game and allowed 20 sacks. They're now breaking in three new starters on the unit.
The defense is more experienced, but this is a really tall order in a tough road environment.
The projections on this game have Montana State favored by 26.5 with a total of 54.5. This game will have a massive disparity in the offensive and defensive trenches that favor Montana State.
The Bobcats are an excellent FCS football team, but they have not played a complete game yet this year.
Head coach Brent Vigen wanted to correct quite a bit after the New Mexico comeback win and seems to have shored up some things on defense. However, the offense was still a bit sluggish against Utah Tech.
It's worth noting that Montana State missed two field goals against the Trailblazers. The focus this week will be making sure drives end with touchdowns, not field-goal attempts.
If the line comes out at Montana State -27.5 or better, a play is warranted on the Bobcats.
Target: Montana State -27.5 or Better
Fordham vs. Central Connecticut State
Fordham received quite a bit of hype this offseason as the top-rated Patriot League team in the preseason. With 16 starters back and a winning pedigree, it was not hard to fall for the Rams.
They were a popular pick to potentially upset an FBS foe in Week 1, but their game against Bowling Green was never close. The Falcons ran back the opening kickoff, and before the sky turned to dusk, it was 27-0 midway through the second quarter.
I think that says more about Bowling Green than it does Fordham, however, and the Rams are still going to be rock-solid in Patriot League play. The Rams still put up 401 yards against a solid BGSU defense and played the Falcons even in the second half.
Central Connecticut State also squared up against an FBS MAC foe, and it was a disaster. CCSU lost to Central Michigan, 66-10, as Iowa transfer Joey Labas threw for 342 yards on just 18 completed passes for the Chippewas.
CMU kept CCSU in third-down situations that were favorable for the Chips, and the lack of passing attack inhibited the Blue Devils.
Central Connecticut also really struggled defensively last season, allowing over 400 yards per game and 5.0 yards per carry. It struggled to defend the pass and has a below-average pass rush, which will prevent it from being competitive in this matchup with Fordham.
Projections make Fordham a favorite of -14. It's not enough, in my opinion, as there's a major talent gap between two programs that are on two totally different trajectories.
If Fordham is better than -21.5, I'll be playing the Rams in this one.
Target: Fordham -21 or Better
