There are so many college football games in Week 1 involving two FBS teams, FBS vs FCS teams and FCS-only competition.
Here at Action Network, we are committed to giving you the Skinny on as many of those games as possible, so you can get in on the action.
Ultimately, some games receive more coverage and exposure than others, but this article will feature some quick hitters and what to watch for between lesser-discussed games of the week. These are specific games that I may or may not have a play on at the time of writing, but I will certainly post my thoughts, along with what I am looking for in a line.
I hope you find this exercise valuable and insightful. Let's get to it!
FCS Best Bets, Picks
Thursday, Aug. 29
Northwestern State vs. Tulsa
Tulsa takes on Northwestern State in the season opener for both teams, and this is a great spot to back the Golden Hurricane.
Northwestern State is going through a major rebuild this year after going 0-6 last year (1-5 ATS) and having their season postponed and ultimately canceled due to the tragic death of safety Ronnie Caldwell Jr. It was a very emotional time for the players and team, and ultimately, head coach Brad Laird cited this incident as the reason for his resignation.
This team has two returning starters on offense and is breaking in a new quarterback and four new pass-catchers. Plus, just one of the 16 offensive linemen have started here in the past.
The Demons also learning a completely new offensive system, and it's going to take time to unlock a successful O-line combination they can feel comfortable with. This is especially troubling, as they ran for just 2.6 yards per carry last year and allowed 19 sacks in just six games.
The defense is also a mystery, as two starters return.
If there's defensive improvement coming, I can't see it happening in this game.
Defensively, Tulsa will not be overly good this year, but this is a game where the defensive shortcomings will likely not show.
I don’t see Tulsa trying to run it up here, but it's hard to imagine it throttling it down in this game considering its quarterback competition.
Buy Point: Tulsa -31.5 (Play to -35)
Lafeyette vs. Buffalo
Pete Lembo returns to the MAC, taking over in Buffalo for departed Maurice Linguist. The Bulls return 10 starters — three on offense, seven on defense.
Their defense could be solid by MAC standards, but the offense could be a work in progress. Lafayette comes into this one with an offense that was on fire last year, averaging 39 PPG in Patriot League play, and they return it returns its starting quarterback, running back, three wide receivers and three starters on the offensive line.
The Leopards also return eight starters from a defense that did improve its yards per game last year which is a big accomplishment in the high-flying Patriot League.
Buffalo opened -7.5 and has been quickly bet down to -3.5.
The key to this game is if the Buffalo front seven can get home against the Lafayette OL, and create Havoc and negative plays. I'm currently holding out to see how low this line can get, but my buy point on Buffalo is -2.5.
Buy Point: Buffalo -2.5 or Better
Youngstown State vs Villanova
This is a sneaky good Thursday night FCS affair that will certainly get lost in the shuffle with all of the other action.
These two met in the FCS Playoffs last year with Villanova getting the win, but these teams will look a lot different this year.
Nova loses a lot of offensive production from last year, including its top three running backs, top two receivers and two starters from the offensive line. It did reload with experienced FCS transfers, but it could take some time to see that through.
The defense will be one of the best in CAA, but it did lose some pieces from the defensive line and will have to bank on backups to step up.
Youngstown State brings back everyone on the offensive line, which is considered the best in the Missouri Valley Conference — high praise given the rest of the teams in that league.
The Penguins added some experienced FBS transfers at running back from Cincinnati and three inexperienced former FBS players at wide receiver, but the massive question mark is quarterback.
Beau Brungard is more of a runner but did see action last year, and they have Max Blanc who could be in the mix. Defensively, only one starter returns from a middle-of-the-road MVC defense.
The Penguins are going to have to run the ball against an inexperienced Nova defensive line, but if last year’s reserves can step in and keep the status quo, this will be a really tough task for Youngstown State.
No one could run on them last year (sans UCF). Nova -9 could be worth a look, as could under 53.5.
Buy Point: Villanova -9 or Better · Under 53.5 or Better
Presbyterian vs Mercer
Presbyterian is in the midst of a brutal 10-year rebuild set back by poor coaching hires and lack of continuity, but head coach Steve Englehart seems to have the Blue Hose on somewhat solid ground.
They will be a decent Pioneer Football League member this year and have a chance to move up in the standings. In fact, they could be sneaky good in PFL play with 18 total starters back and drastic improvement last year in offense and defensive metrics.
From 2020-22, the Blue Hose went 3-19 (0-16 PFL), but won four games last year with their conference losses coming by an average of just 7.5 points.
Mercer is reloading under a new coaching regime, as Mike Jacobs comes in to replace Drew Cronic, who is off to Navy.
Mercer has only 10 total starters back and is replacing star quarterback Carter Peevy. The Bears also don’t have an experienced backup to fill the void.
They also lose their leading running back and top two receivers from last year, along with three from the offensive line.
Defensively, this group could be solid once again. The front seven is in great shape, and they have experience returning in the secondary as well.
While there's no line on this game yet (projected 39) and Mercer is undeniably the stronger team, I could see the Blue Hose having some measurable success here. If we see a line of 39 or higher, Presbyterian would warrant a small play.
Buy Point: Presbyterian +39 or Better
VMI vs William & Mary
VMI overperformed last year somehow, going 5-6, including upsetting Western Carolina to cost the Catamounts a spot in the FCS Playoffs, but the Keydets feasted on some bad teams.
This year, they lose quarterback Collin Ironside, their top three receivers and three on the offensive line. It will take some time to see production out of the unit this season.
The O-line gave up 35 sacks last year, and with an inexperienced quarterback at the helm, that's something to watch for here.
The defense is serviceable with seven back, and the front seven seems to be shored up pretty well. The secondary is a work in progress and could get torched in this matchup.
Last year, the Tribe started hot at 4-0 but really cooled down when their best player, running back Bronson Yoder, and quarterbacks started battling injuries.
They finished a disappointing 6-5, missing the playoffs. With more continuity and healthy skill position players, I look for W&M to return to its offensive form of 2022, when they averaged 35 points per game and 489 yards.
The defense returns four starters and will have to shore up the linebacker and secondary units.
VMI found ways to win last year despite being outgained severely on the season, but I can't see it having success here against a W&M squad that's looking to rebound from a disappointing year. I would try to find a Tribe -14 and lay the points.
Buy Point: William & Mary -14 or Better
Saturday, Aug. 31
Davidson vs Georgetown
Davidson is always near the top of the Pioneer Football League, and it returns seven starters from a dynamic triple-option offense that consistently leads FBS in rushing metrics.
The Wildcats rotated two quarterbacks last year, and they both return, along with their top running back, tight end, top two receivers and some offensive line experience.
Their defense is also loaded with talent with pieces back on the line and in the back seven.
They have potential to put a scare into a Georgetown team coming off its best season in five years.
However, the Hoyas have to replace their quarterback and top running back. They're fairly shored up on the offensive line and bring back everyone who contributed last year in the receiver room.
Defensively, seven starters are back. The strength of the defense is the pass D, which likely won’t be tested here against rush-oriented Davidson.
The projected line on this one is GU -14 or so, and that line seems too high for me. I would lean Davidson at this number, but we will have to wait until Saturday around 10:30 a.m. ET for a line on this one.
Buy Point: Davidson +14 or Better
Central Arkansas vs Arkansas State
We could see a really high-flying affair here in this one between the UCA Bears and Arkansas State Red Wolves.
The ASU offense really came on last year after the Memphis loss, and the Red Wolves had solid offensive outputs in every remaining home game, including an absurd 77 points and 487 yards against Texas State.
The defense was porous for most of the season, allowing 444 yards per game, including four games over 500 yards allowed.
This year, I expect the offense to be strong again at home, and with Jaylen Raynor, Ja'Quez Cross, and several receivers back along with four on the line, there are few offensive concerns.
Defensively, Ark State was really in rough shape, and any improvement this year will be marginal. UCA returns three-year starter Will McElvain at quarterback and top running back ShunDerrick Powell, along with four on the offensive line. It should be able to throw a punch or two in this game.
The bad news is that only four starters are back from last year's defense, so it's projected to take a step back in the defensive trenches and be weaker against the run.
I would expect the Bears to struggle to get pressure on Arkansas State, leading to the Red Wolves finding success offensively throughout the game. You really can't trust the Arkansas State defense to keep anyone down for too long, and with a projected spread of just 10 in this game, this will likely be a close back-and-forth game.
With two weak defenses, they should clear the current total of 55.5.
Buy Point: Over 55 or Better
