Along with plenty of FBS action, Saturday's Week 4 college football slate features a lot of FCS matchups.
Betting FCS is a whole new ballgame, with massive line movement, late odds releases, and if we're lucky, severe mismatches. Click here for my top FCS betting tips.
I have my eyes on four games featuring FCS teams today: South Dakota vs. Drake, SEMO vs. Southern Illinois, Norfolk State vs. VMI and Eastern Illinois vs. Illinois State.
Let's dive into my FCS picks for Saturday, Sept. 21.
South Dakota vs. Drake
This is a unique FCS situation, but both of these teams have had a game canceled already this season. Drake had its opener canceled, and last week, USD had its game against Portland State canceled and deemed a no-contest.
Drake enters 1-0 after a shocking road win at Eastern Washington as a 35-point underdog. The Bulldogs shredded EWU through the air, as Luke Bailey threw for 380 yards and a pair of scores.
USD almost recently lost a close affair with Wisconsin by a score of 27-13. The Yotes did struggle offensively against a Big Ten foe but should have an easier time of it this go-around at home.
Drake plays in the non-scholarship Pioneer Football League in FCS. The Bulldogs played three MVFC foes on the road last year and gave up 66, 55 and 70 points in those contests.
The Yotes have 10 returning starters on offense, including quarterback Aidan Bouman. The offensive line is solid and the skill group is tops in the Missouri Valley.
With a total projected at 48.5 or so, I would strongly consider playing the over here. USD has the offensive firepower to put up a big number on a Drake defense that has made a habit of getting blasted by the FCS elite.
With how much offensive punch Drake showed against Eastern Washington, it would not surprise me if it also contributes here in a game that shouldn’t be exceptionally close.
I expect USD to put up close to 50 points here in a big home win and would also expect Drake to punch in a couple scores in.
Pick: Over 48.5
SEMO vs. Southern Illinois
This is a pretty intense rivalry game here, as these two teams play the “War For The Wheel.”
SEMO had the game won last year and fumbled the victory away. Leading by 12, SEMO allowed two fourth-down conversions for SIU, which scored on a long touchdown drive. Attempting to run the clock out, SEMO running back Geno Hess fumbled on third-and-4, and it was by SIU, which went down and scored the game-winner with 11 seconds left to win by one point.
The last couple of games between these two have been very close matchups.
Southern Illinois is likely the stronger team this year, but starting quarterback D.J. Williams will not play in this contest due to injury. Junior Hunter Simmons will make his first career start.
Losing a dual-threat player like Williams will totally change the complexion of the Saluki offense, as he was the team's leading rusher in addition to throwing for 555 yards.
I like quarterback Paxton DeLaurent for SEMO. He's a veteran leader at the helm who has completed 60% of his passes this year with an 8-1 touchdown to interception ratio.
The SIU pass defense is suspect this year, as teams are throwing for 335 pass yards per game against it. SEMO has a predominately quick short passing game, which could help negate an above-average SIU pass rush.
The projected line here is SIU -8.5, which is too many points given the close nature of these games in the rivalry and the injury to Williams.
Pick: SEMO +8.5
Norfolk State vs. VMI
VMI comes into this one 0-3 on the season, but the Keydets have played quite the schedule up to this point. Facing W&M, Bucknell and Georgia Tech has really put pressure on the Keydet defense this season, and they have not risen to the challenge.
The VMI defense has been shredded through the air this year allowing 74% completions and 321 yards through the air on average.
Those numbers might look a little better after this week, however, as they're squaring off against a Norfolk State team that has one of the worst passing offenses in FCS.
Norfolk State is 1-3 on the season with its lone victory coming against Division II Virginia State. Through three games against Division 1 foes, Norfolk State has completed just 21of-40 passes and is averaging just 119 yards passing per game.
The Spartans are a run-heavy unit that keeps the ball on the ground 75% of their snaps.
Meanwhile, VMI also struggles through the air offensively. The Keydets' air attack is averaging just 118 yards per game.
VMI also has a decent running game, something I think it can use against a Spartan defense that has allowed 4.5 yards per carry on the season.
I see two run-heavy teams that struggle to move the football through the air and are both committed to the ground game. Each team could have moderate success in the run department, but with a lack of competent passing on either side, I can see the clock moving quickly here.
My play here is to take under 52.5 here.
Pick: Under 52.5
Eastern Illinois vs. Illinois State
Illinois State comes in 2-1 on the season with an explainable loss to Iowa in the season opener. The unexplainable performance was last week against a really bad Western Illinois team that went up and down the field for 503 yards and 31 first downs.
The Redbirds haven’t looked like a top-caliber MVFC defense yet all season after last week's performance and a rough performance against North Alabama.
To make matters worse, Illinois State is dealing with some significant injuries. Running back Mason King and offensive lineman Hunter Zambrano are out for the season, and stud linebacker Amir Abdullah is also out this week due to injury.
EIU has also struggled this year, but the struggles with this team are more understandable. The Panthers lost a pair of games against Big Ten foes and squeaked by Indiana State in between those contests.
Quarterback Pierce Holley is a solid player, and I look for him to elevate his performance as the season progresses while playing teams at the same level. I think the Panthers can take advantage of a shaky Redbird defense here with their returning experience.
Defensively, EIU has also played fairly well given the competition, hanging in there in the second half against Northwestern. Last year, these two played to a close 14-13 EIU win ,and the Panthers return just as much production and experience from last year’s team.
With the line currently at EIU +14.5 I see value in the dog here. Take EIU +14.5
Pick: Eastern Illinois +14.5
