Florida State vs Duke Prediction, Pick, Odds for Friday, October 18

Friday night lights make their way to the Atlantic Coast Conference in Week 8 when the Duke Blue Devils (5-1, 1-1 ACC) and Florida State Seminoles (1-4, 1-4) battle at Wallace Wade Stadium.

The Blue Devils enter this game needing just 1 win to secure a bowl bid in their 1st season under new head coach Manny Diaz.

Meanwhile, the Seminoles have struggled after the banner year in 2023, owning a 1-5 record overall.

With the struggles of both offenses, I’m not expecting many points in this one, but I do believe this gives us great betting value. So, let’s make some Duke vs. Florida State predictions and college football picks for Friday, Oct. 18.

Florida State vs Duke Prediction

• Florida State vs Duke Pick: Florida State Team Total Under 20.5

My Florida State-Duke best bet is on the Seminoles to go under their team total, with the best line currently available at FanDuel, according to our live NCAAF odds page.

Friday, Oct. 18

7 p.m. ET

ESPN2

Florida State Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
+3 -110	42.5 -110 / -110	+130

Duke Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
-3 -110	42.5 -110 / -110	-155

Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute NCAAF odds here.

• Florida State vs Duke Spread: Florida State +3 (-110) · Duke -3 (-110)
• Florida State vs Duke Over/Under: 42.5 Points
• Florida State vs Duke Moneyline: Florida State +130 · Duke -155

Florida State vs Duke Preview

Florida State Seminoles Betting Preview: Trying to Save a Lost Season

If you want to know how bad this season has been, the media relations department at FSU released the weekly game notes. One of the four “Numbers to Know” on the first page highlights the 16 punts of 50-plus yards by Alex Mastromanno.

I’m not here to disrespect punters. However, I have a feeling this would not have been one of the highlights during the undefeated season a year ago.

One thing to be positive about is this has been a spot where Mike Norvell has thrived as a coach. He's 9-3 in his career coming off an in-season bye week.

If you include season openers, non-Saturday games and bowls, his teams are 27-12 with more than seven days to prepare for a contest.

The other hope is that the extra time to prepare should only help the quarterback change to Brock Glenn. It's Norvell's last roll of the dice to try to save this season.

Duke Blue Devils Betting Preview: Strong Start in Durham

On the opposite end of the spectrum from FSU, this has been an excellent start to the season for Duke in Diaz’s debut campaign.

This is the Blue Devils’ second straight season with a 5-1 start. This marks the 25th time in school history Duke has done so and the first in back-to-back years since 2014-15.

One of the keys to the strong start has been how Duke has finished games, outscoring opponents, 40-20, in the fourth quarter.

Diaz’s squad has also been on the right side of closing out close games. Duke is tied for the ACC lead in one-score victories with three.

Teams can go a full season before this trend of close victories corrects itself the following year. If that's the case for Duke, the Blue Devils need to take advantage and find a way to make a bowl game.

Florida State vs Duke Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Florida State and Duke match up statistically:

Florida State Offense vs. Duke Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	109	39
Line Yards	121	23
Pass Success	129	6
Havoc	127	10
Finishing Drives	122	21
Quality Drives	130	16

Duke Offense vs. Florida State Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	122	86
Line Yards	114	78
Pass Success	75	125
Havoc	52	92
Finishing Drives	104	35
Quality Drives	119	113

Pace of Play / Other

PFF Tackling	56	80
PFF Coverage	111	18
Special Teams SP+	4	57
Middle 8	119	43
Seconds per Play	26.3 (47)	23.8 (11)
Rush Rate	44% (121)	48% (98)

Florida State vs Duke Pick & Prediction

If you had told me back in the summer that Duke would be the favorite in this game, I would not have believed you. This is the case, but I’m not ready to lay points with the Blue Devils.

Instead, I do believe in their defense against what has been a poor Florida State offense. So, my best bet is for the Seminoles to fall under their team total of 20.5 at FanDuel, which I would play down to 17.5.

I would recommend waiting until closer to kickoff, as I expect money to come in on FSU. Any movement toward the visitors on the spread should push this team total up, with the hopes of getting to the key number of 21.

You have to go all the way back to the Week 0 loss to Georgia Tech in Ireland to find the only game where FSU cleared this total. We could see some improvements off the bye, but it would take a big turnaround from what we’ve seen so far.

On the year, this Florida State offense ranks outside the top 120 in multiple categories, including Pass Success, Rate Finishing Drives and Quality Drives. The key issue has not been getting anything going through the air.

Even without a solid passing attack, Norvell's team still ranks outside the top 120 in rush rate. This also plays into a strength for Duke.

The Blue Devils rank in the top 10 in the FBS in both Pass Success Allowed and Havoc, while the unit is also ranked 18th in PFF Coverage grade. This is the same defense that's also inside the top 25 in both Finishing Drives Allowed and Quality Drives Allowed.

I’m not going to sell you on Duke’s offense in this spot, so I’ll just oppose the Florida State offense here on Friday night.

Pick: Florida State Team Total Under 20.5 (Play to 17.5)

• 77% of bets and 85% of the money are on Duke to cover the spread
• 86% of bets and 87% of the money on the moneyline are on Duke to win outright
• 90% of bets and 96% of the money are on the over

Betting trends via our live, updating NCAAF public betting & money percentages page.

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