We've got a Friday night Mountain West Conference showdown between the Fresno State Bulldogs (3-3, 1-1 MWC) and Nevada Wolf Pack (3-4, 0-1).
The Bulldogs are coming off a tough 25-17 loss to Washington State, while the Wolf Pack upset Oregon State in a high-scoring affair by a score of 42-37.
Both of these teams have performed over expectations thus far, giving us an intriguing Friday night battle.
Oddsmakers have the Bulldogs as 3-point underdogs on the road, and the total is set at 50.5.
Let's break down Friday night's clash and get to my Fresno State vs. Nevada predictions and college football picks for Friday, Oct. 18.
Fresno State Bulldogs vs Nevada Wolf Pack Prediction and Pick
I'm backing Fresno State against the spread here. My Nevada vs. Fresno State best bet is for the Bulldogs to cover the spread. Find the best line on our live NCAAF odds page.
- Fresno State vs. Nevada Pick: Fresno State -3
Fresno State vs Nevada Odds, Betting Line & Spread
| Fresno State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 +100 | 50.5 -105o / -115u | -145 |
| Nevada Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -120 | 50.5 -105o / -115u | +120 |
- Fresno State vs Nevada Spread: Fresno State -3 (+100)
- Fresno State vs Nevada Over/Under: 50.5 Total Points (-105o / -115u)
- Fresno State vs Nevada Moneyline: Fresno State ML -145 · Nevada ML +120
Fresno State vs Nevada NCAAF Week 8 Betting Preview
Fresno State Bulldogs Betting Preview
It was a tough loss for the Bulldogs last week as Washington State pulled off a miraculous second-half rally to seal the victory.
The box score will tell you that the Bulldogs dominated the game as they outgained the Cougars by 40 yards, but still lost the contest. Although the offense's performance was encouraging, it only scored 17 points.
For most of the season, the Bulldogs have struggled offensively. Their rush success rate and line yards are outside the top 115.
Quarterback Mikey Keene has decent passing stats, but his six interceptions suggest he must better protect the football. The Bulldogs are 50th in Pass Success Rate.
This is a good matchup against a struggling Nevada secondary, but there is legit talent in the cornerback room. Regardless, Keene should have ample opportunity to take advantage of the matchup.
The alarming issue with Keene is that the Bulldogs are 50th in Havoc allowed, so many of these mistakes appear self-inflicted. He has to protect the football if the Bulldogs are going to come away with a road victory.
Defensively, it should be a battle in the trenches as both teams have strengths in this department. The Wolf Pack are excellent at preventing Havoc, and the Bulldogs are just as strong at creating it.
The Bulldogs' secondary is also excellent, ranking 41st in Pass Success Rate Allowed. They also rank 55th in PFF Coverage grading.
The Wolf Pack are a below-average passing offense, so there is reason for optimism regarding the Bulldogs’ secondary. The defensive line has also been decent against the run, so points may come at a premium for the Wolf Pack.
Nevada Wolf Pack Betting Preview
The Wolf Pack allowed over 600 yards of offense to Oregon State last week, but still prevailed. They also ran 29 fewer plays, but did enough in the end.
Oregon State's offense has been dreadful, so it was alarming to see how effective it was against Nevada. That is highly concerning heading into a matchup against a Bulldogs team that has sustained an efficient passing attack thus far.
On offense, quarterback Brendon Lewis returned to action and only threw for 51 yards. However, he was elite on the ground, rushing for 151 yards and a touchdown.
I can’t believe I’m typing this sentence, but Lewis has the Nevada offense humming.
The Wolf Pack are 21st in Rush Success Rate and 33rd in Offensive Line Yards. They've also sustained consistent scoring drives and rank in the top 45 in both Finishing Drives and Quality Drives.
This isn’t the easiest matchup against an above-average Bulldogs defense, but I like Nevada’s chances of doing damage on the ground.
Defensively, there are legitimate concerns. The defense ranks outside the top 90 in Pass and Rush Success Rate allowed.
I can't back the Wolf Pack given their recent defensive struggles. Their offense has been outstanding, but I’m worried about the number of stops they can get throughout this game.
Nevada vs Fresno State Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Nevada and Fresno State match up statistically:
Fresno State Offense vs. Nevada Defense
 | Offense |  Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 115 | 101 | |
| Line Yards | 127 | 55 | |
| Pass Success | 50 | 84 | |
| Havoc | 65 | 80 | |
| Finishing Drives | 74 | 103 | |
| Quality Drives | 83 | 117 | |
Nevada Offense vs. Fresno State Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 21 | 61 | |
| Line Yards | 33 | 73 | |
| Pass Success | 77 | 41 | |
| Havoc | 40 | 42 |  |
| Finishing Drives | 42 | 70 | |
| Quality Drives | 26 | 64 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 72 | 117 |
| PFF Coverage | 55 | 36 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 94 | 120 |
| Middle 8 | 106 | 80 |
| Seconds per Play | 27.5 (70) | 30.6 (127) |
| Rush Rate | 49% (95) | 61% (26) |
Fresno State vs Nevada Best Bet and Pick
I will back the Bulldogs in a great bounce-back opportunity here. The Wolf Pack are coming off of a big win and may come out flat at home.
I really like what the Wolf Pack can do on offense, but the Bulldogs' secondary is an underrated group that should keep Nevada one-dimensional.
The Bulldogs’ offense should have plenty of success through the air against a struggling defense, and I believe they will be able to get their run game going, considering how bad the Wolf Pack rush defense has been.
Pick: Fresno State -3
Fresno State vs Nevada Start Time, TV Channel, How to Watch, Location
| Location: | Mackay Stadium, Reno, NV |
| Date: | Friday, Oct. 18 |
| Kickoff Time: | 10:30 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | CBS Sports Network |
Fresno State vs Nevada Betting Trends to Know
- 56% of bets and 70% of the money are on Fresno State to cover the spread
- 86% of bets and 87% of the money on the moneyline are on Fresno State to win outright
- 87% of bets and 97% of the money are on the over
Betting trends via our live, updating NCAAF public betting & money percentages page.
Fresno State vs Nevada Weather Forecast
