College Football Picks & Odds for Friday
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7 p.m. | |
  | 7 p.m. | |
  | 9 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Friday. Night. Lights.
There's something special about the lights shining on the gridiron before a massive Saturday slate that features wall-to-wall action. Consider this the appetizer to the main course.
While there wasn't a single college football game on Thursday, we have three lined up for Friday night.
First, the BYU Cougars make the trip to Dallas to take on the SMU Mustangs in a Big 12/ACC clash (yes, we know that still feels off). Then, the new-look Indiana Hoosiers host one of college football's worst teams in the Western Illinois Leathernecks of the FCS.
And to wrap it all up, we have an ACC/Big Ten battle in Evanston between the Duke Blue Devils and Northwestern Wildcats.
Read on to see Friday college football odds and picks — and let's start the weekend on a high note.
BYU vs. SMU Pick
By Doug Ziefel
The SMU Mustangs didn't make a great first impression in their season opener against the Nevada Wolf Pack. However, the Mustangs got right against Houston Christian and are now set to host the BYU Cougars.
As for the Cougars, we got to see a bit of why some are high on this offense. BYU ran through Southern Illinois and looks primed for its road test of the season
Let's dive into this one and get to my BYU vs. SMU prediction under the Friday night lights.
BYU Cougars
While many thought former Baylor quarterback Gerry Bohanon would win the starting job, it was the other transfer, Jake Retzlaff, who took nearly all the snaps in BYU's season opener.
Retzlaff showed why he won the job with his performance against Southern Illinois. He went 20-of-30 passing for 348 yards and three touchdowns. While SMU is a step up from Southern Illinois, the Cougars passing attack should really test their secondary.
The Mustangs' weakest defensive unit is their cornerback group, and they will have to contend with a dynamite receiver in Chase Roberts. Roberts was Retzlaff's main target, as he went for 108 yards on seven receptions.
However, the Cougars aren't one-dimensional. They have a pair of talented running backs in LJ Martin and Hinckley Ropati. The duo split carries last week and both found the end zone, but Martin was slightly more efficient.
The Mustangs have been stout against running backs but struggled to contain a mobile quarterback in Nevada's Brendon Lewis. That may open up a package of plays for Bohanon, the more mobile quarterback, to be effective.
SMU Mustangs
When it comes to the SMU offense, we don't quite know what to expect. Both quarterbacks, Preston Stone and Kevin Jennings, have seen significant snaps in each of the first two games.
They each bring a different dynamic, as Stone is your typical pocket passer, but Jennings can hurt opposing defenses with both his legs and his arm.
While it should be expected that we'll see more of Stone against a quality opponent, he'll be facing an experienced BYU secondary. This BYU secondary brought back all its starters and four of its top six tacklers.
This is going to be the game where SMU needs to prove it has the high-flying offense many were excited about when the Mustangs entered the ACC.
However, BYU can't be overlooked defensively as the Cougars have developed the talent needed to compete in a power conference, just like the Mustangs.
BYU vs SMU Prediction, Pick
This spread has been fun to watch throughout the week. I grabbed the Cougars at +11.5 upon opening, as my projection has them as around six-point underdogs.
Since then, we've seen this spread rise to 12 and then crash down to as low as 10.5. Some buyers at 10.5 have brought it back to where it started.
However, we haven't seen a significant move since Wednesday, which tells me we have a good number.
The matchup supports this as well. SMU has to prove itself, and BYU can't be counted out.
Take the points.
Pick: BYU +11.5 (Play to 10.5)
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Western Illinois vs. Indiana Pick
By Dan Keegan
A clash between the Western Illinois Leathernecks and the Indiana Hoosiers is perhaps the best showdown of school nicknames we'll have all season.
I don’t even know what a Leatherneck is, let alone a Hoosier. Aren't college sports the best?
But you don’t need to be an etymology expert to analyze a matchup between a rising Indiana program and one of the worst programs in all of D-I. The Hoosiers are heavily favored in this clash.
Curt Cignetti, the author of James Madison’s stunningly successful transition into the FBS, is in his second contest as Indiana’s head football coach. He brought a horde of talented JMU players to patch into his new roster.
Will the Hoosiers have gelled enough to cover their largest spread all season?
Let’s get into my Western Illinois vs. Indiana prediction for Friday, Sept. 6.
Western Illinois Leathernecks
The Leathernecks are at the very nadir of FCS football.
They finished last year in the cellar of the Missouri Valley Conference. Although, they hopped over to the more manageable Big South-Ohio Valley Conference starting this season. The program finished last in the FCS in total offense and defense in 2023.
They have not won a game since 2021, a close one against Youngstown State. Last week, they were destroyed by Northern Illinois. The Huskies ranked 123rd in preseason SP+ on offense, and yet they put 706 total yards and eclipsed the half-century mark on the Leathernecks.
The program does have a new head coach, Joe Davis. He was previously an offensive coordinator for Eastern Illinois and Albany and had good results at both. Perhaps, over time, he will bring some new blood to the offense.
But in the meantime, he presides over a program on a 25-game losing streak that last year allowed 50 more touchdowns than it scored.
Indiana Hoosiers
Curt Cignetti is a winning coach – Google him.
The new head man for the Hoosiers has won at every stop, including a recent five-year stretch at James Madison, where he went 52-9. He made it to the playoff semifinals in his three years in FCS and finished first in the Sun Belt East both years in FBS.
And now, at 63, he can prove himself in a Power conference school.
He took over an Indiana program that went 3-9 last season and is sparking it to life. His roster is built with Indiana holdovers, productive veterans from other schools, and a heap of James Madison’s finest players from last year.
Last week, his new-look Hoosiers took down FIU 31-7. Ohio transfer Kurtis Rourk threw for 180 yards and a score; he will only continue to improve in Cignetti’s offense, which is like playing in easy mode for quarterbacks.
The running game was imposing. The three-headed backfield monster of Elijah Green (UNC), Justice Ellison (Wake Forest) and Ty Son Lawton (James Madison) combined for 224 yards on the ground.
All told, the offense accounted for 0.19 EPA per Play, which the Hoosiers didn't achieve even once last year, even in wins against Akron or FCS Indiana State. To do that in Cignetti’s first game shows how much he has improved this team.
The defense was also excellent, infusing some of the Tom Allen era holdovers with JMU’s stars like Aidan Fisher, D’Angelo Ponds, and big #99 himself, James Carpenter. They held FIU under 200 total yards.
Western Illinois vs Indiana Prediction, Pick
If you’ve followed Cignetti’s work, you know he coaches with a chip on his shoulder. His itinerant career has infused him with a bulldog mindset, and he is not afraid to hang a large number on the scoreboard.
He was on fire until the final gun against FIU, coaching and calling plays in a manner that betrayed his knowledge of the spread and desire to cover it.
The Hoosiers have their conference opener after this one, an extremely winnable game against UCLA. Cignetti will need his squad fine-tuned. I believe his team will play hard to the final gun as he continues to fiddle with the knobs to lock in his lineups.
Even if he gives more time to the backups, there is still enough depth in the running game to score at will against this moribund opponent.
I like Indiana to hang their most lopsided win over the season and would play it to -45.
Pick: Indiana -45 or Better
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Duke vs. Northwestern Pick
By John Feltman
It's Friday Night Lights time! The Duke Blue Devils look to build off their Week 1 victory as they hit the road to take on the Northwestern Wildcats.
The Cats are coming off a home victory over Miami (OH) and have a chance of starting the season 2-0. Both teams are going through a lot of change on both sides of the ball, so it'll be interesting to see how the game's dynamic plays out.
Let's dive into my Duke vs Northwestern prediction and game preview for 9/6.
Duke Blue Devils
There was a moment last week in the Blue Devils' matchup against Elon where they reached the end zone in the final minutes of the first half. It was not the prettiest showing for Manny Diaz's first game as head coach, but Duke ultimately took care of business in the second half.
Duke has a lot of changes within their program, thanks to former head coach Mike Elko packing his bags for College Station. The Blue Devils are among the nation's worst teams in returning production, ranking 115th.
It is the Maalik Murphy show at quarterback, as the former Texas Longhorn transferred to Duke in the offseason. Murphy has a ton of upside as a runner and passer, but I wonder if the Blue Devils have the tools for him to thrive.
Last week, Duke ran for just 59 yards on the ground, which could be a better sign heading into a matchup with the Wildcats. The Blue Devils have to win the game through the air, but they're built to be an Air Raid offense.
Duke posted a top-50 Defensive EPA per Play Allowed last season, which should limit the explosiveness of this Wildcats offense.
Defensively, the Blue Devils should be able to contain Mike Wright's dual-threat ability. Although Elon is an FCS school, I liked what I saw from the defense last week.
Diaz is a defensive-minded coach, so it's safe to say the defense won't drop off much from a year ago under Elko. I expect the defense to do its part against a Wildcats offense that scrapped together just 13 points against a MAC foe squad last week.
Northwestern Wildcats
We faded the Wildcats last week, and unfortunately, Miami (OH) couldn't get into the end zone. The Cats defense showed up in a big way, and it's clear already that it will be their most robust unit as a team.
Before even diving into the matchup, I was stunned to see that our Action Network team projects the Wildcats as nearly 11-point favorites over the Blue Devils.
While it would make sense to jump all over the Wildcats as short favorites under a field goal, but there's a reason I won't ride with the projections.
First, quarterback Mike Wright was the only form of offense for the Cats last week, as he was the team's leading passer and rusher. I expect the Blue Devils to contain Wright on the ground, which puts pressure on Northwestern's backfield.
Duke was excellent against the run last year, and Diaz's 4-2-5 hybrid defense is tough to crack. He's consistent about having the "best 11 guys on the field" at all times.
Considering the total has dropped significantly since opening, I expect the Cats offense to be a minor factor. Cam Porter averaged 4.8 YPC last week, but now he has a much taller task against a solid Duke defensive front.
The Wildcats analytically should be a bet, but I will pass based on the question marks surrounding Wright against a solid defensive-minded coach.
Duke vs Northwestern Prediction, Pick
We're getting a lower number than what the market opened, but I love the under here.
Both of these offenses have many issues, and these defenses do an excellent job of preventing explosive plays.
We still need more data on both teams, and I don't want to back the Blue Devils after losing so much talent. Typically, I lean on backing the underdog with such a low total, but not here.
Both of these teams will try to run the football, which will correlate to a lot of clock running. It has all the makings for an ugly Friday night game, and with the public backing the over but the total continuing to drop, it makes me like the under even more.
Pick: Under 37 (Play to 36)
