The college football world will have all eyes tuned in when two top-5 teams in the Texas Longhorns (6-0, 2-0 SEC) and Georgia Bulldogs (5-1, 3-1) meet in Darrell K Royal – Texas Memorial Stadium on Saturday, Oct. 19. Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET on ABC, ESPN+ and YouTube TV.
Texas is a consensus 4-point favorite over Georgia on the spread (Texas -4) with the over/under currently 57 points. The Longhorns are -186 favorites on the moneyline, while the Bulldogs are +155 underdogs.
The Longhorns will play host to the Bulldogs one week after blowing out rival Oklahoma 32-3 in the Red River Showdown. Head coach Steve Sarkisian's journey to creating an Alabama-esque dynasty in Austin is in full swing after making the national semifinal last season. Texas has dominated the biggest names on its schedule away from home, including the Sooners in Dallas and Michigan in Ann Arbor.
The narrative has been different for Georgia head coach Kirby Smart, who has struggled in two road games thus far. Georgia survived Kentucky in Lexington 13-12 in Week 3, but a full 2 weeks to prepare did not help the Bulldogs in a 41-34 loss in Tuscaloosa.
Let's take a look at my Georgia vs. Texas predictions and my college football picks for Week 8 Saturday.
Georgia vs. Texas Odds
| Georgia Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4.5 -112 | 56 -112 / -108 | +160 |
| Texas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4.5 -108 | 56 -112 / -108 | -192 |
- Georgia vs Texas spread: Texas -4.5
- Georgia vs Texas over/under: 56 points
- Georgia vs Texas moneyline: Texas -192, Georgia +160
- Georgia vs Texas best bet: Georgia 1H +3
- 50% of the bets are on Texas to cover the spread.
- 52% of the money is on Texas ATS.
Georgia vs. Texas Picks and Predictions
Prediction
- My Pick: Georgia 1H +3
My Texas vs. Georgia best bet is on the Bulldogs to cover the first-half spread, with the best line currently available at DraftKings, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
The Longhorns are looking to remain unbeaten, while Georgia is looking to avoid its second SEC loss of the campaign.
Moneyline
I'm not targeting a full-game winner for this SEC battle, but I think Georgia will keep things close in the first half — and/or win the half.
Against the spread
I'm not targeting the full-game spread, but I am on Georgia to hit the first-half spread of +3.
Over/Under
Nothing about the total intrigues me, as I want Kirby Smart's bunch to have a big opening half to hit +3 on the first-half spread.
My pick: Georgia 1H +3
Georgia Football
There has been a slew of negativity around the Bulldogs defense since their Week 5 loss at Alabama.
Georgia has dealt with injuries and inefficiency at all levels, from producing minimal pass rush to linebackers who are overmatched in coverage.
Smart was keen on playing up the injuries to the defensive line in his weekly presser, mentioning interiors Christen Miller and Warren Brinson's struggles to stay healthy.
There could be good news from an injury perspective this week, as edge Mykel Williams continues to push toward full speed. Georgia desperately needs the junior to anchor a pass rush that has not generated a single quarterback hurry in the past two games against SEC competition.
The Bulldogs offense has struggled to find playmakers for coordinator Mike Bobo. They rank outside the top 50 in both Rushing Success Rate and Line Yards, so there hasn't been any push in the trench.
Florida transfer Trevor Etienne has seen a small uptick in yards after first contact but has created only two explosive runs in his previous 39 attempts.
The passing attack has also experienced plenty of setbacks for quarterback Carson Beck.
Keyhole throw from Carson Beck. Phew. pic.twitter.com/k6lYqsWwvZ
— Cory (@fakecorykinnan) October 16, 2024
Beck has seen a spike in his turnover-worthy play rate with the longest time to throw of his career at 2.6 seconds.
Slot Dominic Lovett has generated the most targets in the passing game, but lockdown safeties have created a 38% contested catch rate.
Beck has yet to find a rhythm with any other targets, as Dillon Bell and Lawson Luckie boast subpar marks in yards per route run. Arian Smith has emerged as an explosive target at wideout but ranks second nationally in dropped passes.
Texas Football
The Longhorns have quietly ascended through the 2024 campaign to the penthouse of the AP Top 25 and Action Network's Betting Power Ratings.
Most circles have Texas as the odds-on favorite to win the National Championship thanks to impressive victories over a pair of top-20 teams.
If there's a fly in the ointment for Sarkisian's fourth season, it can't be found in the analytics but rather a softer strength of schedule.
The Texas defense has faced one of the easiest schedules of offenses in the nation, including Michigan and Oklahoma teams that have all but abandoned the passing game.
The secondary ranks at the top of the leaderboard in numerous categories against the pass, from coverage to limiting explosives.
Coordinator Pete Kwiatkowski has called all the right plays when opposing offenses threaten to score. In 20 opponent possessions to cross the Longhorns' 40-yard line, teams have left with an average of 1.6 points.
The area of focus on defense comes with a fresh interior that allowed a high Success Rate to the rushing attacks of Colorado State and Mississippi State.
Unlike the defense, the offense has been well-tested against top-15 defenses, including Michigan and Oklahoma. Texas racked up 58% of available yards against the Wolverines, posting two first downs on six of its 10 drives.
The numbers were even more impressive at Red River, as the Longhorns posted a yards-per-play mark double that of the Sooners.
With the top-ranked pass-blocking unit up front, Quinn Ewers returned under center against Oklahoma to complete 28-of-32 passing attempts for 199 yards, a touchdown and an interception.
Georgia vs. Texas Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Georgia and Texas match up statistically:
Georgia Offense vs. Texas Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 59 | 26 | |
| Line Yards | 80 | 34 | |
| Pass Success | 19 | 3 | |
| Havoc | 45 | 8 | |
| Finishing Drives | 14 | 1 | |
| Quality Drives | 23 | 1 | |
Texas Offense vs. Georgia Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 16 | 33 | |
| Line Yards | 73 | 46 | |
| Pass Success | 21 | 59 | |
| Havoc | 55 | 84 | |
| Finishing Drives | 15 | 38 | |
| Quality Drives | 21 | 49 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 21 | 34 |
| PFF Coverage | 50 | 1 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 7 | 84 |
| Middle 8 | 4 | 3 |
| Seconds per Play | 27.7 (72) | 25.8 (37) |
| Rush Rate | 44% (113) | 54% (56) |
Texas continues to play lights-out against a strength of schedule that ranks 82nd. The Longhorns have yet to face an offense in the top 50, per SP+, suggesting caution to a leaky run defense.
Texas ranks just outside the top 25 in Opponent Rushing Success Rate, Stuff Rate and PFF tackle grading.
Georgia will have an advantage in rushing attempts, ranking 33rd in Success Rate against a strength of schedule of seventh nationally.
Etienne will be used on inside zone runs, a run concept Texas has posted a lukewarm 51% Success Rate against.
There are advantages for Beck against Texas' quarters coverage, as the quarterback possesses a 58% Success Rate while generating an explosive on 18% of attempts against that coverage.
The Longhorns run a heavy amount of quarters at a mid-FBS efficiency level, so look for Beck to target short-range options.
Health and experience are all that's lacking on Smart's defense, and both are improving week after week.
The Bulldogs could also be in luck this week from a situational spot perspective.
Texas won the Red River Showdown against Oklahoma, a game the Longhorns have struggled to follow. Texas lost to Oklahoma State in the 2021 post-Red River game and pulled off narrow victories as heavy favorites over Iowa State in 2022 and Houston a season ago.
The Action Network Power Ratings call for Texas to be favored by a touchdown.
The news of Texas wide receiver Isaiah Bond's positive injury status boosted the market, as Georgia moved to a 5-point underdog. More importantly, though, it moved the first-half line to a field goal.
Georgia has been tested already, so look for its experience and better health to play a factor in the first two quarters of this game.
Pick: Georgia 1H +3
