The Hawaii Rainbow Warriors (3-5, 1-2 MWC) will head east this week to take on the Fresno State Bulldogs (5-3, 3-1) on Saturday. Kickoff from Valley Children’s Stadium in Fresno, California, is set for 7 p.m. ET on Spectrum PPV.
Hawaii had lost 3 straight before toppling Nevada, 34-13, last week. Fresno State, meanwhile, comes in on a 2-game winning streak, most recently beating San Jose State by a score of 33-10.
The Bulldogs are a 14-point home favorite in this matchup with a total of 48.5.
Let’s take a look at my Hawaii vs. Fresno State predictions and college football picks for Saturday, Nov. 2.
Hawaii Rainbow Warriors vs Fresno State Bulldogs Prediction
- Hawaii vs. Fresno State Pick: Hawaii +12.5
My Fresno State vs. Hawaii best bet is on the Rainbow Warriors to cover the spread, with the best line currently available at BetMGM, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Hawaii vs Fresno State Odds, Betting Line, Spread
| Hawaii Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+11.5 -110 | 45.5 -110o / -110u | +375 |
| Fresno State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-11.5 -110 | 45.5 -110o / -110u | -500 |
- Hawaii vs Fresno State Spread: Fresno State -11.5
- Hawaii vs Fresno State Over/Under: 45.5 Total Points
- Hawaii vs Fresno State Moneyline: Hawaii ML +375 · Fresno State ML -500
Hawaii Football vs Fresno State Football Preview
Hawaii Warriors Betting Preview: Threat on the Ground?
The Rainbow Warriors are sitting at 3-5 on the season, and a win this weekend would go a long way toward qualifying for a bowl game. They will need to win three of their next four in order for this to happen.
Hawaii ranks 43rd in Success Rate this season but just 73rd in EPA Per Play. It's been effective on the ground, ranking 21st in Rush Success Rate and 31st in EPA Per Rush, but it sits only 132nd in Rush Rate as a primarily passing offense.
The Rainbow Warriors are 60th in Pass Success Rate and 83rd in EPA Per Pass this season. Quarterback Brayden Schager is averaging -0.02 EPA Per Dropback in his third season starting for Hawaii with 1,941 passing yards and 13 touchdowns.
He doesn’t have much of a track record as a running quarterback, but last weekend, he ran for 128 yards and four touchdowns against Nevada and has already demolished his career high in both rushing yards and rushing touchdowns in a season.
Hawaii's defense is 58th in Success Rate allowed but 90th in EPA Per Play allowed, as it has been susceptible to allowing big plays. It's rushing defense has been the strongest part of this unit, ranking 30th in Rush Success Rate allowed, 34th in PFF Run Defense grade and 45th in EPA Per Rush allowed.
The passing defense has been their major issue. They come in at 88th in Pass Success Rate allowed and 108th in EPA Per Pass allowed. While they're 24th in PFF Coverage grade, they haven't generated any pressure, sitting just 109th in PFF Pass Rush grade.
Fresno State Bulldogs Betting Preview: In the Title Hunt
Fresno State is 5-3 on the season and 3-1 in conference play. With three teams that are undefeated still in Mountain West play, the Bulldogs will need to win this game to stay alive in the hunt for an MWC Championship appearance.
Fresno State’s offense has not shown up this season, as it ranks 107th in Success Rate and 108th in EPA Per Play compared to 60th in Success Rate last season under Jeff Tedford with the same quarterback in Mikey Keene.
This season, Keene is averaging 0.05 EPA Per Dropback and has 2,041 passing yards, 11 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. As a whole, this passing attack ranks 81st in Pass Success Rate and 97th in EPA Per Pass this season.
The Bulldogs have struggled to get anything going on the ground this season, ranking 122nd in Rush Success Rate and 115th in EPA Per Rush. Their offensive line sits 32nd in PFF Run Blocking grade but just 111th in PFF Pass Blocking grade, so the offensive line play doesn’t necessarily explain why they haven’t been running the ball effectively.
Defensively, Fresno State is once again a scary team. The Bulldogs are 38th in Success Rate allowed and 19th in EPA Per Play allowed.
The passing defense will be what we see the most of this weekend, as they rank 25th in Pass Success Rate allowed and 27th in EPA Per Pass allowed. The Bulldogs are 57th in PFF Coverage grade this season and 71st in PFF Pass Rush grade.
Fresno State vs Hawaii Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Fresno State and Hawaii match up statistically:
Hawaii Offense vs. Fresno State Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 36 | 85 | |
| Line Yards | 14 | 41 | |
| Pass Success | 57 | 26 | |
| Havoc | 89 | 38 | |
| Finishing Drives | 59 | 53 | |
| Quality Drives | 93 | 43 | |
Fresno State Offense vs. Hawaii Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 107 | 43 | |
| Line Yards | 109 | 77 | |
| Pass Success | 85 | 99 | |
| Havoc | 56 | 58 |  |
| Finishing Drives | 103 | 76 | |
| Quality Drives | 75 | 76 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 71 | 92 |
| PFF Coverage | 23 | 55 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 120 | 101 |
| Middle 8 | 109 | 99 |
| Seconds per Play | 27.6 (79) | 27.4 (71) |
| Rush Rate | 42% (133) | 51% (95) |
How to Bet Hawaii vs Fresno State
Fresno State skews toward the pass on offense, which is not great news for a Hawaii defense that has been much better at defending the run. However, Fresno State’s offense has been below average when passing the ball, so this matchup may even out.
Hawaii will want to throw the ball with Schager, which isn’t recommended against Fresno State’s defense. The Rainbow Warriors have been effective on offense this season, though, and should be able to move the ball a bit.
While I do believe the Bulldogs have an advantage in this matchup overall due to their defense, I don’t trust the Fresno State offense and think Hawaii could keep this game within two touchdowns.
I like backing the Rainbow Warriors on the road down to +10.5. I don’t believe the gap between these two teams should be this large.
Pick: Hawaii +12.5 (Play to +10.5)
Hawaii vs Fresno State Start Time, TV Channel, How to Watch
| Location: | Valley Children's Stadium, Fresno, CA |
| Date: | Saturday, Nov. 2 |
| Kickoff Time: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | Spectrum PPV |
Hawaii vs Fresno State Betting Trends
- 47% of bets and 65% of the money are on Fresno State to cover the spread
- 72% of bets and 35% of the money are on the over
Betting trends via our live, updating NCAAF public betting & money percentages page.
Hawaii vs Fresno State Weather
