We have a nonconference clash on Saturday afternoon in Pullman, Washington, as the Washington State Cougars (5-1) prepare to take on the visiting Hawaii Rainbow Warriors (2-4, 0-2 Mountain West).
The Bows covered the number against Boise State last week but lost, 28-7.
These teams are going in the opposite direction. The Cougars could run the table and potentially steal a College Football Playoff bid — although it's unlikely — while the Warriors are 2-4 on the season, needing to win four of their final six games to make a bowl game.
Oddsmakers believe the Cougs will win comfortably, as they currently sit as 18.5-point favorites with the total set at 55.5.
Let's summarize my Hawaii vs. Washington State predictions and college football picks for Saturday, Oct. 19.
Hawaii vs Washington State Odds, Spread, Pick
| Hawaii Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+18.5 -112 | 55.5 -108o / -112u | +675 |
| Washington State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-18.5 -108 | 55.5 -108o / -112u | -1050 |
- Hawaii vs Washington State spread: Washington State -18.5
- Hawaii vs Washington State over/under: 55.5 points
- Hawaii vs Washington State moneyline: Washington State -1050
- Hawaii vs Washington State pick: Over 55.5
My Hawaii vs Washington State best bet is on the over, with the best line currently available at DraftKings, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Hawaii vs Washington State Preview
Hawaii Football
Head coach Timmy Chang's offense appeared to pick up some rhythm heading into the Boise State game, but unfortunately for Hawaii, it was contained all evening long.
The Bows scored only seven points against the Broncos, and their defense was gashed all night long.
It's tough to predict what type of effort we'll get from the Rainbow Warriors here, but I know the Cougars are an overrated football team. Not to discredit them entirely for their record, but we'll dig into that more later.
Hawaii quarterback Brayden Schager now draws a terrific matchup against a bad Cougs secondary. The Bows are a middling 69th in Pass Success Rate, but they're also top-50 in Offensive Line Yards, which will help when it comes to the run game.
Hawaii has struggled to sustain and finish drives, but this matchup could lift the offense. I don't expect the clock to run much with the Bows on offense, mainly because both teams love to run uptempo. Hawaii also loves to throw the ball and hands it off only 39% of the time.
There's also optimism that the defense will succeed in several key areas.
Defensively, Hawaii ranks 39th in Havoc and 38th in Rush Success Rate allowed, but its secondary has caused many problems.
The Cougs are a top-40 team in Pass Success Rate, and the Bows are below average in that defensive metric. However, Hawaii ranks 13th in PFF coverage.
It seems like an inflated number, but with their defense being a bit leaky, there's a much more robust approach than betting the Bows here.
Washington State Football
Before I get attacked by Cougars Nation on Twitter, I want to clarify that head coach Jake Dickert has done a terrific job. The Cougs lost quarterback Cam Ward to Miami in the offseason, and there was a lot of skepticism entering the season, especially with the Pac-12 wholly depleted.
But I'm still deciding whether or not to buy the Cougs quite yet. Let's take a look at who Washington State has faced thus far, and you can tell me if I'm overreacting or not:
- Portland State
- Texas Tech
- Washington
- San Jose State
- Boise State
- Fresno State
Texas Tech, Washington and Boise State are formidable foes, but are those two wins all that impressive? Boise destroyed this team, and Washington is trending down.
The Cougs have been a solid offensive team; there's no denying the metrics. They rank top-60 in the following offensive metrics:
- Rush Success Rate
- Pass Success Rate
- Finishing Drives
- Quality Drives
When they reach the 40-yard line, they're often coming away with touchdowns. Quarterback John Mateer has had a fine season, throwing for over 1,300 yards with 13 touchdown passes and four interceptions.
Wazzu ranks 19th in tempo, so expect the Cougs offense to have many possessions throughout the contest.
There are many advantages for Washington State in the offensive trench, so Mateer should have ample time to shred the Bows' secondary.
Defensively, there's a boatload of question marks. I'm lower on the Cougars than the market solely due to the defensive side of the ball.
They rank 35th in Defensive Line Yards, but they rank outside the top 80 in most other metrics. They're 25th in PFF Coverage grade, but they've allowed their opponents to score at will.
The Cougs should score enough to lift them in a big win, but I can't trust their defense to cover a large number.
Hawaii vs Washington State Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Hawaii and Washington State match up statistically:
Hawaii Offense vs. Washington State Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 65 | 74 | |
| Line Yards | 47 | 35 | |
| Pass Success | 69 | 92 | |
| Havoc | 95 | 105 | |
| Finishing Drives | 80 | 99 | |
| Quality Drives | 108 | 102 | |
Washington State Offense vs. Hawaii Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 57 | 38 | |
| Line Yards | 84 | 81 |  |
| Pass Success | 39 | 74 | |
| Havoc | 89 | 39 | |
| Finishing Drives | 59 | 80 | |
| Quality Drives | 37 | 74 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 58 | 133 |
| PFF Coverage | 13 | 25 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 102 | 104 |
| Middle 8 | 90 | 59 |
| Seconds per Play | 26.9 (57) | 24.3 (19) |
| Rush Rate | 39% (134) | 54% (71) |
Hawaii vs Washington State Prediction
I love the over in the matchup, as both offenses are in a position for great success.
Some underlying metrics suggest both secondaries are excellent in coverage, but I think they're going to get exposed by both quarterbacks here.
These offenses love to run tempo, so we should have many possessions for each unit. The Bows offense was shut down last week, but this matchup against the Cougs defense should be much easier.
The number is below a key number of 56, so I'll lock in the over before it increases. Expect big days from Schager and Mateer to provide most of the scoring.
Pick: Over 55.5 (Play to 56.5)
Hawaii vs Washington State Live: Start Time, TV Channel, How to Watch
| Location: | Martin Stadium, Pullman, WA |
| Date: | Saturday, Oct. 19 |
| Kickoff Time: | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | The CW |
Hawaii vs Washington State Betting Trends
- 93% of bets and 95% of the money are on Hawaii to cover the spread
- 99% of bets and 99% of the money on the moneyline are on Washington St to win outright
- 47% of bets and 62% of the money are on the over
Betting trends via our live, updating NCAAF public betting & money percentages page.
Hawaii vs Washington State Weather
