Iowa Hawkeyes (6-3, 4-2 Big Ten) fans are having a joyous season after finally being introduced to this brand-new concept known as offense. The Hawkeyes fired their "nepo-baby" and hired former Western Michigan head coach Tim Lester to turn the offense around.
The Hawkeyes rank fourth in the Big Ten, averaging 30.8 points per game. They have already scored 277 points this season through nine games after only scoring 216 points last season in 14 games.
The UCLA Bruins (3-5, 2-4) have not had the same welcome to the Big Ten conference as Oregon. The Bruins and new coach Deshaun Foster have struggled to a 3-5 season in their new home, although they are coming off road back-to-back wins.
Both teams enter Friday night off consecutive victories, but only one will be able to carry over momentum and make it three.
Iowa is a 6-point favorite on the spread with a 44.5-point over/under. The game kicks off at 9 p.m. ET and can be streamed live on FOX.
Read on for my Iowa vs. UCLA predictions and college football picks for their NCAAF Week 11 game.
Iowa vs UCLA Prediction and Picks
- Iowa vs. UCLA Pick: Iowa -6
My UCLA vs. Iowa best bet is on the Hawkeyes to cover as six-point favorites, with the best line available at bet365, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Iowa vs UCLA Odds, Spread, Line
| Iowa Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -105 | 44.5 -110 / -110 | -250 |
| UCLA Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -115 | 44.5 -110 / -110 | +210 |
- Iowa vs UCLA Point Spread: Iowa -6.5
- Iowa vs UCLA Over/Under: 44.5 Points
- Iowa vs UCLA Moneyline: Iowa ML -250 · UCLA ML +210
Iowa vs UCLA College Football Week 11 Preview
Iowa Hawkeyes Betting Preview: Offense? What's That?
The switch to Lester dramatically improved this offense, and the Hawkeyes' recent quarterback change made the improvement even more significant.
After Cade McNamara continued to demonstrate subpar play, the team finally switched to Northwestern transfer Brendan Sullivan, immediately scoring 40 points in back-to-back games.
Sullivan offers much more upside as a runner and now forms a dynamic backfield with star running back Kaleb Johnson. The Big Ten's leading rusher is averaging 142.1 yards per game. He is second in the nation in rushing, averaging 7.5 yards per carry.
Johnson has 19 rushing touchdowns on the year and has scored in every game. He has multiple scores in seven of his nine games and is in line for another monster game against this defense.
We have come to know the Hawkeyes for having a world-beater defense, but they have taken a slight step backward, especially against the run. However, they do not allow big plays and tighten up when opponents get into scoring range.
This defense is still well-coached under Phil Parker and does all the little things correctly. This team doesn’t make many mistakes and ranks in the top 10 in the country in coverage grade and tackling.
UCLA Bruins Betting Preview: Poor Two-Way Play
UCLA could have used a quarterback upgrade this offseason but stuck with the returning Ethan Garbers.
He continues to be a below-average quarterback. On the season, Garbers has thrown just 10 touchdowns with nine interceptions and is averaging less than 250 yards per game.
Despite returning both of their top receivers, the Bruins have gotten nothing out of Logan Loya and J. Michael Sturdivant. Tight end Moliki Matavao is the team’s leading receiver with just 38 yards per game.
The running game is even worse. It’s been no more than a brisk power walk.
TJ Harden leads the team with 226 total yards in eight games. He has one rushing score. As a team, the Bruins have just three rushing touchdowns all season and are averaging a measly 2.8 yards per carry. They rank dead last in the country with just 73.9 rushing yards per game. That is shocking, considering they promoted their running backs coach to head coach.
Speaking of bad, this defense is a mess.
They lost defensive coordinator D’Anton Lynn and a ton of NFL talent, especially up front. Last year’s stout unit has fallen to 122nd nationally. They rank outside the top 100 against the run, which could be a problem in this matchup.
Iowa vs UCLA Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Iowa and UCLA match up statistically:
Iowa Offense vs. UCLA Defense
 | Offense |  Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 42 | 111 | |
| Line Yards | 52 | 72 | |
| Pass Success | 104 | 87 | |
| Havoc | 45 | 76 | |
| Finishing Drives | 72 | 124 | |
| Quality Drives | 70 | 125 | |
UCLA Offense vs. Iowa Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 134 | 94 | |
| Line Yards | 133 | 73 | |
| Pass Success | 54 | 42 | |
| Havoc | 105 | 60 | |
| Finishing Drives | 119 | 37 | |
| Quality Drives | 60 | 13 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 8 | 54 |
| PFF Coverage | 5 | 71 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 17 | 66 |
| Middle 8 | 26 | 24 |
| Seconds per Play | 29.8 (123) | 30.7 (127) |
| Rush Rate | 64% (8) | 45% (122) |
Iowa vs UCLA Pick and Best Bet
Iowa has the best offense in this game by a wide margin. I have worked at Action Network for five years, and that is a sentence I have never written.
Iowa ranks in the top half of the Big 10 in yards per play and has looked even better with Sullivan under center. Iowa already has a top-10 rush rate, and Sullivan adds another element as a dual-threat quarterback.
Johnson is one of the best running backs in the country and should have another terrific day against this UCLA defense. As the Hawkeyes move the ball down the field, UCLA has been awful at preventing finishing drives, leading to Iowa turning long drives into touchdowns.
Iowa's biggest weakness this season has been defending the run. In each of their Big 10 losses, they allowed over 200 yards rushing. That shouldn’t be an issue in this one, though, as the Bruins have the worst rushing offense in the country. Their run game is non-existent.
That will leave things up to Garbers and this passing attack against a Hawkeyes secondary that ranks fifth in the country in Pro Footbal Focus's Coverage Grade. Iowa has a big advantage on both sides of the ball, and the Hawkeyes have an advantage in special teams as they always do.
Even traveling to the West Coast, Iowa has a big advantage in this matchup.
Pick: Iowa -6 (Play to -7)
Iowa vs UCLA Start Time, Channel, Streaming, How To Watch, Location
| Location: | Rose Bowl, Pasadena, CA |
| Date: | Friday, Nov. 8 |
| Kickoff Time: | 9 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | FOX |
Iowa vs UCLA will be played at the Rose Bowl in Pasadena, California, on Friday, Nov. 8, at 9 p.m. ET. You can stream the game live on FOX.
Iowa vs UCLA Betting Trends to Know
- 68% of bets and 52% of the money are on Iowa to cover the spread
- 88% of bets and 91% of the money on the moneyline are on Iowa to win outright
- 91% of bets and 91% of the money are on the over
Betting trends via our live, updating NCAAF public betting & money percentages page.
