The Kansas Jayhawks will look to pull off another win after beating the Illinois Fighting Illini, 34-23, last season when they travel to Champaign on Saturday.
Where does the betting value lie in this Big 12/Big Ten bout? Let's take a look at my Kansas vs. Illinois prediction.
College Football Prediction for Kansas vs Illinois
- Kansas vs Illinois Pick: Kansas -5
My Kansas-Illinois best bet is on the Jayhawks to cover the spread, with the best line currently available at ESPN Bet, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Kansas vs Illinois Odds for NCAAF Week 2
| Kansas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5.5 -108 | 58 -112o / -108u | -205 |
| Illinois Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 -112 | 58 -112o / -108u | +170 |
- Spread: Kansas -5.5 · Illinois +5.5
- Total: Over/Under 58 Points
- Moneyline: Kansas ML -205 · Illinois ML +170
Kansas Football vs Illinois Football Preview
Kansas Betting Preview: A Gashing Ground Game
Daniels is truly one of the most electric players in college football.
He played in only three games last season due to injury, but he averaged 8.7 yards per attempt and put up a PFF passing grade of 80.4 with 18 touchdowns and only four interceptions in 2022.
His best trait by far is throwing the deep ball. In 2022, he posted an 89.3 PFF passing grade on throws over 10 yards.
JD6 to Grimm is SO back pic.twitter.com/VnQOEsS0Cz
— Kansas Football (@KU_Football) August 30, 2024
He's also incredibly dangerous as a runner. He averaged 5.5 yards per carry in 2022 with 20 of his 79 carries going over 10 yards. Daniels started the entire game against Illinois last season, going 21-of-29 for 272 yards and two touchdowns.
Kansas also has top rusher Devin Neal back after an incredibly productive season in 2023. He averaged a whopping 6.3 yards per carry to go along with 16 touchdowns a season ago.
He had one of his best games last year against Illinois, racking up 120 yards on only 10 carries.
The biggest question mark during Leipold's tenure has been the defense.
Leipold's 2023 team was better than previous years thanks to an ability to limit explosive plays. However, teams still found a way to move the chains, as Kansas finished outside the top 100 in Defensive Success Rate.
The Jayhawks do return their top three tacklers from last season with the linebacking corps and secondary looking just as strong as last season.
However, they need to be better up front because Illinois averaged 4.1 Line Yards per rush against Kansas a season ago.
Illinois Betting Preview: Tough Departures
Bielema has some work to do on the offensive side of the ball for Illinois.
He consistently produces great offensive lines year after year, but Illinois lost three starters, two of which were the best offensive linemen last season.
The Illini are not an explosive offense and instead need to rely on getting three to four yards at a time to control the clock.
All of that starts up front in the running game, so with essentially a new offensive line and top back Reggie Love gone, that puts a lot of pressure on quarterback Luke Altmyer.
Altmyer was a very average passer last season, recording a PFF passing grade of just 67.8 while averaging just 6.9 yards per attempt.
Additionally, of the 200 quarterbacks in college football who attempted at least 50 passes last season, Altmyer finished 185th in EPA. He also lost his top two targets from last year, so if Illinois can't run the football, it's in a world of trouble in this game.
Defensively, Illinois lost a ton of talent up front, and there are real question marks as to whether or not it can stop Kansas' rushing attack. The Illini lose three starters on their defensive line with two of them being their best two players in Jer'Zhan Newton and Keith Randolph — both of whom are now in the NFL.
They'll be relying primarily on transfers, but Bielema didn't bring in any high-value players. Even with two NFL-caliber defensive linemen last season, Illinois ranked 110th in Defensive Line Yards, so Kansas should be able to run all over this defensive front.
How to Bet Kansas Jayhawks vs Illinois Fighting Illini Predictions
The biggest key for Illinois in this game is controlling the line of scrimmage and running the football effectively. However, with a lot of key players across the offensive line gone, as well as its starting running back in Love, I'm not sure the Illini can do that.
If they have to rely on Altmyer throwing the ball, it's going to go as poorly as it did last year. In this game last season, he went 19-of-28 for 202 yards and two interceptions — and that was with his two top wideouts.
Illinois is also very weak on the defensive line after losing three starters, including two to the NFL.
Kansas has one of the most dynamic rushing attacks behind Daniels and Neal. The Jayhawks averaged 6.0 yards per carry against the Illini last season even though they had Newton and Randolph.
Illinois also couldn't stop teams once they got past the 40-yard line, ranking 96th in Defensive Finishing Drives. Kansas, meanwhile, ranked 30th offensively in Finishing Drives with Jason Bean under center.
Kansas should run the ball with ease against this weak Illinois front, so give me the Jayhawks to -5.5.
Pick: Kansas -5
How to Watch Kansas Jayhawks vs Illinois Fighting Illini
| Location: | Memorial Stadium, Champaign, IL |
| Date: | Saturday, Sept. 7 |
| Kickoff Time: | 7 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | FS1 |
Kansas Jayhawks vs Illinois Fighting Illini Betting Trends
Kansas has taken 53% of the bets and landed 54% of the money.
The over has been the clear sharp side here, landing only 25% of the bets but generating a whopping 85% of the money.
NCAAF Week 2 Weather: Kansas vs Illinois
