Kansas State looks to make it four straight wins when it hosts its instate rival, Kansas, at Bill Snyder Family Stadium.
It's been a disaster of a season for Kansas, who came into it with such high aspirations. The Jayhawks did blow out Houston in their last game, but that win ended a five-game losing streak, so the Jayhawks now sit at 2-5 on the season. The schedule ahead doesn't get any easier, as this is the first game of three straight against top-25 opponents.
Kansas State is playing some really good football right now. The Wildcats went on the road in back-to-back weeks, beating Colorado and West Virginia. They're only one game behind Iowa State and BYU in the Big 12 standings, so this is a massive game for them, especially with a very winnable game against Houston on deck.
Kansas State is a 9.5-point favorite on the spread with a 55.5-point over/under. The game kicks off at 8 p.m. ET on Saturday, Oct. 26, and can be streamed live on ESPN2.
Read on for my Kansas vs Kansas State predictions and college football picks for Saturday.
Kansas vs Kansas State Odds, Spread
| Kansas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+10 -110 | 55.5 -110o / -110u | +275 |
| Kansas State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-10 -110 | 55.5 -110o / -110u | -350 |
- Kansas vs Kansas State spread: Kansas State -10
- Kansas vs Kansas State over/under: 55.5 points
- Kansas vs Kansas State moneyline: Kansas State -350
- Kansas vs Kansas State pick: Kansas State -9.5
My Kansas vs Kansas State best bet is on the Wildcats spread, with the best line currently available at FanDuel, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Kansas vs Kansas State Betting Preview
Turnovers are why Kansas is 2-5 right now, starting with Jalon Daniels. For all of his big-play ability, he's thrown eight interceptions and put the ball on the ground four times in their seven games.
He improved against Houston by not turning the ball over, and for Kansas to pull off an upset here, he can't give the ball away. The thing is, if he stopped turning it over at a high rate, the Jayhawks' offense would be pretty successful, as they showed against Houston last weekend.
Kansas' rushing attack is averaging 5.4 yards per carry because the offensive line has done a great job creating running lanes. It ranks second in the country in offensive line yards.
Devin Neal has excelled at running through those holes and not going down on first contact. He's averaging 4.06 yards per carry after contact and already has forced 29 missed tackles.
However, for Kansas to win this game, it will come down to Jalon Daniels throwing the ball. He has not been good this season, only having a 60.6 PFF Passing Grade, and the main reason for that is that he's one of the worst quarterbacks in college football when under pressure.
Kansas's defense has been well below average this season because it is really struggling to stop the run. It ranks 111th in EPA per Rush allowed, which is bad news going up against DJ Giddens.
Avery Johnson has had some pretty bad games this season, but he's been improving as the season progresses. Saturday in Morgantown was by far his best game of the season, as he went 19 for 29 passing with 298 yards and three touchdowns.
Over the last three weeks, he's averaged over nine yards per attempt because he's being more aggressive in throwing the ball deep, which will be key against Kansas' secondary, which ranks 81st nationally in Pass Explosiveness allowed.
Kansas State's offense is built on its rushing attack and has a good running back in DJ Giddens. He's carried the rock 127 times this season, averaging 6.6 yards per carry. The reason he's so good is because he's tough to bring down on first contact, averaging 4.7 yards per carry after contact while forcing 39 missed tackles.
There's no doubt that Kansas State can stop the run, which is significant in this game against Kansas. The Wildcats completely shut down West Virginia's rushing attack last weekend on the road, holding the Mountaineers to only 3.5 yards per carry. That is because Kansas State ranks fifth in the country in EPA per Rush Allowed, so they should be able to stop one of the nation's best rushing attacks.
The one problem with Kansas State defensively is that the secondary is not very good. The Wildcats did hold Garrett Greene under 100 yards passing last weekend, but for the season, they rank 91st in PFF's Coverage Grade.
Kansas vs Kansas State Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Kansas and Kansas State match up statistically:
Kansas Offense vs. Kansas State Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 15 | 4 | |
| Line Yards | 2 | 10 | |
| Pass Success | 30 | 77 | |
| Havoc | 28 | 69 | |
| Finishing Drives | 1 | 34 | |
| Quality Drives | 75 | 37 | |
Kansas State Offense vs. Kansas Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 25 | 112 | |
| Line Yards | 17 | 122 | |
| Pass Success | 39 | 55 | |
| Havoc | 16 | 24 | |
| Finishing Drives | 38 | 58 | |
| Quality Drives | 65 | 88 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 88 | 25 |
| PFF Coverage | 57 | 91 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 63 | 22 |
| Middle 8 | 113 | 83 |
| Seconds per Play | 29.1 (112) | 28.2 (91) |
| Rush Rate | 58% (35) | 57% (38) |
Kansas vs Kansas State Prediction
This is a tough matchup for Kansas because Kansas State can take away its one offensive strength: running the football.
Kansas' offensive line has dominated up front all season, but this will be the toughest test. If Kansas can't run the ball effectively, I have no faith in Jalon Daniels's ability to beat the Wildcats' defense with his arm.
Kansas State has a massive advantage on the ground, and DJ Giddens should have a huge game. The Jayhawks are getting dominated up front this season, ranking outside the top 120 in Defensive Line Yards and Stuff Rate.
I don't think the market is considering how much Johnson has improved over his past three games. He will also have a great matchup against Kansas' secondary, which has been very average this season despite not facing very many good quarterbacks.
I have Kansas State projected at -13.2 for this game, so I think there is some value on the Wildcats at -9.5
Pick: Kansas State -9.5
Kansas State vs Kansas Start Time, Channel, Streaming, How to Watch
| Location: | Bill Snyder Family Stadium, Manhattan, Kansas |
| Date: | Saturday, Oct. 26 |
| Kickoff Time: | 8 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPN2 |
Kansas State vs Kansas Weather
