The Kentucky Wildcats (3-3) take on the Florida Gators (3-3) at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium on Saturday, Oct. 19, at 7:45 p.m. ET on SEC Network.
The Wildcats are coming off a seven-point loss to Vanderbilt, 20-13, while the Gators are also coming off a loss against Tennessee, 23-17.
Kentucky enters this Week 8 contest as a 1.5-point favorite on the spread, while the over/under sits at 42.5
So, where's the betting value here? Let's dive into my Kentucky vs Florida predictions and my college football picks for Saturday.
Kentucky vs Florida Odds, Spread, Pick
| Kentucky Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2 -110 | 41.5 -110o / -110u | -130 |
| Florida Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2 -110 | 41.5 -110o / -110u | +110 |
- Kentucky vs Florida spread: Kentucky -2
- Kentucky vs Florida over/under: 41.5 points
- Kentucky vs Florida moneyline: Kentucky -130
- Kentucky vs Florida pick: Kentucky ML -122
Kentucky vs Florida Preview
Kentucky Football
This season has been a tale of two seasons for Kentucky’s football program. Kentucky has been downright dominant in its wins, blanking Southern Miss 31-0 in its opening contest and then blowing out Ohio 41-6.
The Wildcats' most impressive win came on the road against Ole Miss, where Brock Vandagriff threw for 243 yards en route to a three-point upset victory.
But it has not always been smooth sailing, as the Wildcats’ record sits at 3-3 on the year, and some of their losses have been downright baffling. Outside of a near-upset victory against Georgia, the 'Cats have been disastrous in their other two losses, including a 25-point blowout loss to South Carolina, in which they mustered just six points.
Last week, they lost at home to Vanderbilt, struggling to contain the dynamic Diego Pavia’s improvisational moments in key spots.
Kentucky’s best performances have come in response to their losses this year. After the South Carolina blowout, they took Georgia to the wire and pulled the upset over Ole Miss.
Brock Vandagriff has often struggled, but it hasn’t mattered much when the Wildcats get their stellar rushing attack going. On the season, Kentucky ranks top 15 nationally in Rush Success Rate. That’s a great matchup against a Florida defense that ranks outside the top 90 in EPA per Rush and Rush Success Rate allowed.
Defensively, Kentucky is at its best against opposing rushing attacks. Nobody has found success on the ground against Kentucky this year, and with a key injury to the Florida offense, it is hard to see that changing this week.
Florida Football
Florida’s usual starting quarterback, Graham Mertz, is out for the season following an ACL injury, ending Florida’s two-quarterback timeshare.
This may mean good things for the Gators in the long term, but DJ Lagway still has a long way to go.
Lagway was remarkable against Samford, finishing with 456 yards passing on 25 attempts.
But across five other matchups against higher-level competition, Lagway has completed just 29 passes on 47 attempts for 300 yards. But most importantly, he has thrown four interceptions to just two touchdowns.
Lagway stepped in on the road against Tennessee last week, and while he did give the Gators a chance to win, he also left some big plays out there. He completed nine of 17 passes for 98 yards, one touchdown and a pick.
Florida would be wise to lean into their run game to help keep the pressure off of Lagway’s shoulders here, but that will be easier said than done. The Gators' best running back has been Montrell Johnson, averaging 5.3 yards per carry on the year.
Johnson was stellar against Tennessee, running 12 times for 85 yards, but against the only other daunting front seven that Florida has faced this year, Johnson was shut down. In September, he ran seven times for -7 yards in Florida’s loss to Texas A&M.
This is the toughest defense Lagway and Johnson have faced yet this season, and it is asking a lot for a freshman quarterback to make enough winning plays against Kentucky’s defensive front. But that is precisely what Florida will need to have happen to have a chance to win here, as Kentucky’s defense is simply too good against the run.
Kentucky vs Florida Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Kentucky and Florida match up statistically:
Kentucky Offense vs. Florida Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 13 | 109 | |
| Line Yards | 61 | 84 | |
| Pass Success | 120 | 73 | |
| Havoc | 113 | 75 | |
| Finishing Drives | 77 | 52 | |
| Quality Drives | 36 | 80 | |
Florida Offense vs. Kentucky Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 37 | 42 | |
| Line Yards | 82 | 10 | |
| Pass Success | 27 | 67 | |
| Havoc | 90 | 16 | |
| Finishing Drives | 40 | 69 | |
| Quality Drives | 99 | 20 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 63 | 88 |
| PFF Coverage | 71 | 52 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 18 | 5 |
| Middle 8 | 24 | 68 |
| Seconds per Play | 29.5 (118) | 27.7 (75) |
| Rush Rate | 62% (28) | 53% (61) |
Kentucky vs Florida Prediction
This is an excellent buy-low spot on a dominant Kentucky defense.
The Wildcats have only allowed more than 20 points once this season and even held Georgia to Ole and Ole Miss to 17.
Florida head coach Billy Napier has been horrible against Kentucky, going 0-2 ATS in two contests and failing to cover by over 16 points per game.
Take the Wildcats on the moneyline, or bet the spread up to -2.5.
Pick: Kentucky ML (-122)
Kentucky vs Florida Start Time, Channel, Streaming, How to Watch
| Location: | Ben Hill Griffin Stadium, Gainesville, FL |
| Date: | Saturday, Oct. 19 |
| Kickoff Time: | 7:45 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | SEC Network |
Kentucky vs Florida will be played at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium in Gainseville, Florida, on Saturday, Oct. 19 at 7:45 p.m. ET. You can stream the game live on SEC Network.
Kentucky vs Florida Weather
