The Memphis Tigers (7-1) will travel to San Antonio to take on the UTSA Roadrunners (3-5) at 12 p.m. ET on Saturday, Nov. 2. This AAC matchup in the Alamodome will be broadcast on ESPN2.
Memphis is a 6-point favorite on the road in this matchup with a 61.5-point over/under.
Let’s take a look at my Memphis vs UTSA predictions and my college football picks for Saturday.
Memphis vs UTSA Prediction and Picks — November 2, 2024
- Memphis vs UTSA Pick: Memphis -7.5
My Memphis vs UTSA best bet is on Memphis to cover the spread. I am betting this at -7 and would play it at -9.5, with the best line currently available at Caesars, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Memphis vs UTSA Betting Odds, Spread, Game Preview
| Memphis Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7.5 -110 | 61 -110 / -110 | -275 |
| UTSA Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7.5 -110 | 61 -110 / -110 | +220 |
- Memphis vs UTSA Point Spread: Memphis -7.5 (-110) · UTSA +7.5 (-110)
- Memphis vs UTSA Total: Over/Under 61
- Memphis vs UTSA Moneyline: Memphis -275 · UTSA +220
Memphis vs UTSA Betting Preview
Memphis' Winning Probability: Anderson Jr Keeps Producing
The Memphis Tigers are 7-1 on the season and 3-1 in AAC play as they are looking towards a possible appearance in the AAC Championship game.
The Tigers have won four straight games since losing to Navy, but their SOS ranks just 119th in FBS, per CFB Reference.
Memphis ranks 76th in Success Rate this season but 36th in EPA Per Play, as the Tigers have generated big plays. They average the 15th most pass plays per game, ranking 68th in Pass Success Rate and 55th in EPA per Pass. Quarterback Seth Henigan is averaging 0.12 EPA per Dropback on the year, as he has been slightly above average.
The offensive line has been a strength of this team, ranking fourth nationally in Pro Football Focus's Pass-Blocking grades and 41st in PFF's Run-Blocking grades.
While Memphis primarily passes the ball, it has been explosive in the rushing game this season, ranking 63rd in Rush Success Rate and 25th in EPA per Rush. Mario Anderson Jr., who came over from South Carolina, leads the team in rushing with 780 yards and 13 touchdowns on 136 carries.
Defensively, the Tigers have been better than we have become accustomed to. They rank 36th nationally in Success Rate allowed and 37th in EPA Per Play allowed. They also rank 22nd in Pass Success Rate allowed and 41st in EPA per Pass allowed, as they haven’t allowed teams to move the ball against them through the air.
However, two of the better offenses they have faced, Navy and North Texas, scored 56 and 44 points on this defense, respectively.
Memphis ranks 18th in PFF's Run Defense grades but 89th in PFF's Tackling grades, as the Tigers have allowed some chunk gains on the ground. Overall, they rank 70th in Rush Success Rate allowed and 55th in EPA Per Rush allowed.
UTSA's Winning Probability: Offense Needs To Step Up
UTSA is experiencing a tumultuous year as it looks to replace longtime starting quarterback Frank Harris.
The Roadrunners are just 3-5 on the season and 1-3 in conference play. Their only wins are against FCS Houston Christian, Kennesaw State, and Florida Atlantic, none of which are impressive. They also have three losses to teams ranking outside of the top 90 in SP+ and rank 121st in SOS, per CFB Reference.
Despite the easy schedule, UTSA ranks 115th nationally in Success Rate and 109th in EPA per Play this season. They run the third-most passing plays per game in FBS but rank 107th in Pass Success Rate and 92nd in EPA per Pass.
On the ground, the Roadrunners rank 114th in Rush Success Rate and 122nd in EPA per Rush. UTSA is 77th in PFF's Run Blocking grades and 108th in PFF's Pass Blocking grades this season.
The defense has been this team's strong suit, as the 'Runners rank seventh nationally in Success Rate allowed and 29th in EPA per Play allowed. The UTSA run defense has been most productive, ranking second in Rush Success Rate allowed, ninth in PFF's Rush Defense grades, and fourth in EPA Per Rush Allowed.
They have not been as great against the pass, ranking 47th in Pass Success Rate allowed and 82nd in EPA per Pass allowed. The Roadrunners' defensive line ranks fourth in PFF's Pass Rush grades, but the secondary has struggled on the back end, ranking 118th in PFF's Coverage grades.
Memphis vs UTSA Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Memphis and UTSA match up statistically:
Memphis Offense vs. UTSA Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 56 | 3 | |
| Line Yards | 61 | 1 | |
| Pass Success | 91 | 107 | |
| Havoc | 16 | 2 | |
| Finishing Drives | 44 | 88 | |
| Quality Drives | 10 | 71 | |
UTSA Offense vs. Memphis Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 120 | 65 | |
| Line Yards | 84 | 15 | |
| Pass Success | 97 | 61 | |
| Havoc | 84 | 8 | |
| Finishing Drives | 122 | 73 | |
| Quality Drives | 123 | 24 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 89 | 84 |
| PFF Coverage | 62 | 121 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 52 | 88 |
| Middle 8 | 95 | 60 |
| Seconds per Play | 28.5 (98) | 23.7 (8) |
| Rush Rate | 47% (111) | 48% (104) |
Prediction for Memphis vs. UTSA
Memphis has had a solid start to the season but benefited from their easy schedule.
At some point, I think fading the Tigers team may be wise. But I don’t think this week is the right time for that.
UTSA has played an even more manageable schedule and has struggled against it. This UTSA team appears to be one of the worst in the conference, and I think Memphis will be able to handle the Roadrunners easily.
UTSA's main strength is its pass rush, which Memphis can neutralize with its great pass-blocking offensive line. Pass defense is the Roadrunners’ weakness, and how Memphis will want to attack offensively.
On the other hand, Memphis’ defense has performed well this season against an easy slate of opposing offenses. Luckily for them, the Tigers get another one this weekend and will likely be able to put up a similar performance.
Memphis is more than a touchdown better than UTSA, so I like taking the Tigers to cover this number here despite being on the road.
Pick: Memphis -7.5 (-110, Caesars) | Play to -9.5 (-110)
Memphis vs UTSA Start Time, Channel, Streaming, How to Watch
| Location: | Alamodome, San Antonio, Texas |
| Date: | Saturday, Nov. 2 |
| Kickoff Time: | 12 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPN2 |
Memphis vs UTSA will be played at the Alamodome in San Antonio, Texas, on Saturday, Nov. 2 at 12 p.m. ET. You can stream the game live on ESPN2.
UTSA vs Memphis Weather
