Jonathan Smith’s Michigan State program heads to Chestnut Hill to take on Bill O’Brien and his Boston College Eagles, and the home team is favored by 6.5 points.
There are some eerie similarities in this matchup — both teams have first-year head coaches and both teams already have surprising road wins against conference opponents under their belt. Both teams have gunslinger quarterbacks, who are just as apt to throw an easy interception up for grabs as they are to convert an astonishing 3rd and a mile.
Michigan State’s roster was raided harder in the coaching change BC’s. Their audacious quarterback – Aidan Chiles – is still green compared to Boston College’s veteran Thomas Castellanos. This is also the Red Bandana Game for the Eagles.
Add this all up, and one of the Spartans is getting almost a props touchdown in The Heights. Let's get to my Michigan State vs Boston College prediction.
Michigan State vs Boston College Odds, Pick
| Michigan St Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4.5 -105 | 45.5 -105o / -115u | +165 |
| Boston Col Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4.5 -115 | 45.5 -105o / -115u | -200 |
Pick: Boston College -6.5
Michigan State vs Boston College Preview
Smith arrived after a successful run at his alma mater, Oregon State, bringing Chiles with him to Michigan State.
In Corvallis, Smith built a buzzsaw of a running game, something that will fit in nicely in the physical Big Ten conference. While his running backs have put up some solid box score totals thanks to some soft opposition, the bones of a quality rush attack are not yet in place here.
The Spartans are in the bottom 20th percentile in FBS in both Line Yards and Stuff Rate allowed. UMass transfer Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams and Nate Carter will split reps at the running back position. They will face a veteran BC defensive front that is currently fifth in the nation in rushing success rate allowed.
The real magic is with Chiles. The blue-chip prospect got his feet with Smith last year with the Beavers, spelling DJ Uiagalelei on occasion. Now, he has a full-time starting gig, and the results are strikes and gutters. He has made five big-time throws to seven turnover-worthy plays on the season so far; he essentially single-handedly won the game for the Spartans against Maryland after he almost gave it away first with three interceptions.
All of Chiles’ untrustworthiness and the rebuild in the trenches means that the Spartans rank 97th in Havoc surrendered.
The defense is the more steady of the two units, checking in at 17th in defensive SP+. They are a poor fit to defend what the Eagles do well — big passing attack — plays directly into their weaknesses.
Meanwhile, One of Bill O’Brien’s main tasks in taking over the BC team was to reign in the wild man Thomas Castellanos. The “We Have Kyler Murray At Home” quarterback was often a danger to his team last year.
O’Brien’s quarterback guru reputation is showing early returns, as Castellanos has flipped his 17 to 24 big-time throw to turnover-worthy play ratio last year to 6 to 2 this year. His BC offense likes to chip away on the ground on 1st or 2nd downs, then use their explosive passing offense to convert on third down.
The Eagles pass attack is 94th percentile for yards per dropback, and 99th percentile for pass explosives. They do an incredible job of moving the chains, ranking 89th in late downs success rate. These are all weaknesses of the Spartans. Of these categories, Michigan State’s defense is in the 16th percentile, 29th percentile, and 31st percentile, respectively.
Michigan State vs Boston College Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Boston College and Michigan State match up statistically:
Michigan State Offense vs. Boston College Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 75 | 5 | |
| Line Yards | 115 | 25 | |
| Pass Success | 85 | 55 | |
| Havoc | 97 | 93 |  |
| Finishing Drives | 108 | 41 | |
| Quality Drives | 54 | 55 | |
Boston College Offense vs. Michigan State Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 95 | 13 | |
| Line Yards | 68 | 18 | |
| Pass Success | 41 | 46 | |
| Havoc | 87 | 33 | |
| Finishing Drives | 19 | 8 | |
| Quality Drives | 33 | 24 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 6 | 17 |
| PFF Coverage | 71 | 47 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 37 | 110 |
| Middle 8 | 41 | 75 |
| Seconds per Play | 28.5 (89) | 31.0 (121) |
| Rush Rate | 53% (52) | 69% (10) |
Michigan State vs Boston College Prediction
Boston College is running a better, more experienced version of what Michigan State is this year. Many believe Smith will eventually develop the same ferocious rushing attack and develop Chiles during his time in East Lansing, but that is not installed yet.
O’Brien’s veteran roster has a strong defensive identity and a veteran quarterback who is coming into his own under O’Brien’s tutelage. They attack Michigan State exactly where the Spartans are weakest.
The Eagles also have a considerable advantage in points per opportunity. In our accounting, BC’s offense is 19th in the country in Finishing Drives, and Michigan State is 108th. Parker Fleming’s accounting is even more damning: Boston College is second in the country in points per quality drive; MSU is 114th.
The Spartans bring field goals to a touchdown fight. Throw in that this is the Red Bandana Game for Boston College, and I like the Eagles to cover the number in front of a fired-up home crowd.
Pick: Boston College -6.5 (Play to 7.5)
How to Watch Michigan State vs Boston College
| Location: | Alumni Stadium, Chestnut Hill, MA |
| Date: | Saturday, Sept. 21 |
| Kickoff Time: | 8 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ACC Network |
Michigan State vs Boston College Betting Trends
- 56% of the tickets generated and 75% of the money is targeted for Boston College to cover.
- 75% of the bets and 79% of the money is aimed for the Over.
Michigan State vs Boston College Weather
