Oregon looks to remain perfect before its huge game against Ohio State when the Ducks host Michigan State on Friday.
Michigan State is rebuilding under Jonathan Smith, who knows Oregon very well, given he coached at Oregon State for a number of years.
The Spartans weren't competitive against Ohio State last weekend, losing 38-7 at home, and their offense needs a lot of work.
Oregon is undefeated, but it hasn't looked like the dominant team it was supposed to be. It needed to come from behind in the fourth quarter to beat Boise State, and in its first game of the year, it only beat Idaho by 10.
However, it dominated both Oregon State and UCLA in the last two weeks, so it seems to be on the right track heading into this game.
So, where does the betting value lie in this Friday night Big Ten battle? Let's take a look at my Michigan State vs. Oregon predictions and college football picks for Friday, Oct. 4.
Michigan State vs Oregon Odds, Pick
| Michigan State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+23.5 -110 | 51.5 -115o / -105u | +1200 |
| Oregon Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-23.5 -110 | 51.5 -115o / -105u | -2400 |
- Michigan State vs Oregon spread: Oregon -23.5
- Michigan State vs Oregon over/under: 52.5 points
- Michigan State vs Oregon moneyline: Oregon ML -2400
- Michigan State vs. Oregon pick: Oregon -23.5
Michigan State Football vs Oregon Football Preview
Michigan State Football
Michigan State quarterback Aidan Chiles has struggled to begin the season, with a paltry 67.7 PFF Passing Grade.
He loves to throw deep, averaging 7.8 yards per attempt at a 12.8 average depth of target, two of the nation's highest marks. Unfortunately, that's worked against him, as consistently throwing deep has led to nine interceptions on 14 turnover-worthy plays through just five games.
Oregon ranks fourth nationally in Havoc generated, so don't be surprised if we see multiple Spartan turnovers on Friday.
Michigan State also can't run the ball, averaging 3.7 yards per carry while ranking 81st nationally in Rush Success Rate. The offensive line hasn't opened lanes, ranking 72nd in PFF's Run Blocking grades and 121st in Line Yards.
The Spartans likely struggle to move the ball in Eugene.
Michigan State struggled against the first elite offense they have faced this season. The Spartans allowed Ohio State to run the ball at will, as the Buckeyes averaged 5.3 yards per carry.
Sparty has been solid against the run on the year, ranking top-30 nationally in Rush Success Rate allowed.
Unfortunately, their secondary has played poorly, ranking 89th in EPA per Pass allowed and 85th in Pass Explosiveness allowed. Dillon Gabriel should carve the Spartans up.
Oregon Football
Dillon Gabriel was not at his best in Oregon's first two games, but he's been perfect over the past two road games.
He's posted a 90 PFF Passing Grade on an 80.9% completion rate with nine touchdowns to just one pick. He's completing almost 60% of his passes over 10 air yards, mainly thanks to an elite receiving corps generating plenty of separation.
Tez Johnson quickly became Gabriel's favorite target after compiling back-to-back 100-yard games against Oregon State and UCLA. He works mainly out of the slot and was among college football's best receivers last season, posting an 89.3 PFF Receiving grade while averaging 3.5 yards per route run.
Ohio State's top two receivers averaged over 13 yards per reception against Michigan State last Saturday, and Oregon's passing attack should be similarly effective this Friday.
Dan Lanning is a great defensive coach, and he's built a talented group this year. Nine starters from last year's stop unit returned in the offseason.
The Ducks are excellent at forcing turnovers and TFLs (ranking fourth in Havoc), and they're fundamentally sound (ranking sixth in PFF's Tackling grades).
Oregon must stop the run and force Chiles to throw against its elite secondary. The Ducks have been closer to average against the run this year, but Sparty won't be the type of rushing attack that can exploit that, ranking 105th in EPA per Rush.
Oregon vs Michigan State Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Oregon and Michigan State match up statistically:
Michigan State Offense vs. Oregon Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 81 | 26 | |
| Line Yards | 121 | 65 | |
| Pass Success | 86 | 12 | |
| Havoc | 119 | 4 | |
| Finishing Drives | 126 | 111 | |
| Quality Drives | 58 | 32 | |
Oregon Offense vs. Michigan State Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 35 | 18 | |
| Line Yards | 37 | 30 | |
| Pass Success | 17 | 89 | |
| Havoc | 47 | 70 | |
| Finishing Drives | 72 | 20 | |
| Quality Drives | 41 | 44 |  |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 54 | 6 |
| PFF Coverage | 89 | 4 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 15 | 25 |
| Middle 8 | 87 | 114 |
| Seconds per Play | 28.7 (95) | 27.6 (72) |
| Rush Rate | 51% (74) | 50% (85) |
How to Bet My Michigan State vs Oregon Pick
I don't see how Michigan State will move the ball effectively. The Spartans' game plan should be running the ball, but if that doesn't work, Chiles will have to chuck the ball deep and into traffic.
Conversely, Oregon should throw the ball over all over Michigan State's secondary. The Spartans have yet to face an elite passer, and Gabriel fits that bill.
Although he's only been Oregon's coach for a little over two seasons, Dan Lanning has been very good against the spread as a favorite.
Even though this is a look-ahead spot, it's a really good matchup for the Ducks. I have Oregon projected at -27.1.
Pick: Oregon -23.5
How to Watch Michigan State vs Oregon
| Location: | Autzen Stadium, Eugene, OR |
| Date: | Friday, Oct. 4 |
| Kickoff Time: | 9 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | FOX |
Michigan State vs Oregon Betting Trends
- Oregon is 4-0 SU and 1-3 ATS
- Michigan State is 3-2 SU but 2-3 ATS
- Michigan State games are 4-1 to the Under
Oregon vs Michigan State Weather
