The Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (2-5, 1-2 CUSA) and Jacksonville State Gamecocks (3-3, 2-0) meet at AmFirst Stadium on Wednesday night for Conference USA midweek action. Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN2.
The Gamecocks come into this matchup fresh from their bye, riding a 3-game winning streak that all included dominant showings.
Meanwhile, the Blue Raiders got back on track with a 14-5 conference win over Kennesaw State last week, stopping a run of 5 straight losses.
This feels like a huge mismatch on paper, and I believe it plays out that way.
Let’s preview the action, as I make my Middle Tennessee vs. Jacksonville State predictions and college football picks for Wednesday, October 23.
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders vs Jacksonville State Gamecocks Prediction & Pick
- Middle Tennessee vs. Jacksonville State Pick: Jacksonville State Team Total Over 41.5
My Jacksonville State vs. Middle Tennessee best bet is on the Gamecocks to go over their team total, with the best line currently available at DraftKings, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Middle Tennessee vs Jacksonville State Odds, Spread, Betting Lines
| Middle Tennessee Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+20.5 -112 | 64 -108o / -113u | +850 |
| Jacksonville State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-20.5 -113 | 64 -108o / -113u | -1667 |
- Middle Tennessee vs Jacksonville State Spread: Jacksonville State -20.5 (-113)
- Middle Tennessee vs Jacksonville State Over/Under: 64
- Middle Tennessee vs Jacksonville State Moneyline: Middle Tennessee ML +850 · Jacksonville State ML -1667
Middle Tennessee Football vs Jacksonville State Football Preview
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders
After a season off from coaching, Derek Mason decided to make his return on the sidelines by taking over the head role at Middle Tennessee.
Mason should be familiar with the area after seven seasons at Vanderbilt, which is just 36 miles from Murfreesboro. During his time in Nashville, he led the Commodores to a pair of bowl games.
Now, he's tasked with turning around this Middle Tennessee program.
Luckily for Mason, he has a solid quarterback to lean on in Nicholas Vattiato. The signal-caller ranks in the top 10 in the Group of Five with 251.4 passing yards per game, and he's 25th nationally among all quarterbacks in completions per game.
On the defensive side of the ball, MTSU’s unit had its best showing last week in the win over Kennesaw State. The Blue Raiders held KSU out of the end zone, and they’ll need another big showing here.
Jacksonville State Gamecocks
Jacksonville State had a memorable season in the program’s first year in the FBS in 2023. Unfortunately for JSU, the momentum didn’t carry over into this campaign, leading to a slow start.
To open 2024, the Gamecocks lost their first three games against Coastal Carolina, Louisville and Eastern Michigan. However, the schedule has lightened up over the last two weeks, and head coach Rich Rodriguez’s team has dominated.
Jacksonville State scored a combined 161 points in the victories over Southern Miss, Kennesaw State and New Mexico State.
The plan for attack in those wins was spearheaded by the ground game, and I don’t see that changing here.
When beating the Golden Eagles, the Gamecocks rushed for 273 yards and five touchdowns. They followed that up with 384 yards on 7.2 yards per carry and another eight scores on the ground against the Owls.
I expect a veteran coach like Rodriguez to build on this success as his team gets into conference play, and I believe this still should be a top program in Conference USA.
Jacksonville State vs Middle Tennessee Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Jacksonville State and Middle Tennessee match up statistically:
Middle Tennessee Offense vs. Jacksonville State Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 109 | 124 | |
| Line Yards | 121 | 90 | |
| Pass Success | 103 | 51 | |
| Havoc | 120 | 62 | |
| Finishing Drives | 132 | 104 | |
| Quality Drives | 105 | 96 | |
Jacksonville State Offense vs. Middle Tennessee Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 45 | 99 | |
| Line Yards | 45 | 44 |  |
| Pass Success | 49 | 132 | |
| Havoc | 50 | 117 | |
| Finishing Drives | 11 | 120 | |
| Quality Drives | 40 | 121 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 71 | 12 |
| PFF Coverage | 122 | 65 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 124 | 108 |
| Middle 8 | 130 | 22 |
| Seconds per Play | 28.5 (97) | 23.6 (10) |
| Rush Rate | 45% (125) | 62% (12) |
How to Bet My Middle Tennessee vs Jacksonville State Pick
I’m looking to back the home team in this mismatch, but I want to find a better option than the large spread. This leads me to the team total, which I think is the best route to take.
With that said, my best bet is for Jacksonville State to fly over its team total of 41.5 at -130 odds at DraftKings. I would play this number up to -145 before shifting to 42.5 at -120 or better.
Yes, the Blue Raiders put together a great defensive performance last week. However, I think you have to credit that to the fact that they were facing Kennesaw State.
The same cann't be said when MTSU has faced competent opponents. In fact, Middle Tennessee has allowed four of its previous five FBS foes to top this same team total.
It's one thing to get gashed against solid offenses like Ole Miss and Western Kentucky. The alarming ones are when you see that Duke and Louisiana Tech also topped this number.
The other thing that helps this bet is the fact that Jacksonville State doesn't lay off the gas under Rodriguez. The Gamecocks rolled up 23 points in the second half in their blowout win over Southern Miss.
They followed that up by lighting up the scoreboard for 21 points in the fourth quarter against Kennesaw State and 21 after halftime against New Mexico State.
All of those opponents are similar in power rating, and I just believe Jacksonville State will be too much here.
Give me the Gamecocks to continue to fly on offense with a big showing here.
Pick: Jacksonville State Team Total Over 41.5 (Play to 42.5)
Middle Tennessee vs Jacksonville State Start Time, TV Channel, How to Watch
| Location: | AmFirst Stadium, Jacksonville, AL |
| Date: | Wednesday, Oct. 23 |
| Kickoff Time: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPN2 |
The Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders take on the Jacksonville State Gamecocks on Wednesday, Oct. 23 in Jacksonville, Alabama, at 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN2.
College Football Betting Trends for Middle Tennessee vs Jacksonville State
- Middle Tennessee has taken 71% of the bets and landed 79% of the money.
- The under has seen 71% of the tickets and 84% of the cash.
Middle Tennessee vs Jacksonville State Weather
