The No. 24 Illinois Fighting Illini (6-2) take on the Minnesota Golden Gophers (5-3) in Champaign, Illinois, on Saturday, Nov. 2, at 12 p.m. ET on FS1.
The Illini are looking to bounce back after getting torched by the Oregon Ducks last week, while the Golden Gophers are trending in the opposite direction, winning their past three games in a row.
Minnesota can clinch a bowl game with a win here, while Illinois is looking to get the train back on the tracks after their embarrassing performance last week.
Minnesota enters this Week 10 contest as a 3-point favorite on the spread, while the over/under sits at 45.5
So, where's the betting value here? Let's dive into my Illinois vs Minnesota predictions and my college football picks for Saturday.
Minnesota vs Illinois Odds
| Minnesota Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -110 | 46.5 -110 / -110 | -155 |
| Illinois Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -110 | 46.5 -110 / -110 | +130 |
- Minnesota vs Illinois Point Spread: Minnesota -3 (-110) · Illinois +3 (-110)
- Minnesota vs Illinois Total: Over/Under 46.5
- Minnesota vs Illinois Moneyline: Minnesota -155 · Illinois +130
Minnesota vs Illinois Picks and Predictions
Prediction
My Minnesota vs Illinois best bet is on the Illini to cover as home 'dogs, with the best line available at bet365 Sportsbook.
Spread
Illinois +3
Over/Under
PASS
Moneyline
PASS
Minnesota Golden Gophers vs Illinois Fighting Illini College Football Preview
Minnesota Golden Gophers Betting Preview: Trusting Brosmer
It has been an up-and-down season for PJ Fleck's Gophers.
They opened the season with a heartbreaking loss to a horrid North Carolina group that needed plenty of bad special teams luck to secure their win.
When things go well for Minnesota, they go very well — as evidenced by their 75-0 combined wins in Weeks 2 and 3 over Rhode Island and Nevada, and now this three-game winning streak.
It is fair to question how much the schedule is responsible for the turnaround here, as Minnesota got its marquee win over a USC team that was once ranked 11th nationally but has now fallen to 13th place in the Big Ten alone.
Following the USC win, Minnesota beat UCLA and Maryland back-to-back. There's no question the Gophers are playing good ball, but this game will be their first true test since their back-to-back losses against Iowa and Michigan.
Part of the turnaround has been the emergence of quarterback Max Brosmer. Brosmer has finally earned Fleck's trust, as he has averaged 33.2 attempts per game in their last five contests, eight throws more per game than he averaged over the first three games of the year.
Brosmer has been turnover-prone against good defenses, throwing three interceptions in the losses to Iowa and Michigan. But he has also been flawless in their most recent game, throwing for four touchdowns and zero picks against Maryland.
Brosmer and the Minnesota receivers make up the offense with the 21st-ranked Pass Success Rate in college football. But the Gophers will be tested against Illinios' opportunistic defense.
Illinois Fighting Illini Betting Preview: Smart, Complementary Football
Illinois has been very good at creating turnovers this season.
The Illinois defense has snagged nine interceptions, forced 10 fumbles and recovered five. Bret Bielema's squad plays smart, complementary football. Quarterback Luke Altmyer typically manages the game flawlessly against average defenses and allows his defense to force negative plays from the opposing offense.
That formula works against middle-of-the-pack teams, but it has let Illinois down in big games against Penn State and Oregon.
But despite losing contests with two of the top four teams in college football, Illinois has been dominant against teams that fall short of elite. The Illini have three wins over ranked opponents, knocking off Kansas, Nebraska and Michigan (two of the three at home in Champaign).
On the season, Illinois has a +6 turnover margin (even after turning it over twice last week against Oregon). The Illini are a whopping 5-0 when they don't turn the ball over twice in a game.
Illinois' one significant weakness is its run defense, which ranks 128th in Rush Success Rate allowed. Minnesota should have the advantage on the ground, but it is fair to wonder how much the Gophers will want to run the ball given how much they have leaned into the pass in recent weeks.
Minnesota vs Illinois Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Minnesota and Illinois match up statistically:
Minnesota Offense vs. Illinois Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 55 | 128 | |
| Line Yards | 119 | 132 | |
| Pass Success | 21 | 70 | |
| Havoc | 62 | 111 | |
| Finishing Drives | 27 | 31 |  |
| Quality Drives | 40 | 53 | |
Illinois Offense vs. Minnesota Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 83 | 41 | |
| Line Yards | 57 | 45 | |
| Pass Success | 40 | 19 | |
| Havoc | 119 | 24 | |
| Finishing Drives | 67 | 41 | |
| Quality Drives | 22 | 29 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 63 | 22 |
| PFF Coverage | 10 | 46 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 110 | 4 |
| Middle 8 | 29 | 42 |
| Seconds per Play | 30.1 (124) | 28.6 (101) |
| Rush Rate | 49% (100) | 56% (58) |
How To Make College Football Picks For My Minnesota vs Illinois Prediction
Given Minnesota's propensity to air it out lately, the Illinois defense should be excited about this bounce-back opportunity.
Brosmer has been turnover-prone in his biggest games, and the Illini have come up with big turnovers time after time in games like this.
Minnesota doesn't have the offensive weapons to overwhelm the weak Illinois run defense, which plays right into the Illini's hands.
Altmyer should respond after last week's debacle, and the Illini should get the cover at home.
Pick: Illinois +3 (-110, bet365)
Minnesota vs Illinois Start Time, Channel, Streaming, How to Watch
| Location: | Memorial Stadium, Champaign, Illinois |
| Date: | Saturday, Nov. 2 |
| Kickoff Time: | 12 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | FS1 |
Minnesota vs Illinois will be played at Memorial Stadium in Champaign, Illinois, on Saturday, Nov. 2 at 12 p.m. ET. You can stream the game live on Fox Sports 1.
