The Mississippi State Bulldogs take on the Missouri Tigers in Columbia, Missouri, on Saturday, Nov. 15. Kickoff is set for 7:45 p.m. EST on SEC Network.
Missouri is favored by 7 points on the spread with a moneyline of -270. Mississippi State, meanwhile, enters as a +7 underdog and is +220 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 51.5 total points.
Here’s my Mississippi State vs. Missouri prediction and college football picks for Saturday, November 15.
Mississippi State vs Missouri Prediction, Picks
- Mississippi State vs. Missouri Pick: Missouri Team Total Over 29.5
My Missouri vs. Mississippi State best bet is on the Tigers to go over their team total. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Mississippi State vs Missouri Odds, Line, Spread
| Mississippi State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 +100 | 51.5 -110o / -110u | +210 |
| Missouri Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -122 | 51.5 -110o / -110u | -255 |
- Mississippi State vs Missouri Spread: Missouri -6.5, Mississippi State +6.5
- Mississippi State vs Missouri Over/Under: 51.5
- Mississippi State vs Missouri Moneyline: Mississippi State ML +210, Missouri ML -255
Mississippi State vs Missouri NCAAF Week 12 Picks
When you break this matchup down possession by possession rather than surface-level stats, it becomes even more apparent that Missouri is built to score consistently against this Mississippi State defense, and the team total over becomes one of the best betting approaches for the matchup.
Missouri quietly profiles as one of the most efficient, balanced and sustainable offensive units in the SEC.
I realize quarterback Beau Pribula is doubtful, but this is more about how bad the Bulldogs defense has been all season long. We also shouldn't underestimate the rushing attack led by sensational running back Ahmad Hardy.
The numbers show it: they rank 13th nationally in EPA/Rush, 24th in early downs EPA/Play and 24th in available yards gained, which means more than half of all possible yards in a drive are being gained.
That's the kind of consistency that translates directly into scoring.
This is precisely the type of offense that historically gives Mississippi State serious problems, because MSU is structurally weak in every area Missouri leverages as a strength.
The Bulldogs sit outside the top 110 in EPA/Rush allowed and 104th in early downs EPA/Play allowed, which is a massive red flag when facing a team that wants to establish the run, set up RPOs and avoid long-yardage passing situations.
Missouri thrives in those early-down windows, generating positive EPA and Mississippi State doesn’t have the personnel or the down-to-down discipline to disrupt those sequences. And Missouri’s edge doesn’t stop there, as their offense ranks 37th nationally in average third-down distance, meaning they’re living in 3rd-and-manageable territory.
At the same time, Mississippi State’s defense sits 76th in third-down success rate allowed. That combination alone creates an extremely high probability of drive-sustainability.
But the fundamental mismatch comes when you zoom out to the full game script.
Mississippi State’s offense is likely to struggle moving the ball on Missouri’s defense, which ranks top-25 in available yards allowed and top-15 in early downs EPA/Play allowed.
MSU’s offense generates just 43.2% of available yards and sits outside the top 70 in average third-down distance, meaning it consistently puts itself behind schedule. That translates into short fields for Missouri, both off punts and failed drives.
Mississippi State vs Missouri Pick, Best Bets
Give this Missouri offense just one or two drives starting outside their own 35, and the team total gets dramatically easier to clear.
Even if the game starts slowly, the matchup fundamentally favors Missouri sustaining more drives, generating more red-zone trips and producing more scoring opportunities as the game wears on.
And while Mississippi State’s pass defense is respectable in terms of raw EPA, it folds once the opponent establishes run efficiency, which Missouri absolutely should.
This is precisely the blueprint Missouri should follow to put up points.
I would much rather target its team total to fade the Bulldogs defense instead of the overall total at 51.5
Pick: Missouri Team Total Over 29.5 (Play to 30.5)
