After a hard-fought victory in the Southwest Classic over Arkansas, Mike Elko said it's "one step at a time" for his Texas A&M Aggies (4-1, 2-0 SEC).
A heartbreaking loss to Notre Dame in the season opener is the only blemish for the head coach in his first year in College Station.
Missouri (4-0, 1-0 SEC) will also look to stay undefeated after posting a narrow victory against Vanderbilt before entering a bye week. The Tigers are 3-1 against the spread after bye weeks since head coach Eliah Drinkwitz arrived in Columbia before the 2020 season.
With Alabama on the schedule for Missouri and Texas on tap for Texas A&M, Week 6 will serve as a crucial game for the Aggies and Tigers with respect to the College Football Playoff.
So, let's get to my Missouri vs. Texas A&M predictions and college football picks for Saturday, Oct. 5.
Missouri vs. Texas A&M Odds, Line, Spread
| Missouri Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -108 | 47 -115o / -105u | +114 |
| Texas A&M Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -112 | 47 -115o / -105u | -135 |
Missouri Tigers vs. Texas A&M Aggies Pick
- Missouri vs. Texas A&M Prediction: Texas A&M ML -135
I'm betting Texas A&M on the moneyline and backing the Aggies as my Texas A&M vs. Missouri best bet.
Spread
While I am taking Texas A&M to beat Missouri, I'm not going to lay the 2.5 points.
Over/Under
I don't see value on the over/under for this SEC showdown.
Moneyline
My best bet for Missouri vs. Texas A&M is to take the Aggies on the moneyline at -135 or better.
Prediction
I'm betting the Texas A&M Aggies to beat the Missouri Tigers at home on the moneyline.
How to Watch Missouri vs. Texas A&M
| Location: | Kyle Field, College Station, TX |
| Date: | Saturday, Oct. 5 |
| Kickoff Time: | 12 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ABC |
The Missouri vs. Texas A&M college football game will take place on Saturday, Oct. 5 at 12 p.m. ET on ABC.
Missouri Tigers Preview
Missouri lacks a trusted data point in the numbers after starting the season with four consecutive victories. The Tigers enter College Station with a strength of schedule ranked 120th, a stark contrast to the Aggies, who slip inside the top 30.
Two specific areas have plagued Missouri — the ability to create explosive plays and finish drives.
There's good and bad with quarterback Brady Cook, who has committed just one turnover-worthy play this season but has completed only three passes over 20 yards.
Missouri is 129th in offensive pass explosives, coinciding with slot Luther Burden's target share drop from 34.1% to 17.8%.
Luther Burden III for VI#Mizzou | #RatedProspect
— The Draft Network (@TheDraftNetwork) September 21, 2024
The Tigers have been excellent defensively under new coordinator Corey Batoon. The 3-3-5 personnel runs 67% of its coverage snaps in zone, a split between Cover 1 and Cover 3.
Missouri has produced numbers across the board with the exception of one area, a PFF rank of 64th in coverage. Early downs have provided the best window for opponents to create explosives, specifically against the rush.
Texas A&M Aggies
Texas A&M is a battle-tested team heading into Week 6 of the season, the first SEC contest to be played at Kyle Field.
The Aggies have been fortunate to this point, posting coin-flip numbers in post-game win expectancies against Florida and Bowling Green.
The Texas A&M defense took over the game against Arkansas after the first quarter, allowing just three points in the final 45 minutes of play. The Havoc-minded defense took over the Razorbacks offensive line, producing 10 tackles for loss and eight quarterback hurries.
Nic Scourton, a prize possession from the transfer portal, played the edge position like a man possessed against Arkansas.
Texas A&M DE Nic Scourton was my top-ranked EDGE coming out of summer scouting, and he showed why on Saturday…
He finished the win over Arkansas with:
2 sacks | 4 TFLs | 1 FF | 1 PD🎥: Here’s a few of the best plays he made 👇#GigEm#CollegeFootball#NFLDraftpic.twitter.com/BOkIAsdA4S
— The Draft Room (@TheDraftRoomNFL) September 30, 2024
The Aggies defense has been fantastic against the opposing rush, ranking top 15 nationally in Stuff Rate and Line Yards.
A leaky secondary has given Texas A&M the most issues through five games, ranking 94th in coverage with a mid-FBS number in creating contested catches. The Aggies have given up a play of 40 or more yards three times in the past two games.
There is positive news on the offensive side of the ball, as backup freshman quarterback Marcel Reed has led one of the most disciplined offenses in the nation. The RPO package is complemented with a heavy rush tendency on 67% of snaps.
Running back Le'Veon Moss continues to be the workhorse of the offense, averaging 4.6 yards after first contact. The ground-and-pound game plan could change for Missouri, as original starting quarterback Connor Weigman is listed as a game-time decision.
Texas A&M vs. Missouri Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Texas A&M and Missouri match up statistically:
Missouri Offense vs. Texas A&M Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 18 | 50 | |
| Line Yards | 36 | 12 | |
| Pass Success | 23 | 76 | |
| Havoc | 11 | 28 | |
| Finishing Drives | 58 | 59 |  |
| Quality Drives | 3 | 58 | |
Texas A&M Offense vs. Missouri Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 29 | 16 | |
| Line Yards | 16 | 6 | |
| Pass Success | 98 | 28 | |
| Havoc | 3 | 18 | |
| Finishing Drives | 88 | 11 | |
| Quality Drives | 58 | 8 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 32 | 76 |
| PFF Coverage | 64 | 94 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 41 | 32 |
| Middle 8 | 13 | 66 |
| Seconds per Play | 27.1 (64) | 28.4 (89) |
| Rush Rate | 51% (65) | 63% (17) |
How to Bet Missouri vs. Texas
Texas A&M has struggled to defend against the explosive play.
Arkansas posted two rushing attempts over 20 yards and another seven passing attempts over 15 yards. During a road victory in Gainesville, Florida had six passing attempts go for more than 15 yards.
Elko commented that the communication between the three different units on defense has been missing, allowing opponents to create plenty of explosives plays.
The Missouri offense has shown severe struggles in the areas where the Aggies defense should be attacked. The Tigers are near the bottom in Pass EPA, as Cook has completed just 3-of-14 attempts beyond 20 yards.
Not only have the numbers evaporated from creating chunk plays, but the loss of Cody Schrader at running back has directly impacted the Tigers' ability to generate scores. They're outside the top 50 in red-zone touchdown rate and Finishing Drives, data points worth noting against one of the softest schedules in the nation.
Cook should have plenty of pressured passing attempts against Scourton and fellow edge Shemar Stewart, who have combined for 20 quarterback hurries this season.
The Texas A&M offense may have options at quarterback, as a healthy Weigman could look to take advantage of a Tigers secondary that allowed a number of explosive drives to Vanderbilt and Boston College.
The small margin of victory in an overtime game with the Commodores indicates Reed will have success running the RPO with Moss.
Pick: Texas A&M ML (-135 or Better)
College Football Betting Trends for Texas A&M vs. Missouri
Missouri vs. Texas A&M Weather Forecast
