The Navy Midshipmen take on the Notre Dame Fighting Irish in South Bend, Indiana, on Saturday, Nov. 8. Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET on NBC.
Notre Dame is favored by 26.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -3500. Navy, meanwhile, enters as a +26.5 underdog and is +1400 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 55.5 total points.
Here’s my Navy vs. Notre Dame prediction and college football picks for Saturday, November 8.
Navy vs Notre Dame Prediction, Picks
- Navy vs. Notre Dame Pick: Notre Dame Team Total Over 40.5 (Play to 41.5)
My Notre Dame vs. Navy best bet is on the Fighting Irish to go over their team total. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Navy vs Notre Dame Odds, Lines, Spread
| Navy Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+28 -110 | 55.5 -105o / -115u | +2000 |
| Notre Dame Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-28 -110 | 55.5 -105o / -115u | -10000 |
- Navy vs Notre Dame Spread: Notre Dame -28, Navy +28
- Navy vs Notre Dame Over/Under: 55.5
- Navy vs Notre Dame Moneyline: Notre Dame ML -10000, Navy ML +2000
Navy vs Notre Dame NCAAF Week 11 Preview
Notre Dame Fighting Irish Betting Preview: Advantages for Irish?
The Notre Dame team total over 41.5 is one of the strongest matchup-based edges on the board this week.
Almost every advanced metric signals that the Irish offense is set up to overwhelm a Navy defense that hasn’t shown the ability to slow down efficient, balanced teams.
Notre Dame enters this game ranking 13th nationally in EPA Per Pass and second in EPA Per Rush, making it one of the few offenses in the country that can beat opponents explosively or methodically without needing to be one-dimensional.
The Fighting Irish don't just create explosive plays; they create sustainable drives, ranking second in early down EPA Per Play, which keeps them out of obvious passing downs and allows them to stay on schedule.
I don't doubt that the Irish offense will move the ball at will.
When they do reach third down, they convert at a top-five rate in the country at 55.2%, which is a massive mismatch against a Navy defense that sits outside the top 80 in third-down stops and allows opponents to extend drives nearly half the time.
Every statistical category that matters for projecting a high team total favors Notre Dame. It wins early downs, field position, efficiency, drive sustainability, and they finish drives with touchdowns instead of field goals.
That matters even more given Notre Dame’s recent kicking inconsistency, a flaw that will work in our favor here.
Navy Midshipmen Betting Preview: Catching 2 Touchdowns
All that balance becomes a significant problem for a Navy defense that ranks 126th in EPA allowed through the air and 121st in available yards allowed, meaning opponents routinely move the ball at will and turn possessions into scoring opportunities.
Let's also shine a blue light on the Navy results thus far, considering many may believe that it's unjustly a 27-point underdog here.
In most cases, I'd be running to back a service academy catching over two touchdowns, but the Navy defense has a ton of red flags that I'm worried about.
Despite their record, the Midshipmen have been playing with fire far too often.
Navy’s defensive structure also plays directly into Notre Dame’s strengths. It's in the bottom tier against play-action, poor at fitting interior run lanes and routinely gets gashed by explosive runs after first contact.
That becomes a significant concern when facing a backfield that ranks top-10 nationally in yards after contact and an offensive line that sits top-15 in run-block win rate.
Navy vs Notre Dame NCAAF Week 11 Pick
Defensively, Notre Dame will be without defensive tackle Donovan Hinish, but that only affects Navy’s ability to sustain drives, not Notre Dame’s ability to score.
Suppose that Navy tries to play keep-away with the clock, as it usually does.
In that case, efficiency still beats tempo, and Notre Dame has already demonstrated this season that it doesn't need a lot of plays to score 40-plus points. It needs possessions.
Navy’s defense has allowed 30-plus points to teams far less explosive than this ND squad. When you combine Notre Dame’s elite early down Success Rate, red-zone touchdown rate, and the fact that Navy ranks in the bottom 20 nationally in available yards allowed, eclipsing 41 points becomes reasonable even with a total at 55.5.
Given the statistical profiles of both sides, the far more likely outcome is a Notre Dame offensive performance in the mid-40s or higher.
With the matchup, efficiency gap and drive-sustainability metrics all aligning, the Notre Dame team total over 41.5 is the best way to approach the matchup.
Pick: Notre Dame Team Total Over 40.5 (Play to 41.5)
Navy vs Notre Dame Betting Trends to Watch
