The North Carolina State Wolfpack (2-1) head to Death Valley to take on the Clemson Tigers (1-1) for an ACC duel Saturday. The game starts at 12 p.m. ET and is on ABC and streaming on ESPN+, YouTube TV and other streaming platforms for college football Week 4.
Clemson is a consensus 17.5-point favorite (Clemson -17.5) against NC State. The over/under is currently 44 points scored, while Clemson is a -950 favorite on the moneyline to win outright, with the Wolfpack +615 to pull off the road upset.
Clemson defensive end Peter Woods has been ruled out for Saturday's game. The Tigers will also be without offensive lineman Collin Sadler. The consensus point spread has not moved based off of the Clemson vs. NC State injury news, but some books are now down to as low as Clemson -17, and there is only one Clemson -18.5 left in the market. The over/under also came down half a point from 44.5 to 44.
NC State's lone loss came in a brutalizing 34-17 defeat to Tennessee, along with a couple of wins in closer-than-preferred battles to Western Carolina and Louisiana Tech. Clemson had itself an early bye in Week 3 after getting destroyed 34-3 by Georgia in Week 1 then notching a win vs. App State in Week 2.
Where does the betting value lie in this ACC matchup? Read more for my NC State vs Clemson predictions and my college football picks for Saturday, September 21.
NC State vs. Clemson Odds, Spread, Lines
| NC State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+18.5 -110 | 44 -110o / -110u | +625 |
| Clemson Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-18.5 -110 | 44 -110o / -110u | -950 |
- NC State vs. Clemson spread: Clemson -17.5
- NC State vs. Clemson over/under: 44 points
- NC State vs. Clemson moneylines: Clemson -950, NC State +615
NC State vs. Clemson Picks, Predictions
- NC State vs. Clemson pick: Over 44 | Bet to 46.5
My Clemson vs. NC State best bet is on the over, with the best line currently available at DraftKings, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Spread
I am not betting the spread, which has come down slightly from Clemson -20.5 to Clemson -18.5 early on Saturday.
Moneyline
I don't have a bet on which team will win outright, either.
Over/Under
I'm betting the over in NC State vs. Clemson. I would bet the over all the way up to 46.5, and we're currently getting a total as low as 44 at most books, so there's even more value now than when I first gave out this pick.
Prediction
Over 44, Bet to 46.5.
NC State Football: Pup Leading the Pack
It seemed as if things were going from bad to worse. Against Louisiana Tech, the Wolfpack were down 7-6, and then Grayson McCall got hurt. It inevitably forced freshman CJ Bailey into the fire, where he picked the Pack and led them to victory.
Bailey initially looked a little out of sorts, and it’s hard to blame him. However, after gathering himself at halftime, Bailey became the leader of the Pack, completing 12-of-18 passes for 144 yards while also running in a touchdown of his own.
McCall will come back, but it’s Bailey’s time to shine for now. With that comes some shiny toys to play with. I’ve always been a big Kevin Concepcion fan — he’s an explosive talent who has struggled since his massive Week 1.
Behind Concepcion, Justin Joly and Dacari Collins are making cases to be the program's WR1. It’s a true committee in the receiver room, as NC State ranks 51st in Passing Down Success Rate and 46th in Passing Success Rate.
Concepcion’s struggles aren’t the only black eye since Week 1. The run game hasn’t been much better. Jordan Waters dominated in Week 1 but has been invisible since. Kendrick Raphael and Hollywood Smothers have become the more efficient backs in Raleigh, but the team ranks 115th in Rush Success Rate and 95th in Rush PPA.
I’m a little concerned about the defense, though. NC State hasn’t had a game allowing under 20 points, and its two opponents are FCS Western Carolina and Louisiana Tech, whose underlying numbers are dreadful.
Defensively, this program is ranked 87th in Havoc and lets up loads of explosive plays (ranked 130th in Passing Down Explosiveness allowed).
Clemson Football: Contender or Pretender?
Clemson is such a fascinating program, and I still don’t know what to make of it.
Cade Klubnik looks really good, though. He’s completing passes at an astounding 76% rate. I’ve always been iffy on Klubnik, but even after Week 1's blowout, those numbers are no joke.
In addition, Clemson is 37th in Pass Success Rate but terrible in Passing Down metrics (121st in Success Rate).
Klubnik has some solid options, mainly in Jake Briningstool and Antonio Williams, who have accounted for nearly 40% of the targets. But they’re efficient, both averaging 13 yards per catch.
Phil Mafah is the bell-cow back. Clemson’s only played two games, but Mafah is averaging a stunning 6.8 yards per carry. However, he’s the only one seeing the bulk of the carries.
The Tigers own the nation's 69th-best rushing attack and rank 37th in PPA. Mafah, though, has already shown he’s capable of the explosive play, so he’s someone Dabo Swinney can count on.
Defensively, Clemson is a bit of a joke. The Tigers do well at generating Havoc, but that’s quite literally the only thing they do. They’re tied for 100th nationally in Success Rate allowed, 121st in Passing Down Success Rate allowed, and 98th in Rush Success Rate allowed.
How can you expect to be a top-tiered program with those types of horrible numbers?
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how NC State and Clemson match up statistically:
NC State Offense vs. Clemson Defense
 |  Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 115 | 98 | |
| Line Yards | 104 | 129 | |
| Pass Success | 46 | 94 | |
| Havoc | 132 | 32 | |
| Finishing Drives | 115 | 110 | |
| Quality Drives | 80 | 98 | |
Clemson Offense vs. NC State Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 69 | 50 | |
| Line Yards | 52 | 101 | |
| Pass Success | 37 | 51 | |
| Havoc | 69 | 78 | |
| Finishing Drives | 27 | 64 | |
| Quality Drives | 29 | 111 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 57 | 74 |
| PFF Coverage | 40 | 61 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 34 | 65 |
| Middle 8 | 127 | 126 |
| Seconds per Play | 31.4 (126) | 28.2 (75) |
| Rush Rate | 51% (79) | 46% (107) |
I look at both of these rosters and there’s one common trend: poor defense.
NC State is going to let up a lot of points. It crumbled to the Vols and letting up 20-plus to Louisiana Tech and Western Carolina is inexcusable.
Meanwhile, I can see Clemson scoring a ton of points. Klubnik has shown a knack for efficiency with the weapons he has. I can also see Mafah stomping a mudhole in the Wolfpack’s defensive corps. While NC State does a fine job at stopping the run, it’s privy to explosive plays.
Bet this game to go over the total. I expect a lot of defenders to get cooked in this bout.
Pick: Over 46.5
How to Watch: Start Time, TV Channel, Streaming
| Location: | Memorial Stadium, Clemson, SC |
| Date: | Saturday, Sept. 21 |
| Kickoff Time: | 12 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ABC / ESPN+, YouTube TV |
Clemson vs. NC State is set to start at 12 p.m. ET on Saturday, live on ABC. The game is also streaming on ESPN+, YouTube TV, and other streaming platforms.
Clemson vs. NC State Betting Trends
- 51% of bets and 57% of the money are on Clemson to cover.
- 63% of bets and 34% of the money are on the over.
- 94% of bets and 95% of the money are on Clemson to win outright on the moneyline.
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