The North Carolina State Wolfpack take on the Miami Hurricanes in Miami Gardens, Florida, on Saturday, Nov. 15. Kickoff is set for 3:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Miami is favored by 15.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -650. NC State, meanwhile, enters as a +15.5 underdog and is +500 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 55.5 total points.
Here’s my NC State vs. Miami prediction and college football picks for Saturday, November 15.
NC State vs Miami Prediction, Picks
- NC State vs. Miami Pick: Over 55.5
My Miami vs. NC State best bet is on both teams to go over the total. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
NC State vs Miami Odds, Line, Spread
| NC State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+14.5 -110 | 54.5 -115o / -105u | +475 |
| Miami Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-14.5 -110 | 54.5 -115o / -105u | -650 |
- NC State vs Miami Spread: Miami -14.5, NC State +14.5
- NC State vs Miami Over/Under: 54.5
- NC State vs Miami Moneyline: NC State ML +475, Miami ML -650
NC State vs Miami NCAAF Week 12 Preview
NC State Wolfpack Betting Preview
NC State’s passing offense isn’t just efficient; it’s explosive in a way that Miami has repeatedly shown it cannot handle for four full quarters.
The Wolfpack rank 11th nationally in EPA/Pass. That number becomes even more meaningful when paired with their 49.0% available yards gained rate, which shows they’re consistently turning drives into legitimate scoring opportunities.
Miami’s defense may have a reputation for physicality, but I don't think it's flawless.
NC State sits near the top nationally in early downs EPA/Play, and that matters in an over because nothing accelerates scoring like avoiding third-and-long.
Even its average third-down distance of 7.56 yards (ranked 111th) becomes a hidden positive here because it incentivizes aggression and deeper shots. Miami’s defense, which thrives mostly against the run, becomes far more vulnerable when forced into repeated high-leverage passing downs.
Running back Hollywood Smothers has been incredibly explosive, but the Wolfpack's offense has flown under the radar all season because of their poor defense.
Miami Hurricanes Betting Preview
The other half of the equation is even more compelling. Miami is built to shred a defense like NC State’s, and the stats back it up in every direction.
The Hurricanes bring their 25th-ranked EPA/Pass into the matchup, and that will play up massively against an NC State secondary that ranks an alarming 124th in EPA/Pass allowed and is one of the worst Power Four pass defenses at preventing explosive plays.
NC State’s defense also allows opponents to gain 56.4% of available yards, ranking 122nd nationally. That's a huge red flag when facing a Miami offense that already starts drives at favorable field position most of the time.
This will shorten the field and increase overall scoring expectation.
Miami comes into this game at 37th in early-down Success Rate, which gives it a consistent rhythm. On top of that, its average third-down distance of 6.5 yards means drives are rarely stalled.
That’s a nightmare for an NC State defense ranking near the bottom of the country in third-down success, giving up a staggering 50% conversion rate.
This is also a terrific spot for wide receiver Malachi Toney to explode, so targeting his props on top of the total isn't a bad idea.
NC State vs Miami Pick, Best Bets
What ties everything together is the hidden tempo baked into this matchup.
Neither team is fast-paced on paper, but their efficiency profiles mimic fast-paced teams because they sustain drives and reach scoring range without requiring long, methodical marches.
Injuries also support the over. Neither offense is dealing with key quarterback or skill-position absences this week, and both teams’ top offensive contributors are projected to be available. That matters because both teams rely heavily on quarterback efficiency to drive up their overall EPA.
Miami’s secondary has been banged up recently. While most starters are expected to play, the depth issues in the defensive backfield could show their cards on Saturday.
Stack everything together, and I love the over here.
Pick: Over 55.5
NC State vs Miami Betting Trends to Watch
