NCAAF Best Bets: Afternoon Picks
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 3:30 p.m. | |
  | 3:30 p.m. | |
| 3:30 p.m. | |
  | 4:15 p.m. | |
  | 5 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
The afternoon slate features two top-five teams in action and a sweet Florida rivalry.
Our college football experts have five best bets for this afternoon window, including a pick featuring one of those top-five squads.
Here's college football best bets, picks and predictions for Week 1 afternoon games on Saturday, August 31.
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Colorado State vs. Texas Best Bet: Offenses Will Show Up
By Cody Goggin
Last season, Texas was able to make it all the way to the College Football Playoff on the backs of its incredible offense and great defensive front. The Longhorns had one of the best run defenses in the country with Byron Murphy II and T’Vondre Sweat plugging up gaps up front.
Those two have now left for the NFL, and there are much bigger holes on this defense.
The secondary wasn’t a strength for the Longhorns last season, as they were 55th in Passing Success Rate Allowed and 73rd in Passing Explosiveness Allowed. Texas ranked just 61st in PFF coverage grade last year.
This season, the Longhorns do bring back some experience on the back end, but they had to plug their holes with transfers Andrew Mukuba (Clemson) and Jay’Vion Cole (San Jose State).
Colorado State had one of the better passing offenses last season, ranking 38th in Passing Success Rate and 36th in passing PPA while throwing the ball 60% of the time.
Star receiver Tory Horton returns with quarterback Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi. Also, three starters return on an offensive line that ranked 62nd in the country in PFF pass blocking grade.
CSU’s defense was just 89th in Success Rate last season, including 111th in Passing Success Rate Allowed. The Rams replaced three starters in the front six and will likely have trouble slowing down this Texas offense.
Texas returns four offensive linemen and quarterback Quinn Ewers. It also bring in Silas Bolden from Oregon State and Isaiah Bond from Alabama to fill its gaps in the receiving corps. This offense ranked sixth in SP+ last season and should be strong once again.
At 59.5 points, I see this game going well over the total. I think that both teams have the ability to score, and Texas will more than shoulder its load in the total output.
I’d take the over at 59.5 and play this up to 61.5 in what I believe will be a high-scoring affair.
Pick: Over 59.5 (Play to 61.5) |
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UTEP vs. Nebraska Best Bet: Offensive Fireworks on Deck
Nebraska vs. UTEP is a higher-variance game than the price would suggest.
More than two-thirds of Nebraska’s stout defense returns. Last year, the Cornhuskers excelled in Havoc and Finishing Drives. However, they owned one of the biggest improvements in defensive scoring margin from 2022 to ‘23.
I won’t bank on UTEP’s offense going blow-for-blow, but it at least has the capability to contribute. The Miners' Austin Peay infusion includes a pair of wide receivers who posted better than 2.1 yards per route run last season.
Nearly every single player on Nebraska’s offense, meanwhile, has a reason to want to show out.
Five-star quarterback Dylan Raiola makes his home debut. Wide receiver Isaiah Neyor was supposed to be a big contributor for Texas out of the portal before getting injured. If the offensive line is as bad as it was last season, then everyone should be fired.
Also, Saturday’s Lincoln forecast sets up a sexy backdrop for points and passing: 87 degrees, minimal wind, and the factors to tee up a 59%-winning PRO System that essentially says to take the over.
I understand that Matt Rhule is a defensive-minded coach, but the total is a bit too Rhule-y for me. I like it up to 52.
Pick: Over 47.5 (Play to 52) |
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UTEP vs. Nebraska Best Bet: Plenty of Points
By Joshua Nunn
Nebraska comes into this season with quite a bit of hype, and at some point, it has to start living up to it. This team, administration and fan base are tired of the offensive ineptitude, close low-scoring losses and red zone inefficiency that's plagued this team for nearly 10 years.
This trend continued last year. In seven losses, the Huskers averaged 12.2 points per game, scoring no more than 17 in those contests.
The offensive efficiency improvement pendulum has to swing their way at some point, and bringing in Raiola — the nation's top QB recruit — should certainly improve the Huskers' output this season.
The offensive line looks solid, and this is a spot where Nebraska should put up a big number against a UTEP defense that was really bad last year, despite seeing fewer snaps given its offense’s slow-paced style.
UTEP gave up 5.4 yards per carry last year, and you saw major chinks in its armor when it played high-powered offenses such as Arizona, UNLV, New Mexico State and Liberty.
I can't imagine Nebraska having any trouble gashing UTEP in the run game, as the talent within the trenches will provide a massive edge for Nebraska.
UTEP is also in a time of transition as Scotty Walden comes in from Austin Peay to replace Dana Dimel. The two couldn't be more polar opposite from a stylistic, energy and tempo standpoint.
The offense brings back QB Cade McConnell Jr., who threw for 1,437 yards last year with a 6-4 TD/INT ratio in limited action after taking over for Gavin Hardison. They also have several transfers brought in from the FCS ranks that the coaching staff is extremely high on.
With only five starters back on a bad defense and having to replace studs such as Prince Amaewhule (UTEP career sack leader) and Tyrice Knight (First Team All-C-USA last year, FBS leader in solo tackles in 2023) and all five starters in the secondary, this assignment for the UTEP defense won't be an easy one.
I'm focusing on the total for this game, which is about 10 points too low and seems to be derivative of last year’s Nebraska and UTEP offensive woes and style of play.
I get the sense that Nebraska needs to exercise some offensive demons in this game, and I look for it to score a ton.
With UTEP running up-tempo and deploying more of a passing attack (57% rush rate last year), it'll score more points this year and also further expose what's on paper expected to be a really bad C-USA defense.
Pick: Over 47.5 (Play to 51) |
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Old Dominion vs. South Carolina Best Bet: Expect a Blowout?
If it weren’t for bad luck, South Carolina wouldn’t have had any luck at all last season. Its offensive line was a MASH unit, forcing it to play multiple players out of their true positions.
In total, 12 Gamecocks missed time along the offensive line. When the final results came in, you could make a strong case that they had the worst offensive line in the SEC, finishing last in the conference in run blocking (121st) and second-to-last in pass pro (116th), according to PFF.
The great news for South Carolina on Saturday is that it's fully healthy, loaded with experience up front and all five starters have had fall camp to gel together.
If USC’s front is merely average, there’s a chance we see an offensive explosion this fall. The Gamecocks feature an intriguing “Big Three" in dual-threat passer LaNorris Sellers, transfer running back Rocket Sanders and modern marvel Nyck Harbor.
For the second year in a row, Harbor topped Bruce Feldman’s “Freak List.” At 6-foot-5, 242 pounds, it’s more likely than not that he's the world’s fastest man in the 240+ weight class. His 200m time (20.20-second personal best) automatically qualified him for the Olympic Trials.
He should pose all kinds of problems for a patchwork ODU secondary.
On the Old Dominion side of things, the team is coasting on the reputation of being a bowl team last season. But when you dig into those wins, it beat 1-10 Texas A&M-Commerce by a single point, stopped 3-9 Southern Miss at the goal line late in a four-point win and orchestrated an insane 11-point comeback against Georgia State in the regular-season finale.
That wild comeback featured a blocked field goal, safety and a rushing score on the final play of the game.
If South Carolina was snakebit last season, ODU was a quintessential “luck box.”
This game will be determined in two departments: Havoc and explosives. Old Dominion couldn’t protect Grant Wilson last season (51 sacks), and it was regularly torched through the air. The Monarchs put the toast in Toastery Bowl when they gave up 383 yards to Caden Veltkamp in his first career start.
This game has blowout written all over it.
Pick: South Carolina -20.5 (Play to -21.5) |
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North Texas vs. South Alabama Best Bet: Back Mean Green
By Doug Ziefel
The key to this matchup is the North Texas Mean Green showing some fight on the defensive side of the ball.
Last season, the Mean Green were shredded on defense, ranking 127th in points per game and 133rd yards per game allowed.
However, their opposition, the South Alabama Jaguars are getting a lot of respect for a team with significant offensive turnover. They have a new quarterback, a new running back and new wide receivers.
The Jaguars had a balanced offense last year, but they like to spread the ball around in the passing game, which will aid the Mean Green (since North Texas had serious issues stopping the run).
Although North Texas made it a point to improve its defense this year and make a better effort in the run game, if that happens, this matchup will swing in its favor.
The Mean Green also have some new faces on offense, but their scheme will be similar to last year's,, and they were tremendous. Their aerial attack and tempo made them a quick-strike offense, ranking fifth in yards per game nationally.
We should see them succeed against a South Alabama defense that's benefited from dominating weaker conference opposition.
This all makes North Texas very likely to win this one outright, but since it's Week 1, we should be a bit more conservative and take the points.
Pick: North Texas +5.5 (Play to +3.5) |
