Coming off an impressive run under Brent Brennan, San Jose State entered 2024 with questions.
What would this team look like with Ken Niumatalolo, especially on offense, and would he successfully move away from the triple option?
So far, so good.
The Spartans have started 3-1, with their lone defeat coming by two points in a 52-54 shootout on the road at Washington State. The offense is firing on all cylinders, and it looks like San Jose State will be in the thick of the Mountain West Championship picture.
Nevada is very much in a rebuilding era. The Wolf Pack won just four games in two years under Ken Wilson, and he was quickly shown the door for Texas defensive coordinator Jeff Choate.
Don’t mistake rebuilding for noncompetitive, though. Nevada has already knocked off the defending Sun Belt Champions in Troy and hung with SMU and Georgia Southern before blowing out Eastern Washington 49-16 last week.
San Jose State is a -6.5 favorite at home. Should we trust the Spartans to cover the spread? Let's get into my Nevada vs San Jose State predictions and my college football picks for Saturday.
Nevada vs San Jose State Odds, Pick
| Nevada Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7 -115 | 50.5 -110o / -110u | +210 |
| San Jose State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7 -105 | 50.5 -110o / -110u | -260 |
- Nevada vs San Jose State spread: San Jose State -7
- Nevada vs San Jose State over/under: 50.5 points
- Nevada vs San Jose State moneyline: San Jose State -260
- Nevada vs San Jose State pick: San Jose State -7
Nevada Football vs San Jose State Football Preview
Nevada Football
This Nevada defense is very one-dimensional.
Brendon Lewis returned as quarterback despite a search for better options. Lewis has gotten better and has taken a step forward as a passer. He has tossed seven touchdowns with four interceptions and raised his completion percentage from 55.5% to 68%.
He is only averaging 173.6 passing yards per game, but his legs make him the most dangerous. Lewis is averaging 54.4 yards per game and forms a solid backfield combination with Savion Red and Patrick Garwo III. Red is 7.3 yards per carry this season, and Garwo is the goal line back, already tallying five scores.
It’s no surprise that the defensive-minded Choate has been able to improve this Wolf Pack defense. Now, I wouldn’t call this unit good just yet. They still rank 78th in the country in Success Rate allowed. However, allowing 5.8 yards per play is a substantial improvement from the 6.9 yards per play they were torched for last season.
Linebackers Tongiaki Mateialona and Drue Watts are the keys to this defense and a strong duo in the middle. Still, Nevada needs to do a much better job at putting pressure on the quarterback. They have managed just five sacks all season.
San Jose State Football
It was a bit of a surprise when Niumatalolo brought in Craig Stutzmann from Texas State to run his "Spread and Shred" offense in San Jose, but so far, it has worked tremendously, and they sure have been shredding.
Quarterback Emmett Brown won the starting job and has thrown 13 touchdowns in the first four games. He is averaging 322.5 yards per game and has had at least 260 yards and multiple scores in each game.
Brown has this offense ranked 22nd in the country in passing success rate, largely due to his connection with stud receiver Nick Nash. The Spartans wideout leads the country with eight touchdowns in four games. His 50 catches lead the nation in one less game, and he is averaging 160 yards per contest. Nash has been with this program since 2019 and started as a quarterback for his first three seasons. He started most of the 2021 season at quarterback and now leads the country in catches.
San Jose State also returns the very good Justin Lockhart on the other side and two capable tight ends. This is a pass-first team all the way, but running back Floyd Chalk IV is coming off his best game of the season against Washington State. The Spartans put up 52 points in that game and nearly 500 yards of offense.
The offense is getting the headlines, but this defense had looked very strong until last week. Last year, when San Jose State went on that incredible run to turn its season around and win its final six games, the defense improvement was a major reason.
Defensive coordinator Derrick Odum remained in this position when Niumatalolo took over, and the defense picked up right where it left off. Even with last week’s blowup, the Spartans are still averaging just 4.5 yards per play, the 20th-best in the country.
Nevada vs San Jose State Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Nevada and San Jose State match up statistically:
Nevada Offense vs. San Jose State Defense
 |  Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 43 | 90 | |
| Line Yards | 61 | 36 | |
| Pass Success | 89 | 30 | |
| Havoc | 65 | 29 | |
| Finishing Drives | 66 | 88 | |
| Quality Drives | 42 | 44 |  |
San Jose State Offense vs. Nevada Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 129 | 86 | |
| Line Yards | 134 | 57 | |
| Pass Success | 22 | 83 | |
| Havoc | 127 | 73 | |
| Finishing Drives | 26 | 85 | |
| Quality Drives | 90 | 108 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 124 | 47 |
| PFF Coverage | 35 | 86 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 128 | 91 |
| Middle 8 | 68 | 1 |
| Seconds per Play | 30.8 (128) | 24.6 (21) |
| Rush Rate | 60% (30) | 41% (125) |
Nevada vs San Jose State Prediction
This new-look San Jose State offense is averaging 35.5 points per game and has averaged 6.5 yards per play in each of the last two games. The Brown-to-Nash connection is one of the best in the country and has the team's top 25 in Pass Success Rate and top 15 in Explosiveness. The offense is clicking on all cylinders.
Last week, the Spartans' defense got shredded by Washington State in a shootout game that went sideways, but they had looked terrific before that. Now, they have a bye week to regroup and get ready for a good matchup against a one-dimensional Nevada team that is not a threat to beat you through the air.
Nevada will continue to rely on its run game. Before the Washington State performance, the Spartans had previously held Air Force to just 143 rushing yards on 46 carries and Kennesaw State to 64 yards on 39 carries.
If the Wolf Pack fall behind in this game, they are not built to come back when trailing. San Jose will be able to pull ahead if their passing attack is clicking and able to hit big plays. The Nevada defense is still a little while away, and this will be the best passing attack they have faced by a mile. They do not create any pressure on the quarterback and have managed just five sacks all season. Brown will have plenty of time to sit in the pocket and find Nash down the field.
I like the Spartans to bounce back defensively and pull away from the Wolf Pack here.
Pick: San Jose State -7 (Play to -8)
How to Watch Nevada vs San Jose State Live: Streaming, Channel, Time
| Location: | CEFCU Stadium |
| Date: | Saturday, Oct. 5 |
| Kickoff Time: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | truTV |
San Jose State vs Nevada Betting Trends
- Nevada is 2-3 SU but 3-2 ATS
- Nevada games are 3-2 to the Under
- San Jose State is 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS
San Jose State vs Nevada Weather
