Gus Malzahn’s UCF Knights open up their season on Thursday night as they host FCS New Hampshire.
As expected, the Knights are huge favorites, thanks to a prolific rushing attack and new transfer quarterback KJ Jefferson.
The Knights have a star-laden backfield and are considered Big 12 contenders. They'll take on a rebuilding New Hampshire squad from the CAA.
Do the Knights have what it takes to cover this huge number? Let’s get into my New Hampshire vs. UCF prediction.
New Hampshire vs UCF Prediction
- New Hampshire vs. UCF Pick: UCF -41.5
My New Hampshire vs. UCF best bet is the Knights to cover with the best line currently available at DraftKings, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
New Hampshire vs UCF Odds
| New Hampshire Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+41.5 -110 | 63 -110 / -110 | +6500 |
| UCF Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-41.5 -110 | 63 -110 / -110 | -10000 |
- New Hampshire vs UCF Point Spread: New Hampshire +41.5 (-110) · UCF -41.5 (-110)
- New Hampshire vs UCF Total: Over/Under 63
- New Hampshire vs UCF Moneyline: New Hampshire +6500 · UCF -10000
New Hampshire vs UCF Preview
New Hampshire Wildcats Betting Preview: This Could Be a Long Night
The Wildcats program is something of a cradle of coaches — Chip Kelly and Ryan Day both spent formative years here. But Rick Santos’ team will not look like the dominant offensive outfits of the past.
Last year, despite returning a star quarterback and running back, the team slumped. Now, all-purpose monster Dylan Laube (4,421 career scrimmage yards) is on the Las Vegas Raiders and gunslinger quarterback Max Brosmer will be starting for the Minnesota Golden Gophers on this same Thursday night.
Seth Morgan, a transfer from D-II Shepherd, is the replacement quarterback, but he won’t have any skill position players of Laube's caliber as New Hampshire hits reset.
Defensively, the pass defense was one of the worst in FCS and ranked 14th last year in the CAA. The defensive line has a pair of all-conference players in Dylan Ruiz and Josiah Silver, but those two alone won’t be enough to put up a roadblock against UCF's rushing attack.
UCF Knights Betting Preview: Plenty of Points Expected
UCF is expected to have one of the best offenses in college football this season, especially on the ground.
Malzahn has always been known as a creative designer of strong ground attacks, and last year was no different. He ran the ball at the 22nd-highest rate in the country and his team finished top-20 in both Rushing Success Rate and rushing explosiveness.
The Knights return senior running back RJ Harvey, who's one of the best backs in the nation. He rushed for 1,416 yards and 16 scores on 6.3 yards per tote a season ago. He's joined by another prolific veteran, Peny Boone, who rushed for 1,400 yards, 15 scores and 7.2 yards per carry at Toledo.
If that 1-2 punch isn’t enough, enter Jefferson, the new quarterback who transferred in from Arkansas. Jefferson is a hulking 6-foot-3 and 247 pounds, and Malzahn has said he’s the closest player to Cam Newton he’s coached since the man himself.
Removing sack yardage lost, Jefferson has accumulated 2,477 yards on 5.7 yards per carry in his career. He’s a punishing runner for a quarterback with 4.48 yards per carry after contact against mostly SEC defenses. Now imagine that kind of runner against an FCS opponent.
Jefferson is a better passer than the departed John Rhys Plumlee and will unlock a new threat to this team, while maintaining — or even elevating — an already dominant ground game.
On defense, the Knights are solid and rank 44th in Bill Connelly’s SP+ projections. Veteran defensive coordinator Ted Roof adds stability and experience to the staff. While this is hardly a dominant shutdown unit, there's enough returning power conference talent to not be tested by New Hampshire's rebuilding offense.
New Hampshire vs UCF Pick & Prediction
So, we know UCF is going to win big. The question is, do we think it can cover this number, which is currently 41.5? This game opened at 33.5, and lucky for you if you have that ticket because after the steam, this is a taller ask.
But Malzahn squashes bugs. In the three seasons he's been the head man at UCF, his Knights have been a home favorite of 23 or more points six times. In those games, he's 6-0 ATS. The Knights have been favored by 40 or more twice, and covered both of those games.
His style lends itself to downhill, runaway wins against overmatched opponents. An Air Raid scheme can slow down, call safe passes and even run the ball.
Meanwhile, Malzahn's creative, misdirection option-like playbook can pump the brakes on the tempo, but, even at its most conservative, is too well-coached, well-designed and well-executed.
Once the Malzahn Machine is running, it can’t be stopped.
While I don’t believe the Knights will take the field with the goal of running up cartoon numbers on a sacrificial lamb in an unsportsmanlike manner, the depth of talent and the execution of the scheme will lead to a blowout win for UCF.
Malzahn’s history of covering large numbers will repeat itself, especially as his offense breaks in its two new stars.
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How to Watch New Hampshire vs UCF Live: Start Time, TV Channel, Location
| Location: | FBC Mortgage Stadium |
| Date: | Thursday, Aug. 29 |
| Kickoff Time: | 7 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPN+ |
New Hampshire vs UCF Betting Trends
- UCF was 5-6-1 ATS last season.
- UCF is the clear sharp side in this matchup. While the Knights are landing only 20% of the tickets, they're taking 73% of the money.
- The under has garnered 87% of bets but only 61% of the money.
New Hampshire vs UCF Weather
