New Mexico vs. Arizona Preview
- New Mexico vs Arizona kicks off at 10:30 p.m. ET on Saturday live from Tucson, Arizona, on ESPN. It's the first game of the 2024 college football season for both teams.
- No. 21 Arizona is currently -28.5, meaning the Wildcats are favored by over four touchdowns. That line has been as big as Arizona -31.5.
- The point spread is too big here for me to see much value in betting on the spread or moneyline.
- My New Mexico vs. Arizona best bet is a pick on the over, as I'm expecting plenty of offense in this game — and make sure to check out our top sportsbooks list when you place your bets!
Arizona looks to kick off the Brent Brennan era in style when it hosts New Mexico, a matchup I'll dig into with my New Mexico vs. Arizona prediction.
Jedd Fisch completely turned Arizona's program around, going from 1-11 in 2021 to 10-3 last season and beating Oklahoma 38-24 in the Alamo Bowl.
Brennan comes over from San Jose State after turning around its program. He'll need to keep Arizona on the right trajectory as it makes the transition to the Big 12.
With Noah Fifita back at quarterback, the Wildcats are a potential dark horse to make the College Football Playoff.
New Mexico lost its opening game of the season to Montana State, and it looks to be near the bottom of the Mountain West this season. The Lobos were double-digit underdogs coming into the game against Montana State and only lost by four, but it's not a good sign, as they were almost two touchdown underdogs to an FCS team in Week 0.
This is the first season under former BYU and Virginia head coach Bronco Mendenhall, so there's likely to be some growing pains early on.
Here are my New Mexico vs. Arizona predictions and my college football picks for this Week 1 matchup.
New Mexico vs Arizona Picks
SPREAD
I'm passing on the spread as it's a massive number.
MONEYLINE
I won't be betting on either side to win outright because I feel Arizona will win this game, but there's no value in betting the Wildcats straight up.
TOTAL
My New Mexico-Arizona best bet is on the over, with the best line currently available at FanDuel, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
New Mexico vs. Arizona Pick: Over 58
New Mexico vs Arizona Odds
| New Mexico Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+28.5 -106 | 59.5 -105o / -115u | +1600 |
| Arizona Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-28.5 -114 | 59.5 -105o / -115u | -4500 |
- New Mexico vs Arizona Point Spread: Arizona -28.5 | New Mexico +28.5
- New Mexico vs Arizona Total: Over/Under 59.5
- New Mexico vs Arizona Moneyline: Arizona -7000 | New Mexico +2000
How to Watch New Mexico vs Arizona
| Location: | Arizona Stadium, Tucson, AZ |
| Date: | Saturday, August 31 |
| Kickoff Time: | 10:30 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPN |
Arizona vs New Mexico is scheduled for 10:30 p.m. ET live from Tucson, Arizona on Saturday. The game is live on ESPN and streaming on ESPN+ and all streaming platforms that carry ESPN, such as YouTube TV.
New Mexico vs Arizona Weather
New Mexico vs Arizona Betting Trends
- 50% of bets and 66% of the money are on Arizona to cover the spread.
- 53% of bets but only 27% of the money are on the under.
- 3% of bets but 97% of the money on the moneyline are on New Mexico to pull off the upset.
New Mexico vs. Arizona: College Football Week 1 Picks
Head coach Bronco Mendenhall is coming into a dire situation here at New Mexico. The Lobos have very little returning production on the offensive side of the ball, but they actually looked pretty good in their opening game against Montana State.
The Bobcats were able to control clock and had the ball for almost 35 minutes of the game. However, the Lobos did average six yards per play and were really effective on the ground.
Devon Dampier was the backup last season and was decent in his lone start against Boise State, going 17-for-26 for 200 yards. He showed on Saturday that he's a pretty good runner.
New Mexico’s Devon Dampier FOOLED the entire defense.
This is football at its most beautiful. pic.twitter.com/WkXpBcLZA2
— Ben Stevens (@BenScottStevens) August 24, 2024
New Mexico also picked up former Iowa State running back Eli Sanders in the transfer portal after he averaged 4.7 yards per carry and had a 77.6 PFF rushing grade.
The offensive line is going to be a work in progress with a whole bunch of transfers coming in, but if the first game is any indication, this New Mexico offense may be a little feisty.
Defensively, the Lobos were a mess last season (123rd in EPA/Play allowed), and those issues continued against the Bobcats. Montana State put up 567 yards of total offense and ran the ball for 7.7 yards per carry. Six starters from last year's team return — along with some transfers — but it's a rebuild at the moment.
Fifita is likely going to throw all over this secondary that allowed 9.3 yards per attempt last season, which was the highest mark in college football.
New Mexico lost three starters in the secondary and is going to rely on a lot of new faces in this game, so Fifita could put up video-game numbers.
Brent Brennan made a solid move this offseason bringing in former Syracuse head coach Dino Babers to be his offensive coordinator, while also retaining a lot of key players, including Fifita.
Fifita is one of the best short-to-medium passers in college football. He didn't throw the ball deep a ton last season (only nine big time throws), but he still was able to average 8.6 yards per attempt and had a 83.9 PFF passing grade.
Throws between 10-19 yards is where he thrives. He actually averaged a higher yards per attempt on those than he did on passes over 20+ yards. That's because he's an incredibly accurate passer, having the fourth-best on-target percentage in college football last season.
Brennan was able to keep Fifita's top target, Tetairoa McMillan, who's a big time deep threat. He caught 90 balls and averaged 15.6 yards per reception last season with a 89.1 PFF receiving grade.
Arizona also grabbed one of the best players from New Mexico last season in the transfer portal in running back Jacory Croskey-Merritt. He was Second Team All-Mountain West by averaging a whopping 6.3 yards per carry and notching 39 runs over 10+ yards.
The defense for Arizona has a lot of question marks, though. The line lost all four starters from last season and is going to be relying on a lot of transfers. We could see some growing pains early on here.
Best Bet for New Mexico vs. Arizona
New Mexico showed a lot glimpses in the opener against Montana State. It showed that it can be a competent offense that can run the football effectively.
Dampier and Sanders going up against a completely brand new defensive line with a game under its belt should be a pretty good matchup for the Lobos.
However, Fifita and company are going to have a massive day against the Lobos' defense. Not only are they bringing back their top wide receiver, but also adding New Mexico's best player from last season is a nightmare for the Lobos. The Wildcats can probably pick their score here.
New Mexico's secondary being completely brand new after coming off allowing the most yards per attempt in college football is about as bad of a scenario as you can ask for if you're the Lobos.
Arizona has Northern Arizona next week, so there's really no reason to hide or not show anything here against New Mexico. I'll put it this way as well: If Montana State was able to put 572 yards of total offense, what do you think Fifita and Arizona are going to do?
I really like the value on Over 58.5 points, as both offenses should have pretty good advantages against the opposing defenses.
Pick: Over 58.5 via bet365
