New Mexico (2-4) will travel to Logan, Utah, on Saturday to play Utah State (1-5).
The game kicks off at 4 p.m. ET and can be seen live on truTV.
New Mexico enters the game as a slight 2-point favorite in the contest with a total set at 77.5. Of note, this is the highest over/under set in a Division I college football game this season.
Let's make a New Mexico vs. Utah State predictions and my college football picks for Saturday.
New Mexico vs Utah State Odds, Spread, Pick
| New Mexico Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2 -108 | 77.5 -110o / -110u | -122 |
| Utah State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2 -112 | 77.5 -110o / -110u | +102 |
- New Mexico vs Utah State spread: New Mexico -2
- New Mexico vs Utah State over/under: 77.5 points
- New Mexico vs Utah State moneyline: New Mexico -122
- New Mexico vs Utah State pick: Over 77.5
My New Mexico vs Utah State best bet is on the over, with the best line currently available at FanDuel, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
New Mexico vs Utah State Preview
New Mexico Football
New Mexico comes into this one feeling pretty good after back-to-back wins against New Mexico State and Air Force.
The Lobos' offense — led by dual-threat quarterback Devon Dampier — has been dynamic and fun to watch all season. The sophomore quarterback has consistently been able to avoid pressure and extend plays with his legs. He has thrown for 1,488 yards on a 58% completion rate this season with seven touchdown passes and is the leading rusher for the Lobos with 382 yards and eight rushing scores.
Dampier has multiple receiving threats to distribute the ball to, as six Lobos have caught at least 10 passes this year. Luke Wysong leads the team with 40 receptions for 507 yards.
The defense for the Lobos has been equally bad for how powerful the offense has been. The defense has yielded no less than 35 points in any game this season, and they are surrendering 498 yards per game, with 7.7 yards per play given up. The last two weeks have been especially concerning, as the Lobos have surrendered 77 points and 948 yards against two weak offenses (NMSU, AFA).
Utah State Football
Utah State comes in as losers of five straight games, and the Aggies have plenty of defensive struggles.
Over its last three contests, Utah State has surrendered 52.3 points and 532 yards per game. For the season, Utah State has given up 6.8 yards per play, yielding 233 rushing yards per game.
The offense has played better lately, notably against the top two teams in the Mountain West Conference, Boise State and UNLV.
Utah State was able to succeed against these defenses through the air, as quarterback Spencer Petras completed 68 of 100 passes for 833 yards and six touchdown passes.
The run game has not been overly explosive, but the team has averaged 3.9 yards per carry, with Rahsul Faison leading the way on the ground.
I would expect more passing success this week against a secondary that is allowing 8.9 yards per attempt.
New Mexico vs Utah State Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how New Mexico and Utah State match up statistically:
New Mexico Offense vs. Utah State Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 40 | 124 | |
| Line Yards | 9 | 128 | |
| Pass Success | 61 | 117 | |
| Havoc | 11 | 126 | |
| Finishing Drives | 55 | 127 | |
| Quality Drives | 55 | 129 | |
Utah State Offense vs. New Mexico Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 96 | 130 | |
| Line Yards | 39 | 113 | |
| Pass Success | 53 | 130 | |
| Havoc | 79 | 117 | |
| Finishing Drives | 108 | 133 | |
| Quality Drives | 100 | 133 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 127 | 106 |
| PFF Coverage | 113 | 92 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 133 | 115 |
| Middle 8 | 35 | 130 |
| Seconds per Play | 25.5 (32) | 22.1 (3) |
| Rush Rate | 50% (80) | 44% (117) |
New Mexico vs Utah State Prediction
This is not a contrarian play this week.
Neither of these defenses can be counted on to get stops, and the opposing offenses should take full advantage.
Utah State has found some unexpected success this year airing it out, and New Mexico ranks 130th nationally in EPA per Dropback allowed. New Mexico also ranks 132nd in Passing Success Rate allowed and 83rd in Pass Explosiveness allowed. I would suspect that wide receivers Jalen Royals and Jack Hestera have big games this week for the Aggies. I would also expect a cleaner pocket for Petras to throw from, as New Mexico's defense has recorded just eight sacks on the season.
New Mexico should be able to run the ball against a Utah State run defense that has surrendered 609 rushing yards across the past two weeks. Utah State has been up against it because they allow so much success on first down, so their opponents are consistently in short-yardage situations.
The Aggies rank 127th in EPA per Rush allowed and 133rd Rush Success Rate allowed. The Aggies' front seven has 10 sacks on the season, but I suspect they struggle to get Dampier behind the line of scrimmage. Missed tackles on the quarterback will lead to Dampier creating with his legs or extending pass plays and finding his receivers downfield on broken plays, something he has done well with all season.
These offenses will put on a show this week.
Pick: Over 77.5
New Mexico vs Utah State Start Time, Channel, Streaming, How to Watch
| Location: | Maverik Stadium, Logan, Utah |
| Date: | Saturday, Oct. 19 |
| Kickoff Time: | 4 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | truTV |
New Mexico vs Utah State will be played at Maverik Stadium in Logan, Utah, on Saturday, Oct. 19, at 4 p.m. ET. You can stream the game live on truTV.
New Mexico vs Utah State Betting Trends
- 43% of the bets but 56% of the money is on New Mexico to cover the spread.
- 88% of the bets and 91% of the money is on the under.
- 84% of the tickets but just 43% of the cash is on New Mexico on the moneyline.
New Mexico vs Utah State Weather
