On Saturday, August 31, 2024, we head to Ames, Iowa, where the Iowa State Cyclones will host the North Dakota Fighting Hawks in a Week 1 matchup.
This is the fourth straight season the Cyclones have started their season against an FCS opponent. They usually take care of business outside of an outlier loss in 2016 against an in-state opponent, Northern Iowa. Iowa State will have lofty expectations this year following a 7-6 season with a lot of returning production.
North Dakota also figures to be a solid squad again in the Missouri Valley Conference after a 7-5 season a year ago under head coach Bubba Schweigert.
Let’s examine this matchup more thoroughly and uncover my North Dakota vs. Iowa State prediction.
North Dakota vs Iowa State Prediction
- North Dakota vs. Iowa State Pick: Iowa State -27
My North Dakota-Iowa State best bet is on the Clones to cover the spread, with the best line currently available at FanDuel, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
North Dakota vs Iowa State Odds
| North Dakota Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+30.5 -110 | 52 -110o / -110u | +1550 |
| Iowa State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-30.5 -110 | 52 -110o / -110u | -4500 |
- Spread: North Dakota +30.5 (-110) · Iowa State -30.5 (-110)
- Total: Over/Under 52
- Moneyline: North Dakota +1550 · Iowa State -4500
North Dakota vs Iowa State Preview
North Dakota Betting Preview: Problems on Deck?
North Dakota plays in one of the tougher FCS divisions in the Missouri Valley Conference — primarily due to the South Dakota Jackrabbits playing in that conference. North Dakota figures to try and be competitive once again in that division after finishing 5-3 in conference play.
The biggest offseason question is how they will replace quarterback Tommy Schuster, who transferred in the offseason following four years under center for the Hawks. He'll finish his career at Michigan State.
The Fighting Forks offense is now led by junior quarterback Simon Romfo, who has little experience.
Under Bubba Schweigert, North Dakota is typically rush-heavy. They will likely approach this game with that same look while finding some easy throws to start building some confidence for their new quarterback, who will be seeing potentially the most brutal defense he'll play all year.
Fortunately for Romfo, North Dakota returns its two leading rushers from a year ago, so the Fighting Forks should be able to rely on their experience to hit the right holes and find some room on the ground.
North Dakota’s defense from a year ago struggled mightily when playing some of the top offenses they saw, namely South Dakota State. The defense allowed 26 points per game and didn't do great against the run or the pass. They allowed 4.5 yards per carry and nearly eight yards per pass attempt.
The Hawks will have to rely on controlling the pace in this one to keep the game low-scoring because I do not think their defense can keep pace with Iowa State's offense.
Iowa State Betting Preview: Becht to Lead Cyclones
Coach Matt Campbell and the Iowa State Cyclones enter this year sitting pretty, tied for third nationally in total starters returning from a year ago (19).
Sophomore quarterback Rocco Becht enters his sophomore season after earning Big 12 Freshman of the Year honors in 2023. All five offensive line starters from last year return in front of Becht, and the Cyclones' top two receivers from last year — Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel — are back to flank Becht out wide.
Iowa State averaged 26 points per game last season, and the Cyclones should hit the ground running in 2024. The Cyclones prefer to run the ball, so we may see a rush-heavy script in Week 1, but they can score explosively with Becht under center.
Iowa State was among the Big 12's better defenses, allowing roughly 23 points per game. The Cyclones were excellent against the run (under four yards per carry allowed), forcing opponents into 3rd-and-long situations, where they're prone to make mistakes against Iowa State's ball-hawking secondary (16 interceptions).
Nine starters return from that stop unit, and I expect Coach Campbell to employ the same scheme — be aggressive and force turnovers.
The Cyclones were a bit vulnerable to explosive plays, given their aggressive nature. But with more experience and continuity, they should clean that up.
My North Dakota vs Iowa State Prediction: Expect a Blowout?
2016 marked Matt Campbell’s first season at Iowa State, and a lot has changed with Iowa State’s program since.
Between Iowa State's returning production and North Dakota's lack of — particularly at quarterback — I'm betting that Iowa State picks the Hawks apart. While the Cyclone should run the ball often, I also think they'll create a few turnovers, giving Becht and Co. short fields, where he'll cover the spread.
My Pick: Iowa State -27 (-110, DraftKings)
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How to Watch North Dakota vs Iowa State Live: Start Time, TV Channel, Location
| Location: | Jack Trice Stadium, Ames, IA |
| Date: | Saturday, Aug. 31 |
| Kickoff Time: | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | FS1 |
