Colorado vs. North Dakota State Prediction, Picks & Odds for NCAAF Week 1

The Colorado Buffaloes open their second season under head coach Deion Sanders with an intriguing matchup against the FCS powerhouse North Dakota State Bison.

Kickoff of Colorado-NDSU is at 8 p.m. ET on ESPN, which means we have just a few minutes left to preview my Colorado vs. North Dakota State predictions and my college football Week 1 picks for Thursday night, August 29.

• The Colorado Buffaloes are 10.5-point favorites (-10.5) against North Dakota State, with the total set at 56.5 points scored. NDSU is a +310 underdog to pull off the upset.
• The game is scheduled for 8 p.m. ET on ESPN, although I think we all know kickoff will not be at 8 p.m. on the dot.
• A slim majority of bettors (53%) are betting on Colorado to cover the spread in Week 1.
• The weather is clear in Buffalo for Thursday night, with a very light wind and little to no chance of rain.

The Buffaloes started last season 3-0 before falling off fast the rest of the season, finishing the year 4-8. The Buffs have all the talent in the world at the skill positions, but they were one of the worst teams in the country in the trenches.

Head coach Deion Sanders really put an effort into fixing those issues by going into the transfer portal and adding bigger and better players up front in an effort to take his team to the next level.

North Dakota State, meanwhile, finished 11-4 in 2023 and has proven itself to be the best FCS program over the past 15 years. NDSU isn't the powerhouse it once was, but it's still a really difficult team to beat. They have a new head coach in Tim Polasek, who's no stranger to the North Dakota State program. He spent 10 seasons with Bison from 2006-16, when he left to become Iowa's offensive line coach.

The Bison have won 9 of the last 12 FCS national titles and will without a doubt give Colorado everything it can handle in this prime time matchup. So, where does the Colorado vs. NDSU pick and best bet value lie? Let's dive in, and make sure to check out our best sportsbooks to see which app gets you the most value.

• Pick: North Dakota State 1H Team Total Over 12.5

My Colorado-NDSU best bet tonight is on the Bison to go over their first-half team total, with the best line currently available at bet365, according to our live NCAAF odds page.

• Point Spread: Colorado -10.5 | NDSU +10.5
• Total: Over/Under 55.5
• Moneyline: Colorado -400 | NDSU +310

Thursday, Aug 29

8 p.m. ET

ESPN

Colorado Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
-10.5 -106	55.5 -115o / -105u	-400

NDSU Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
+10.5 -114	55.5 -115o / -105u	+310

Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NCAAF odds here.

Colorado-NDSU is live tonight at 8 p.m. ET on ESPN from Folsom Field in Boulder, Colorado. The game is available for streaming on ESPN's digital properties, YouTube TV, and all streaming platforms that feature ESPN.

Colorado Football: Coach Prime's Return

Colorado has all the talent in the world at the skill positions, but its biggest problem last season was its offensive line.

Quarterback Shedeur Sanders was constantly under pressure and very rarely had a clean pocket to throw from. He dealt with a crowded pocket on 37% of his dropbacks, per PFF, which led to a whopping 49 sacks in 2023.

Colorado brought in five-star freshman left tackle Jordan Seaton and also added three transfers, so the only way to go is up.

Even though he was under pressure a lot, Sanders still put up really good numbers.

Pat Shurmur's pro-style offense really does seem to suit him, especially with the wide receivers he has to throw to. Travis Hunter is always a big play waiting to happen, and Deion also picked up LaJohntay Wester from Florida Atlantic. Wester put up over 1,100 yards for the Owls and hauled in eight touchdown receptions last season.

For Colorado to take the next step, its front seven has to improve. Last season, it finished 113th in EPA/RushAallowed and had the 12th-worst run defense grade in the country, per PFF.

Coach Prime went out and brought in a lot of transfers — including BJ Green from Arizona State, Jaylen Wester from Florida Atlantic and Dayon Hayes from Pittsburgh — to try and become more physical.

The Buffs can only improve from last season, but this first game against North Dakota State's rushing attack is going to be a real test.

The secondary is uber-talented with Travis Hunter and Shilo Sanders returning. Plus, it added Preston Hodge from Liberty. However, the Buffaloes still ranked 113th in EPA/Pass Allowed last season, and while they should improve, North Dakota State will be able to throw on them a bit.

NDSU Football: Two-Quarterback System Leading to Success?

North Dakota State is going to throw a couple of different looks at Colorado because it's currently running a two-quarterback system.

Cam Miller is the main passing quarterback, and he was really efficient last season. His stats came against FCS opponents, so take it with a grain of salt, but he put up a 94.1 PFF passing grade with 28 big-time throws and only five turnover-worthy plays.

North Dakota State does lose its best wide receiver in Eli Green, but it still has a lot of experience returning.

The Bison's second quarterback, Cole Payton, is used in a Taysom Hill-esque role. He'll run a lot out of the wildcat, which gives defenses another aspect to prepare for. Last season, he averaged 7.9 yards per rush, a whopping 5.27 yards per attempt after contact and put up a PFF rushing grade of 85.3.

He's also not completely limited as a passer. He attempted 27 passes last year and averaged over 10 yards per attempt with three touchdowns.

North Dakota State returns both of its starting running backs from last season and also has a freshman in CharMar Brown who may be the best of them all.

Defensively, the Bison's front seven has a lot of depth and experience from last season. They had a pressure rate over 40% on the quarterback despite blitzing very little.

They had 11 players rack up double-digit pressures last season, and nine of them return this year. They run a lot of stunts up front, which is really going to test Colorado's new-look offensive line here in Week 1.

North Dakota State's secondary is a big question mark. They're really young, and tackling in space was a big issue, so going up against Colorado's skill-position players could be less than ideal.

North Dakota State has been an absolute pest to FBS teams over the years. Since 2011, the Bison have a 6-1 record against the FBS and have covered every single game with their only loss coming by three points to Arizona in 2022.

They aren't at their peak anymore, but they without a doubt have the guys in the trenches and the run game to give Colorado some problems.

The biggest issue for North Dakota State will be stopping Colorado's passing attack. I'm not sure it can.

Sanders posted the third-best PFF passing grade in the country with a clean pocket a season ago, so it's going to be paramount for the Bison to beat Colorado's new offensive line and put pressure on him.

I want to target the North Dakota State offense here, especially early on against Colorado's brand-new front seven.

With Miller's ability as a passer and Payton's prowess running the wildcat, the Bison should move the ball with a lot of success. The problems will come if they fall behind and are forced to throw the ball at a high rate, which may end up being the case in the second half.

For what it's worth, Colorado allowed 17.8 points per game in the first half last season, which ranked 113th in college football.

So, I like the North Dakota State first-half team total over 12.5 points.

Pick: North Dakota State 1H Team Total Over 12.5

My college football betting expert colleague Alex Hinton has a Colorado vs. NDSU same-game parlay for Thursday night featuring five picks for this prime time affair. Check out his analysis by clicking above, but if you just want the parlay, here it is:

• Shedeur Sanders Over 2.5 Passing Touchdowns (-146)
• Travis Hunter 70+ Receiving Yards (-144)
• Jimmy Horn Jr. Over 42.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
• TK Marshall Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+102)
• Over 55.5 Alternate Total Points (-184)

• 53% of the bets and 53% of the money are on Colorado to cover the spread.
• 94% of the bets and 91% of the money are on Colorado to win outright.
• 53% of the bets and 70% of the money are on the over.

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