The Notre Dame Fighting Irish take on the Pitt Panthers in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, on Saturday, Nov. 15. Kickoff is set for 12 p.m. ET on ABC.
Notre Dame is favored by 12.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -450. Pitt, meanwhile, enters as a +12.5 underdog and is +350 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 55.5 total points.
Here’s my Notre Dame vs. Pitt prediction and college football picks for Saturday, November 15.
Notre Dame vs Pitt Prediction, Picks
- Notre Dame vs. Pitt Picks: Pitt +11.5 · CJ Carr Over 260.5 Passing Yards
My Pitt vs. Notre Dame best bet is on the Panthers to cover the spread and Fighting Irish quarterback CJ Carr to go over his passing yards prop. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Notre Dame vs Pitt Odds, Spread, Over/Under
| Notre Dame Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-12.5 -110 | 55.5 -105o / -115u | -450 |
| Pittsburgh Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+12.5 -110 | 55.5 -105o / -115u | +350 |
- Notre Dame vs Pitt Spread: Notre Dame -12.5, Pitt +12.5
- Notre Dame vs Pitt Over/Under: 55.5 Points
- Notre Dame vs Pitt Moneyline: Notre Dame -450, Pitt +350
Notre Dame vs Pitt: Need To Know
Why Notre Dame Can Cover
Notre Dame hit its stride in its most recent victory, a 49-10 beatdown of a Navy team without its starting quarterback.
The Fighting Irish continue to field one of the most explosive offenses in the nation, ranking top-20 in both Rush EPA and Pass EPA.
Notre Dame is also the most explosive team in standard downs, as running backs Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price continue to hammer careless defenses.
Defensive coordinator Chris Ash's 3-3-5 defense has improved since its two opening losses to start the season. Notre Dame now has a strength of schedule inside the top 30, ranking top-35 in nearly every category.
A rank of 17th in Finishing Drives allowed shows the Irish's nature of allowing methodical drives before stiffening when opponents get into scoring position.
One way to attack Notre Dame is on the ground, as the Irish sit outside the top 60 in Defensive Line Yards and Stuff Rate with poor Success Rate numbers against man blocking tendencies.
Why Pitt Can Cover
Mason Heintschel took over as the starting quarterback in Week 6 and has not looked back.
The freshman has thrown 12 touchdowns to just five interceptions. However, he has made mistakes under pressure. Heintschel's turnover-worthy play rate has shot up to 6.3% in the 70 dropbacks in a crowded pocket.
The Pitt offensive line also hasn't protected well over the past five games, ranking 94th in Havoc allowed. Keeping a clean pocket will be crucial for the Panthers, as Notre Dame ranks 13th in pass rush.
Defensive coordinator Randy Bates has put together another elite version of the Pittsburgh defense. The 2025 Panthers rank top-five in defensive rush efficiency, Line Yards and Stuff Rate.
The Panthers have been excellent against any run concept, creating a negative EPA against zone read, power, counter and man blocking schemes.
Where Pitt struggles is keeping opponents off the scoreboard in scoring opportunities. The Panthers sit near dead last in opponent red-zone conversions, ranking 111th in Finishing Drives allowed.
How To Make Notre Dame vs Pitt Picks
A few comments from Pitt head coach Pat Narduzzi about the importance of this game had the markets selling the Panthers. Narduzzi mentioned that Notre Dame can "put 100 up on us as long as we win the next two after that," referencing that the goal is the ACC Championship.
The Irish took heavy steam after the comments despite Narduzzi also mentioning the team will "play hard" in Week 12.
Ultimately, Pitt has the ability to stop Notre Dame's ground attack.
Price and Love will use a heavy dose of outside zone against edge rushers Jimmy Scott and Isaiah Neal. Pitt has a 57% Success Rate against outside zone while creating a negative play on 17% of opponent attempts.
Notre Dame's best chance of success will come through the air. The Panthers rank 78th in Pass EPA allowed, so quarterback CJ Carr will have chances to get into scoring position against a Pitt defense that has been plundered in the red zone.
The bigger question is whether or not the Pitt offense can answer against an improved Notre Dame defense.
Explosives from Heintschel will be the key, but Notre Dame ranks 35th in Pass EPA allowed and 18th in pass breakups per game. The heavy man coverage from the Irish will provide a window of mistakes from Heintschel, who has posted a Success Rate of just 45% against the tendency.
Action Network projects Notre Dame as a 6-point favorite, as the market drifts farther in the direction of the Irish in double digits.
While there's no reason to think Pitt doesn't play this game at full effort, there are reasons for backing Carr's passing props.
Pick: Pitt +11.5 · CJ Carr Over 260.5 Passing Yards
Where To Watch Notre Dame vs Pitt Live
- Date: Saturday, Nov. 15
- Time: 12 p.m. ET
- Location: Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
- TV Channel: ABC
Notre Dame vs Pitt Betting Trends
