Notre Dame vs. Texas A&M Preview
- Notre Dame vs Texas A&M kicks off at 7:30 p.m. ET on Saturday live from College Station, Texas, on ABC and ESPN+. It's the first game of the 2024 college football season for both teams.
- No. 20 Texas A&M is currently -2.5 or -3, depending on the sportsbook, meaning the Aggies are favored by about a field goal over No. 7 Notre Dame.
- With plenty of familiarity on both sides of the ball due to transfers and coaching changes, I'm passing on a bet on the spread or moneyline.
- My Notre Dame vs Texas A&M best bet is a pick on the total, as I'm expecting the two teams to get off to a slow start in the first half — and make sure to check out our top sportsbooks list when you place your bets!
There will be no shortage of personal connections when No. 7 Notre Dame travels south into SEC territory to face No. 20 Texas A&M at Kyle Field on Saturday.
New Aggies head coach Mike Elko was a defensive coordinator at Notre Dame, which finished 10-3 in 2023, before taking the same position in College Station. The A&M staff is full of Elko former assistants at Duke with the exception of coordinators Collin Klein from Kansas State and Jay Bateman, recently of Florida.
Those assistants should have plenty of data on the makeup of the Notre Dame roster, as the Elko-led Blue Devils faced Notre Dame last September.
Current Notre Dame head coach Marcus Freeman was successful in landing a quarterback from the transfer portal. Unfortunately for A&M, which was 7-6 last season, the Irish signal-caller is a former two-year starter for Duke under Elko.
The connections don't end there. Notre Dame offensive coordinator Mike Denbrock returns to South Bend after leading LSU's offense with Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback Jayden Daniels. The longtime offensive assistant coached in a game against Texas A&M last season, rattling the Aggies for 42 points to close the 2023 regular season.
Here's my Notre Dame vs Texas A&M predictions and my college football picks for this Week 1 matchup of top 25 teams.
Notre Dame vs. Texas A&M Picks
SPREAD
I'm passing on the spread for Notre Dame-Texas A&M, but if you are betting the spread, make sure to shop around and keep the key number of 3 in mind. If you're betting A&M to cover, grab a -2.5. Conversely, if you're on the Irish, look for Notre Dame +3.
MONEYLINE
I won't be betting on either side to win outright in this primetime matchup, either. Instead, I'm betting an over/under.
TOTAL
My Notre Dame-Texas A&M best bet is on the first-half under, with the best line currently available at DraftKings, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Notre Dame vs Texas A&M Pick: 1H Under 22.5 or Better
Notre Dame vs. Texas A&M Odds
| Notre Dame Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 +102 | 47.5 -115o / -105u | +130 |
| Texas A&M Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -124 | 47.5 -115o / -105u | -156 |
- Notre Dame vs Texas A&M Point Spread: Texas A&M -2.5 | Notre Dame +2.5
- Notre Dame vs Texas A&M Total: Over/Under 47.5
- Notre Dame vs Texas A&M Moneyline: Texas A&M -156 | Notre Dame +130
How to Watch Notre Dame vs. Texas A&M
| Location: | Kyle Field, College Station, TX |
| Date: | Saturday, Aug. 31 |
| Kickoff Time: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ABC |
Texas A&M vs Notre Dame is scheduled to start at 7:30 p.m. ET, although the actual kickoff will likely be a few minutes after that. The game is live from Kyle Field in College Station, TX, on ABC and ESPN+.
Notre Dame vs. Texas A&M Weather
Notre Dame vs. Texas A&M Betting Trends
- 56% of bets but only 39% of the money are on the Texas A&M to cover the spread.
- 83% of bets but just 1% of the money are on Texas A&M to win outright.
- 72% of bets and 62% of the money are on the over.
Notre Dame vs. Texas A&M: College Football Week 1 Picks
Riley Leonard took the ACC by storm in 2022, leading Duke to a nine-win season that included a Military Bowl blowout over UCF.
Not only did Leonard double his big-time throw to turnover-worthy play rate, but the quarterback also accounted for 13 rushing touchdowns on 208 scramble yards and 180 yards off designed runs.
A midseason injury to Leonard's foot required multiple surgeries last year, but the quarterback will be at full strength for Week 1.
With this touchdown, Riley is now the second QB in program history with 10+ rushing and 10+ passing touchdowns in a single season!😈 pic.twitter.com/m8z5xifj8L
— Duke Football (@DukeFOOTBALL) November 12, 2022
Leonard enters a Notre Dame offense that has plenty of carryover at the skill positions.
Running back Jadarian Price posted eye-popping numbers — especially considering the sophomore was recovering from an ACL injury. Price averaged 4.6 yards after contact on 47 rushing attempts for the Irish last season.
The youth movement at the wide receiver position lasts season quickly became one of the most mature groups on the roster. Junior tight end Mitchell Evans and sophomore slot Jaden Greenhouse bring back 67 combined targets.
While the skill positions are a positive coming into 2024, the offensive line is expected to take a step back.
The Irish lost their two best offensive linemen with the departure of Joe Alt and Blake Fisher.
To fill the gap, redshirt freshman Charles Jagusah was brought in as one of the highest-rated tackle prospects. However, the Rock Island, Illinois, native suffered a season-ending injury during camp, leaving Notre Dame with plenty of questions.
Per the Notre Dame depth chart, the tackle positions will be filled by Anthonie Knapp and Aamil Wagner.
In a limited sample, Wagner graded out above average on rushing attempts and poorly in pass blocking in 52 offensive snaps. Knapp is a true freshman who was recruited as the eighth-best interior lineman in the country and now serves on the outside to protect Leonard from further injury.
The bad news for the Notre Dame offensive line is that the Texas A&M defensive front is one of the best in FBS.
Elko's 4-2-5 is a familiar scheme for Aggie defenders who have been on the roster in recent years. Former coordinator DJ Durkin arrived when Elko left for Duke, keeping the same defensive scheme, personnel and blitz rate.
Defensive end Nic Scourton was the most highly sought-after piece in the transfer portal. The Havoc generator posted 28 quarterback hurries and eight sacks for Purdue last season.
Defensive interior Shemar Turner returns to College Station for a fourth season, producing 26 quarterback hurries and 35 pressures from the tackle position.
Elko pulled Klein from Kansas State to run the Aggies offense.
Texas A&M is expected to look similar to the Wildcats' scheme implemented by Chris Klieman, utilizing plenty of 21 and 22 personnel with a heavy lean toward the rush.
Running back Le'Veon Moss will be expected to take on a workhorse role with an injury to rising star Rueben Owens. Depth remains with junior Amari Daniels, who led the team in attempts despite an unexplosive 2.9 yards after contact.
The biggest question for the Texas A&M offense is the health of quarterback Conner Weigman. A foot injury ended his 2023 campaign in the fourth game of the season against Auburn.
The redshirt sophomore has impressed in two seasons with 16 touchdowns to just two interceptions, maintaining a low turnover-worthy play rate of 3.3% in a pressured pocket.
The offensive line finished the season outside the top 100 in pass protection but landed two transfers from the portal, including 32 career starts from Kansas guard Ar'maj Reed-Adams.
Notre Dame is also expected to field one of the nastiest defensive lines in the country under Freeman's 3-3-5. Howard Cross III and Rylie Mills are the most dangerous interior tag team in the country, combining for 63 pressures in passing downs and 57 stops against the rush.
Graduate seniors will make up the edge positions on the depth chart, while linebacker Jack Kiser returns one of the highest tackle and coverage grades on the team.
The secondary is a strength up the middle with Northwestern transfer safety Rod Heard and the return of first-team All-American free safety Xavier Watts.
Texas A&M's point of attack against ND's Cover 1 will be at sophomore cornerback Christian Gray. While Gray played in 12 games last season, his role was limited to just 198 snaps and 19 opponent targets.
Best Bet for Notre Dame vs. Texas A&M
Every potential edge exists for Texas A&M's defensive front to create a massive amount of Havoc against a quarterback coming off a foot injury.
Considering the loss of Jagusah on the Irish offensive line, don't expect the Aggies to drop from a rank of fifth in Defensive Havoc.
While the middle of Notre Dame's offensive line returns experience, Leonard and Price will be heavily utilized in Denbrock's inside zone. Turner, Scourton and the remaining cast of the defensive front are expected to crash gaps and force Leonard to play a bigger role in the rushing attack.
Havoc will also be a consistent theme when Texas A&M possesses the ball, particularly with Klein's tendency to run man, power and inside zone schemes with a two-back set.
There may be no better run-stuffing combination in the country than Cross and Mills. Both are expected to go against transfers filling the Aggies' offensive trench.
Notre Dame and Texas A&M will continue to rank top-10 nationally in Defensive Havoc. Pass breakups, interceptions, tackles for loss, forced fumbles, pressures and sacks are the staples of these two programs that have defensive-minded head coaches.
With 10 mph crosswinds and a slight chance of showers projected at Kyle Field, Mother Nature could contribute to the expected Havoc rate of both teams.
It's also worth noting that Weigman hasn't shown the ability to take on designed runs in Texas A&M's offense to date. With Klein as OC, Kansas State often utilized the quarterback in the run game — something that could be asked of the Texas A&M signal-caller early in the game.
Pick: 1H Under 22.5 or Better
