The expanded College Football Playoff might have been a more welcome sight to Penn State (7-0, 4-0 Big Ten) than any other FBS program in the nation.
A severe winning drought in the series against former East Division opponent Ohio State (6-1, 3-1) has long served to keep the Nittany Lions out of the national title scene.
The losing spell started in 2012 before head coach James Franklin came to State College in 2014. Penn State has won this rivalry game just once in the past 12 games, a 32-21 Beaver Stadium victory in 2016.
Unlike the Nittany Lions, the Buckeyes could be playing in a CFP elimination game with a previous loss to Oregon in Week 6. Coming out of the bye week at home against Nebraska served as a platform to avenge the loss to the Ducks, but Ohio State needed an 8-play, 75-yard drive to cover a near-four touchdown spread.
The stakes could not be higher for Ohio State, which is favored by 3.5 points with an over/under of 45. The game kicks off at 12 p.m. ET and can be streamed live on FOX.
Let's take a look at my Ohio State vs. Penn State predictions and college football picks for Saturday, Nov. 2.
Ohio State vs. Penn State odds
| Ohio State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -115 | 47.5 -105o / -115u | -160 |
| Penn State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -105 | 47.5 -105o / -115u | +135 |
- Ohio State vs Penn State Point Spread: Ohio State -3
- Ohio State vs Penn State Over/Under: 47.5 Total Points
- Ohio State vs Penn State Moneyline: Ohio State -160 · Penn State +135
Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Penn State Nittany Lions prediction
Prediction
My Penn State vs. Ohio State best bet is on the Nittany Lions to cover the spread, with the best line currently available at bet365, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Spread
Ohio State vs Penn State Pick: Penn State +3
Over/Under
PASS
Moneyline
PASS
Ohio State Buckeyes vs Penn State Nittany Lions College Football Game Preview
When Ohio State Has The Ball
Ohio State's trench continues to be dominated on both sides of the ball. The offensive line has been decimated by injury, losing left tackle Josh Simmons for the season against Oregon.
Backup blindside tackle Zen Michalski struggled in nine gap-rushing attempts while giving up four pressures and two sacks in 20 pass-blocking assignments.
Left guard Donovan Jackson is expected to slide over after taking snaps in practice this week, playing left tackle on just four of his 2,045 career snaps.
While the offensive line slips outside the top 50 in pass blocking, the defensive line sits outside the same range in Line Yards and Stuff Rate.
The run stoppers have mid-FBS success against teams that run inside zone, but it's the power rush concepts that have torched the Buckeyes.
Safety Caleb Downs has 12 stops on the season, one key number in supporting the Buckeyes' rank of 40th in rush explosives allowed.
There's a case to be made that Oregon is the best offense on the schedule, as Ohio State allowed the Ducks 7.6 overall yards per play.
When Penn State Has The Ball
There's a possibility James Franklin tuned in to Texas A&M's most recent victory over LSU. The Aggies struggled with a pocket quarterback, moving to a backup with rush abilities to change the dynamic of the game.
The scenario that played out in College Station could be replicated in State College, as Franklin acknowledged there's a different playbook for backup quarterback Beau Pribula.
Beau Pribula is a DAWG pic.twitter.com/RQfboJD0K5
— Barstool Penn State (@PSUBarstool) October 29, 2024
Starting quarterback Drew Allar struggled to get the Penn State offense going against Wisconsin, seeing eight pressures and a drop by wide receiver Julian Fleming.
Allar left the game with a lower-body injury before Pribula gave the Nittany Lions a new dimension to coordinator Andy Kotelnicki's offense.
The former Kansas head coach dipped into his RPO bag to send Pribula on a half-dozen rushing attempts while feasting on the midrange passing game.
Franklin insisted Pribula would change things "dramatically for the defense" with a separate playbook from Allar.
On the other side of the ball, defensive coordinator Tom Allen's 3-3-5 personnel has played at the highest level in college football.
The Nittany Lions rank top-five in numerous defensive categories, including opponent rush explosives, Stuff Rate and Line Yards. Wisconsin was stuffed on 40% of rushing attempts, limiting the Badgers to an overall 34% Success Rate.
Edge Amin Vanover played his most snaps of the season with full health, creating five pressures in 28 opponent pass attempts.
Penn State vs Ohio State Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Penn State and Ohio State match up statistically:
Ohio State Offense vs. Penn State Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 16 | 2 | |
| Line Yards | 7 | 2 | |
| Pass Success | 3 | 29 | |
| Havoc | 23 | 13 | |
| Finishing Drives | 2 | 34 | |
| Quality Drives | 26 | 21 | |
Penn State Offense vs. Ohio State Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 12 | 10 |  |
| Line Yards | 17 | 53 | |
| Pass Success | 2 | 18 | |
| Havoc | 6 | 11 | |
| Finishing Drives | 13 | 1 | |
| Quality Drives | 8 | 4 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 30 | 20 |
| PFF Coverage | 20 | 17 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 51 | 81 |
| Middle 8 | 42 | 18 |
| Seconds per Play | 28.5 (99) | 29.1 (112) |
| Rush Rate | 54% (60) | 59% (29) |
Ohio State vs Penn State Pick
A number of offensive coordinators under Franklin have struggled to beat Ohio State, from Mike Yurcich to Kirk Ciarrocca. However, Kotelnicki was the hottest name on the market this past offseason after calling plays for the electric Kansas Jayhawks under former Buffalo head coach Lance Leipold.
Kotelnicki uses one of the highest amounts of pre-snap motion and shifts in football, all designed to get the defense to tip its blitzing attempts. The triple option within a spread concept fits Pribula's skill set, similar to Kansas quarterback Jalon Daniels.
Kotelnicki has faced Ohio State defensive coordinator Jim Knowles in the past, but Knowles' Oklahoma State team routed Kansas.
Knowles' defense held Kotelnicki's offense to just three points, but it was Leipold's inaugural season in Lawrence as the Jayhawks finished with two wins.
The former Kansas coordinator will have plenty of notes to study about Knowles' aggressive nickel package.
The Penn State offensive line ranks top-20 in Line Yards and Havoc allowed, indicating clear rushing lanes and pockets for passing.
More importantly, the Nittany Lions have dominated in rushing attempts using power concepts with a 65% Success Rate and a high EPA (Expected Points Added) of 0.64.
Ohio State has been shredded in defending power rushing attempts with a 37% Success Rate. Nicholas Singleton has a 43% breakaway rate, creating a double-digit run in every appearance this season.
The Ohio State offense will look to keep the methodical drives going with quarterback Will Howard and running back Quinshon Judkins. The biggest run concept for offensive coordinator Chip Kelly is inside zone, a scheme the Penn State defense has shut down this season, allowing opponents a 38% Success Rate.
West Virginia mobile quarterback Garrett Greene was limited to just five yards on 10 rushing attempts against PSU, while Illinois' Luke Altmyer was sacked seven times.
The biggest issue for Ohio State's run game is the lack of missed tackles created, ranking 86th in FBS, per Sport Source Analytics.
Ultimately, Pribula and Kotelnicki are the wild cards needed topple an Ohio State defense that allowed just a single touchdown to Penn State last year.
If Allar is healthy enough to play, expect Penn State to take aim at cornerback Denzel Burke, who gave up catches on all eight targets to the Ducks at 22.3 yards per catch.
When Pribula is under center, expect minimal zone read and more power concepts from Singleton and Kaytron Allen with plenty of success.
Action Network's Betting Power Ratings have Penn State as the tiniest of favorites when factoring in home-field advantage at Beaver Stadium.
Both the Ohio State offensive and defensive lines are outside the top 50 in Line Yards, so the Nittany Lions should find success moving the pocket and producing quality drives.
For the Buckeyes' offensive line, health should continue to hinder the left side and continue to complicate rush and passing attempts.
Pick: Penn State +3 or Better
Penn State vs Ohio State Start Time, Channel, Streaming, How to Watch
| Location: | Beaver Stadium, State College, PA |
| Date: | Saturday, Nov. 2 |
| Kickoff Time: | 12 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | FOX |
Ohio State takes on Penn State in State College on Saturday at 12 p.m. ET on FOX.
Penn State vs Ohio State Betting Trends
- 72% of bets and 85% of the money are on Ohio State to cover the spread
- 68% of bets and 36% of the money are on the over
Betting trends via our live, updating NCAAF public betting & money percentages page.
Penn State vs Ohio State Weather
