The Ole Miss Rebels (5-1, 1-1 SEC) and LSU Tigers (4-1, 1-0) meet for a massive game in the SEC in Baton Rouge on Saturday, Oct. 12. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET on ABC and can be streamed on YouTube TV.
Ole Miss rebounded from its upset loss to Kentucky by beating South Carolina on the road, 27-3, in a very dominant defensive performance.
The Rebels' offensive numbers have taken a dip since they entered SEC play, and the rushing attack really needs to get going here on Saturday night if they're going to escape Death Valley with a win.
LSU is coming off a bye and has looked good since its opening 27-20 loss to USC.
The Tigers had one scare against South Carolina on the road but have otherwise been dominant in their other three wins. This is their first big home game of the season in front of one of the best crowds in college football, so they will without a doubt be a live underdog.
Ole Miss enters as a -3.5 favorite with an over/under of 62.
Read on for my Ole Miss vs LSU predictions and college football picks for Saturday, Oct. 12.
Ole Miss vs LSU Odds, Pick
| Ole Miss Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -110 | 64.5 -110o / -110u | -170 |
| LSU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -110 | 64.5 -110o / -110u | +143 |
- Ole Miss vs LSU spread: Ole Miss -3.5
- Ole Miss vs LSU over/under: 64.5 points
- Ole Miss vs LSU moneyline: Ole Miss -170
- Ole Miss vs LSU pick: Under 64.5
My LSU vs Ole Miss bet is on both teams to go under the total, with the best line currently available at Caesars, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Ole Miss vs LSU Betting Preview
Ole Miss Football
Lane Kiffin's offense had been dominating everyone, but teams started to figure it out once it entered SEC play.
In the Rebels' first four games of the season, they were the No. 1 offense in the country, averaging well over nine yards per play. They've still been moving the ball in their last two games against Kentucky and South Carolina with an average of 6.3 yards per play, but converting their scoring opportunities has been a big issue.
Ole Miss may be 25th overall in Finishing Drives, but in its two SEC contests, it's averaging just 3.7 points per opportunity, which would put it closer to the FBS average.
Quarterback Jaxson Dart has been incredible, as he leads the country in Passing EPA and also boasts the nation's highest PFF passing grade at 91.8.
The reason for that? His offensive line has done a great job in pass protection, and there's not a better quarterback in the country when throwing from a clean pocket.
Dart has been pressured more in the last two games, and while he can still make big-time throws from a crowded pocket, his adjusted completion percentage drops from 82.3% to 58.7% when he's pressured.
The other question is how effective Ole Miss' rushing attack is going to be in this game. In the last two games, it has averaged just 3.3 yards per carry. However, LSU has a pretty stout defensive front that ranks 34th in Defensive Line Yards.
On the other side of the ball, Ole Miss has a really good defense. Last year, its biggest problem by far was giving up big plays, as it ranked 129th in the country in explosiveness allowed.
However, defensive coordinator Pete Golding seems to have turned things around this season, as the Rebels rank third nationally in EPA/Play
Ole Miss' biggest task in this game will be stopping the run. Luckily for the Rebels, they have a really good defensive front that's allowing just 1.9 yards per carry, which is the best mark in the country.
In this game, though, it's also going to have to stop Garrett Nussmeier and the LSU passing attack. Well, the Rebels will also be well-equipped to do that. Ole Miss ranks eighth in Passing Success Rate Allowed and 10th in explosive passing plays allowed.
LSU Football
Nussmeier has been really good for LSU this season and has the Tigers fifth nationally in Passing Success Rate. Nussmeier is averaging 8.3 yards per attempt with an 84.6 PFF passing grade, and it's because of his ability to throw the ball deep.
On passes over 10 yards in the air, Nussmeier has a PFF passing grade of over 85 with a completion percentage well above 50%.
The problem is that Nussmeier hasn't faced an elite secondary this season. The best one he's faced is South Carolina's, and that was by far his worst game of the season. He posted two turnover-worth plays, and it's the only game in which he hasn't averaged over seven yards per attempt.
Even though he's at home, this Ole Miss will be a big step up in competition.
Unfortunately for Nussmeier, LSU doesn't have much of a run game right now. The Tigers rank 82nd in Rushing Success Rate and are now throwing the ball on 60% of their offensive plays.
They likely won't run the ball well against one of the best run defenses in the country on Saturday, which will limit their offense and put a lot of pressure on Nussmeier.
On the other side, LSU's defense has improved a lot from last season, mainly against the run. Last year, the Tigers sat outside the top 100 in pretty much every single defensive rushing metric, but they're now 47th in EPA/Rush Allowed and 34th in Defensive Line Yards.
Their worry in this game will be stopping Dart. The one good quarterback LSU has faced was USC's Miller Moss, and he torched it for 378 yards and five big-time throws.
Ole Miss vs LSU Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Ole Miss and LSU match up statistically:
Ole Miss Offense vs. LSU Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 4 | 44 | |
| Line Yards | 10 | 34 | |
| Pass Success | 2 | 109 | |
| Havoc | 28 | 24 |  |
| Finishing Drives | 25 | 49 | |
| Quality Drives | 12 | 78 | |
LSU Offense vs. Ole Miss Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 82 | 2 | |
| Line Yards | 60 | 4 | |
| Pass Success | 5 | 8 | |
| Havoc | 2 | 1 | |
| Finishing Drives | 18 | 4 | |
| Quality Drives | 23 | 4 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 3 | 28 |
| PFF Coverage | 28 | 114 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 13 | 63 |
| Middle 8 | 38 | 66 |
| Seconds per Play | 22.5 (6) | 28.1 (85) |
| Rush Rate | 54% (62) | 40% (127) |
Ole Miss vs LSU Prediction
When you look at the surface of these two teams, this game looks like it's going over. However, when you dig deeper, both offenses haven't been that good when they've played quality competition.
For LSU to win this game, it'll have to slow down the tempo. The Tigers aren't going to survive a track meet with Kiffin's offense, especially if they're one-dimensional.
Ole Miss may have great offensive numbers overall, but its inability to run the ball against South Carolina and Kentucky limits how effective it can actually be in opening things up for Dart in the passing game.
To hit an over this high, you'll need a lot of big plays, but I'm not sure that's going to happen.
Both teams are top-30 in terms of PFF tackling grade and top-50 in Finishing Drives Allowed.
The under on totals of 60 points or more have been hitting at a pretty high rate this season, and we've already seen the total in this game drop two points from where it opened.
Plus, all five of Ole Miss' games this season against FBS opponents have gone under the closing total as well.
UNDERs are 71-42 (63%) in games with totals of 60 or more points this college football season per @EvanHAbrams.
There are 11 games with totals of 60 or more points in Week 7 including LSU-Ole Miss.
77% of bets are on LSU-Ole Miss UNDER 63.5 points at #BetMGMpic.twitter.com/Q1pgaUMS9a
— John Ewing (@johnewing) October 9, 2024
I only have 55.9 points projected for this game, so I like the value on under 62.5 points.
Pick: Under 64.5 (-110, Ceasars)
Ole Miss vs LSU Start Time, TV Channel, How to Watch
| Location: | Tiger Stadium. Baton Rouge, LA |
| Date: | Saturday, Oct. 12 |
| Kickoff Time: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ABC |
LSU vs Ole Miss Betting Trends
- Ole Miss has garnered 73% of the tickets and 77% of the money.
- The over has landed 42% of bets and 47% of the cash.
LSU vs Ole Miss Weather
