No matter who’s playing, there’s nothing quite like an SEC duel. This time, it’s the Ole Miss Rebels (4-1) heading to Columbia to battle the South Carolina Gamecocks (3-1).
The Rebels had a wake-up call last week after losing to Kentucky 20-17. Prior to last week, Ole Miss outscored its opponents 220-22. This week, the Rebels are a little vulnerable heading into Columbia against the Gamecocks, who have been rolling of late.
After destroying Akron 50-7, South Carolina enjoyed itself a nice bye week. I’ll be the first to admit I was down on this program earlier in the season, but the Gamecocks have shown to be legit, especially after coming down to the wire against LSU in a 36-33 loss in Week 3.
So, where does the betting value lie in this SEC matchup? Take a look at my Ole Miss vs. South Carolina predictions and my college football picks for Saturday.
Ole Miss vs South Carolina Odds, Pick
| Ole Miss Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-9.5 -110 | 53 -110o / -110u | -340 |
| S. Carolina Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+9.5 -110 | 53 -110o / -110u | +270 |
- Ole Miss vs South Carolina spread: Ole Miss -9.5
- Ole Miss vs South Carolina over/under: 53 points
- Ole Miss vs South Carolina moneyline: Ole Miss -340
- Ole Miss vs South Carolina pick: Ole Miss -8.5 Alt Spread
Ole Miss vs South Carolina Preview
Jaxson Dart has led Ole Miss to a top-three offense in the nation. The only difference is that it’s not hard to look good against teams like Furman, Middle Tennessee, Wake Forest and Georgia Southern.
Dart had himself a solid game, though, against Kentucky, throwing for 261 yards and a touchdown. He’s also been completing passes at a second-best 77.8% rate.
A Lane Kiffin-run team is always going to be run and gun, and Dart is the type of player who has proven to thrive in an offense like this. For reference, the Rebels are second in Passing Play Success Rate, seventh in PPA and fifth in Passing Down SR.
It’s also not hard when he has receivers that create separation at a high level. Tre Harris leads the nation in receiving yards and averages 160 yards per game, Cayden Lee is as efficient as it gets, and Antwane Wells Jr. is a big-play receiver.
After losing Quinshon Judkins to the transfer portal, I was curious as to how this run game would turn out. Both Henry Parrish Jr. and Matt Jones took the reins and exceeded all expectations, each averaging over six yards per carry. Ole Miss is fifth in rushing PPA and ninth in Success Rate while also holding the 29th most explosive run game.
I’d be on the lookout for the defensive line, as the Rebels are sixth in the FBS, averaging 3.5 sacks per game. Princely Umanmielen, along with JJ Pegues and Jared Ivey, are tanks that cause Havoc. At the same time, Pooh Paul and Suntarine Perkins are big playmakers as well.
This is a defense that ranks second in Rushing Defense SR, ninth in Havoc, and ninth in Passing Down PPA.
I was not a believer in LaNorris Sellers to start the season, and to a certain extent, I’m still a little low on him. He completes passes at a mild 54% rate and is the reason why South Carolina is 122nd in Passing Play SR and 111th in Passing Down SR.
I actually saw a lot more promise for this team with Robby Ashford as the starter when Sellers was injured against Akron, but Shane Beamer seems more comfortable moving forward with Sellers.
With Sellers taking the snaps, it caps this offense. I’ve seen a lot of potential with his arm, but he’s far too inconsistent and looks to pass at a bottom-10 rate.
The run game will be utilized a ton more, with Raheim Sanders taking the bulk of the carries. The Gamecocks are 11th in rushing plays rate but are 114th in Success Rate.
Sanders is a fine back, but it’s either he or Sellers running the ball and Sanders only averages five yards per carry. With how much South Carolina runs the ball, he should be averaging a bit more.
Defensively, this team can be up-and-down. It’s hard to ignore the edge rush forces that are Kyle Kennard and Dylan Stewart. Additionally, in the secondary, Jaden Kilgore and O’Donnell Fortune will have their work cut out for them with a program that likes to sling it.
The numbers aren’t eye-popping on the defensive end. The Gamecocks do an OK job at defending passes but aren’t very good at stopping the run. Needless to say, it could be a long game in Columbia.
Ole Miss Rebels vs South Carolina Gamecocks Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Ole Miss and South Carolina match up statistically:
Ole Miss Offense vs. South Carolina Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 3 | 75 | |
| Line Yards | 9 | 67 | |
| Pass Success | 2 | 9 | |
| Havoc | 20 | 20 |  |
| Finishing Drives | 22 | 46 | |
| Quality Drives | 12 | 29 | |
South Carolina Offense vs. Ole Miss Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 94 | 2 | |
| Line Yards | 100 | 2 | |
| Pass Success | 105 | 15 | |
| Havoc | 132 | 2 | |
| Finishing Drives | 49 | 7 | |
| Quality Drives | 105 | 7 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 12 | 119 |
| PFF Coverage | 45 | 13 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 24 | 46 |
| Middle 8 | 53 | 124 |
| Seconds per Play | 22.2 (6) | 28.1 (80) |
| Rush Rate | 53% (73) | 69% (8) |
Ole Miss Rebels vs South Carolina Gamecocks Prediction
Ole Miss is listed as a 9-point favorite, but I’m going to go a half-point under that.
Gut feeling, I think the Rebels will win this game comfortably, especially with Sellers at the helm, but last week, I was burned by two bets that missed by a half point.
Call me superstitious if you want, but I’m in it to win. When I drop the spread from -9 to -8.5, the odds go from -108 to -117 and are much easier for me to digest.
Will South Carolina burn me like it did when I bet against the Gamecocks versus Kentucky? I can’t see it. Dart is a much more complete quarterback than Brock Vandagriff.
If you feel comfortable going -9, have at it. I’m sticking with -8.5.
Pick: Ole Miss -8.5 Alt Spread
How to Watch South Carolina vs Ole Miss Live: Start Time, TV Channel, Location
| Location: | Williams-Brice Stadium, Columbia, SC |
| Date: | Saturday, Oct. 5 |
| Kickoff Time: | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPN |
Ole Miss vs South Carolina Betting Trends
- 56% of the tickets and 73% of the money is placed toward South Carolina covering the spread.
- 72% of the bets and 93% of the money is targeted for the Over.
- Ole Miss moneyline has 92% of the bets.
South Carolina vs Ole Miss Weather
