The Illinois Fighting Illini (6-1, 3-1 Big Ten) enter this week 6-1 after an impressive home win over Michigan last week.
They now sit at No. 20 in the AP Poll after last week's win, and they're looking to pull a historic upset on the road against the No. 1 team in the country, the Oregon Ducks (7-0, 4-0).
Oregon is now 7-0 on the season and has an extra day of rest after blanking Purdue by a score of 35-0 last Friday night.
The Ducks started the season slow but survived at home against Idaho and Boise State in the first two weeks of the year. Since then, they've have been the clear best team in the country.
While SEC opponents continue to pick each other off, Oregon earned its victory at home over Ohio State and has held down the top spot in the polls ever since.
The sportsbooks expect a blowout, as Oregon enters this game as a 21.5-point favorite. If it does play out that way, Oregon will likely pound the ball on the ground.
The Ducks rank 30th nationally in Rush Success Rate, and Oregon ranks just 118th in Rush Success Rate allowed. Other areas of this game are more evenly matched, however.
One noticeable absence is Illinois starting running back Kaden Feagin. Without their workhorse, the Illini will need to find other ways to punch the ball in the end zone.
Those factors are the ones that we have leaned into for this same-game parlay.
Let's get to my Oregon vs. Illinois picks, predictions and same-game parlay for college football Week 9.
Oregon vs. Illinois Odds, Spread, Betting Line
| Oregon Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-22 -110 | 54 -112o / -108u | -1800 |
| Illinois Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+22 -110 | 54 -112o / -108u | +1000 |
- Oregon vs. Illinois Spread: Oregon -21.5
- Oregon vs. Illinois Over/Under: 54 Points
- Oregon vs. Illinois Moneyline: Oregon -1800 · Illinois +1000
Oregon vs. Illinois Picks, Predictions, Parlay
- Jordan James 100+ Rushing Yards (-120)
- Jordan James 1+ Touchdowns (-400)
- Luke Altmyer Under 199.5 Passing Yards (-114)
- Luke Altmyer 1+ Passing Touchdowns (-310)
Parlay Odds: +519 via FanDuel
Please always remember to bet responsibly. SGPs are long shots for a reason.
Oregon Prop: Jordan James 100+ Rushing Yards & 1+ Touchdown
Junior running back Jordan James has been incredible this season, and barring blowouts where he finds the bench early, he has been as consistent of a workhorse as any non-Ashton Jeanty back in all of college football.
James is averaging over 102 yards rushing per game, and that includes last week’s 10-carry, 50-yard performance in a 35-0 victory over Purdue where James got less involved than normal simply due to the score.
Prior to last week’s win, James had hit the century mark in four of his last five games. He received 20 or more carries in each of his three previous games against UCLA, Michigan State and Ohio State. The Ducks beat UCLA and Michigan State by 21, so he has proven that he can even cross the 100-yard mark in big wins.
Against the Illinois defense, this should be even easier.
The Illini rank 118th in Rush Success Rate allowed, and their run defense has been far worse than their pass defense (52nd in Pass Success Rate allowed).
Expect Oregon to get out to an early lead and pound the ground with James for four quarters.
We’re adding a James touchdown as well, which has been one of the safest props to bet in recent weeks. James has scored in five straight games and in six of his seven games this year.
Even against Purdue, James found the end zone twice despite a smaller workload.
Over 100 yards and a touchdown? That’s an easy day at the office for James.
Illinois Prop: Luke Altmyer Under 199.5 Passing Yards & 1+ Passing Touchdowns
For our final two legs, we turn our attention to Illinois quarterback Luke Altmyer.
Altmyer has been one of the biggest reasons for the Illini’s surprising 6-1 start, but a closer look at his game logs suggests a trend.
Altmyer has padded his passing stats against cupcake opponents and has struggled against the best defenses he has faced.
The former Ole Miss Rebel is coming off his worst performance of the year against Michigan, a 9-for-18 passing effort for just 80 yards. Against a similarly tough defense earlier this season, Altmyer threw 25 times for just 185 yards on the road at Penn State.
In the Penn State game, Altmyer was playing from behind for much of the second half, and he still didn't top 200 yards.
Oregon’s defense is not as tough as Michigan or Penn State’s, but the size and speed difference will still be there.
And more importantly, Oregon’s pass defense is its biggest strength. The Ducks rank 21st in the country in Pass Success Rate allowed.
But even if Altmyer isn’t pushing the ball downfield aggressively, he's still a safe bet to throw at least one passing touchdown — even moreso when you consider that Altmyer will be without the team’s leading rusher for the second straight week.
Last week, Illinois still tried to manage the game on the ground without Feagin. It likely will attempt to do the same here, but when the team gets into striking distance, it will be Altmyer’s arm that they rely upon to find the end zone.
Altmyer has thrown at least one touchdown in five consecutive games, and he has 15 touchdowns on the year.
Less than 200 yards, one touchdown through the air. Add it to our parlay, and we get +519 odds.
