The No. 9 Oregon Ducks (7-1) take on the No. 20 Iowa Hawkeyes (6-2) in Iowa City, Iowa, on Saturday, Nov. 8. Kickoff is set for 3:30 p.m. ET on CBS.
Oregon is favored by 6 points on the spread with a moneyline of -240. Iowa, meanwhile, enters as a +6 underdog and is +195 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 40.5 total points.
Here’s my Oregon vs. Iowa prediction and college football picks for Saturday, November 8.
Oregon vs Iowa Prediction, Picks
- Oregon vs. Iowa Pick: Over 41 (-120) · Jordon Davison Over 40.5 Rushing Yards
My Iowa vs. Oregon best bet is on both teams to go over the total and Ducks running back Jordon Davison to go over his rushing yardage prop.
. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Oregon vs Iowa Odds, Spread
| Oregon Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6 -110 | 40.5 -110o / -110u | -240 |
| Iowa Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6 -110 | 40.5 -110o / -110u | +195 |
- Oregon vs Iowa Spread: Oregon -6, Iowa +6
- Oregon vs Iowa Over/Under: 40.5 Points
- Oregon vs Iowa Moneyline: Oregon -240, Iowa +195
Oregon vs Iowa: Need To Know
Oregon Preview
The bye week came at a good time for Oregon after a sluggish 21-7 home victory over Wisconsin.
The Ducks struggled in scoring opportunities and generated only a single methodical drive against the Badgers.
Quarterback Dante Moore failed to record a touchdown pass or big-time throw, but running back Jordon Davison upped his rushing touchdown total to 10 on the season.
The Ducks continue to be one of the more elite offenses in the nation, but a dip in offensive momentum killer and Moore's on-target rate (78th) should be monitored.
The UCLA transfer has struggled in passing attempts against teams that run Cover 2, generating a modest 45% Success Rate and a neutral EPA.
Although the Badgers were stuffed at the national average rate, Oregon continues to struggle with stopping the run.
Defensive coordinator Tosh Lupoi's unit sits outside the top 100 in Stuff Rate, a key factor in Penn State generating 4.3 yards per play on the ground earlier this season.
The Ducks have a mid-FBS rank against most run concepts, but the amount of explosives allowed has haunted the box scores. The Oregon defense ranks 69th in Rush EPA allowed, supporting a negative EPA Per Play against zone read, man and power concepts.
Iowa Hawkeyes Preview
The Iowa ground attack has been rolling over the last few Big Ten games.
The Hawkeyes flexed for 5.8 yards per play in 36 attempts against Wisconsin and followed that up with a massive 7.4 yards per play on 33 rushing attempts against Penn State.
The success has been based on outside zone read, as the Hawkeyes boast a 56% Success Rate in more than 170 attempts.
Quarterback Mark Gronowski and running back Kamari Moulton have dominated recent opponents and have combined for 23 runs that went longer than 10 yards.
Defensive coordinator Phil Parker has produced another stout Iowa stop unit, ranking top-10 in generating a pass rush and in opponent quality drives.
The one major gap in preventing Iowa from being a Big Ten-contending defense comes against the rush, ranking near mid-FBS in Success Rate allowed and Defensive Line Yards.
The Hawkeyes have been excellent against outside zone, but have posted a low 41% Success Rate against man blocking concepts.
How To Make Oregon vs Iowa Picks, Bets
The key to shutting down the Iowa offense is getting the Hawkeyes behind the sticks.
Gronowski leads an offense that ranks 31st in standard downs Success Rate and 130th in passing downs Success Rate.
The former South Dakota State quarterback has generated a rank of 121st in on-target rate, per Sports Info Solutions, measuring the ability to hit a target in stride.
Iowa will more than likely line up in 12 personnel and run outside zone, a tendency used on 115 attempts this season.
Oregon has produced a quality Success Rate against the two-tight end rush concept at 49%, generating a negative play on 15% of opponent attempts.
Iowa likely won't have much success in passing downs, as the Ducks rank sixth in coverage, per PFF. The Hawkeyes will use play-action when faced with long distances to go, but Oregon has been excellent against those designed plays with a 58% Success Rate.
There are reasons to believe Moore will keep passes behind the line of scrimmage. Iowa's second-heaviest coverage is Cover 2, which Moore struggles with.
The Ducks will look to hit short routes and take advantage of an Iowa defense that's 57th in tackling and 98th in broken tackles allowed.
Before Moore hits the passing game, Oregon head coach Dan Lanning will be dedicated to establishing the run. That will equate to Davison getting the most attempts in a timeshare after he attempted six rushes in man blocking schemes against Wisconsin in Week 9.
Action Network projects Oregon as a 5-point favorite, giving Iowa minimal value unless a flat touchdown becomes available in the market.
However, the total calls for the game to fall at 50 points, with the current market hovering around the key number of 41.
Iowa special teams scores are always on the table, but an advantage in rush explosives for Oregon against a Hawkeyes defense that fails to tackle could produce quick points.
Look for Iowa to own the trench in rushing attempts, generating methodical scoring attempts. Oregon will combat with rush explosives, while both teams are excellent at producing solid field position through special teams.
Pick: Over 41 (-120) · Jordon Davison Over 40.5 Rushing Yards
Where To Watch Oregon vs Iowa Live
- Date: Saturday, Nov. 8
- Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
- Location: Kinnick Stadium, Iowa City, Iowa
- TV Channel: CBS
Oregon vs Iowa Betting Trends
